Reintroducing the Football Whispers Index: Transfer rumour likelihood rated out of 100

Football Whispers is delighted to announce the return of the new and improved Football Whispers Index – a unique, ground-breaking and industry-leading tool that scores transfer rumours out of 100 based on how feasible and likely they are to actually happen.

Analysing every factor of a possible transfer, the tool generates an overall Transfer Probability Index (TPI) score which reflects the chances of a rumour actually coming to fruition.

Anything from 80 up is deemed ‘Very Likely', 65 to 79 is ‘Likely', 50 to 64 is ‘Possible', 35 to 49 is ‘Unlikely', and 34 or below is ‘Very Unlikely'.

The model also breaks down the individual scores in the five key pillars, for transparency on how the overall TPI was decided, as well as outlining the key determining factors for each of those pillars.

What the Football Whispers Index is actually measuring

There are many elements needed for a transfer to go through, and breaking those down – through facts, data and circumstance – allows the Football Whispers Index to separate the noise from the genuine possibilities.

Financial viability: Can the buying club afford it? Among other things, this measures the rumoured cost of the transfer fee and subsequent wages against the club's revenue. It also takes into account factors such as spending-rule headroom and how long is left on the player's contract.

Buying club need: What is the motivation for the buying club? This measures the incentive of the buyers – clubs targeting a clear gap in the squad, or targeting a clear upgrade on their current options, naturally score higher in this pillar. The model also considers whether the player's age and style fits how the club normally recruits.

Player motivation: Why would the player want the move? This assesses whether the move is a step up or down financially and sporting-wise, probable differences in game-time, and any overtures he and the people around him have given in public.

Selling club incentive: Does the player's current club want, or need, to sell? Player power is growing by the year, but it still takes the selling club to accept an offer for a deal to go through. If they dig in their heels, don't need the money, have not been linked with any replacements, do not want to sell to a rival or have insisted the player is not for sale, that would affect this pillar's score.

Market momentum: How trustworthy and reputable are the sources? This mainly scores the depth, substance and breadth of a rumour, but also takes into account factors such as the timing in the window and whether there is a concrete link such as a manager who has worked with the player before.

After each of those pillars have been scored, a second layer adjusts it for other external factors. For example how many competitors are in for the same player, how good those competitors are, how far down the buying club's shortlist the player sits, how far the negotiation has got, and much more.

This ensures that, even if a player appears to be a perfect fit for one club but is already close to joining another one, their TPI score remains accurate.

Our team of transfer experts then verify every score before it is published, adjusting for any notable factors the algorithm may have missed.

Where the Football Whispers Index came from

The original Football Whispers Index launched in 2016 as the world's first transfer predictor, built with computer scientists at the University of Sheffield, and it rated rumours on a five-point scale.

That version worked by measuring how much a rumour was being talked about online, how trustworthy the people talking were, and how recently they had said it.

It was a very good answer to the question of which rumours were loudest, being used by outlets such as Sky Sports and ESPN and reaching around two million people a month at its peak.

This model expands on that rich heritage to not only determine which rumours are loudest, but also evaluate which are the most likely, viable and make the most sense.

Volume and reputation still carries plenty of weight in the market momentum pillar – for example, a story broken by a tier-one source and backed up by two more independent outlets is worth more than one ‘broken' by a burner account.

However, a rumour can be widespread and still be dead. The new model dilutes that previous direct correlation between column inches and likelihood, taking a much wider spectrum of factors into account, all of which have a genuine impact on whether a deal can go through or not.

So the new Index weighs the noise against the money, the squad, the contract, the player's own incentives and the state of the negotiation, and gives you the number that comes out of all of it.

What you will see on the site

Every rumour we score gets a card with the overall score, the likelihood band and a quick verdict, plus scores for each pillar to break down what sits behind it.

The scores for each of the five pillars then get their own explanation, with the most relevant and heavily-weighted factors clearly outlined, before a verdict that answers the ultimate question: will this deal happen or not?

Scores move as stories move, so a deal that stalls over a fee will drop, and one that reaches agreed personal terms will jump. If a rumour is still alive, our TPI scores are live and regularly updated to give accurate depictions depending on the latest developments.

We do not promise to get every score right – the unpredictable nature of the transfer market means that no model will be 100% accurate – but we believe that the new Football Whispers Index provides the world's most comprehensive and realistic measure available of a transfer's likelihood.

We hope you agree!

---

The new Football Whispers Index model was designed and built by Barney Corkhill.