Taylor Harwood-Bellis to Aston Villa: Will £30m Southampton transfer happen? Football Whispers Index score

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Taylor Harwood-Bellis to Aston Villa: Will £30m Southampton transfer happen? Football Whispers Index score
Will Aston Villa sign Taylor Harwood-Bellis? Photo by Iconsport/PA Images/DeFodi Images


Aston Villa have had an £30m bid for Southampton centre-back Taylor Harwood-Bellis accepted, according to The Athletic, as Unai Emery looks to rebuild his defence following Ezri Konsa's £55m move to Arsenal.

Southampton had already turned down Benfica's £17m offer for the 24-year-old in August, with the Saints holding out for a fee closer to £30m for their captain.

Harwood-Bellis handed in a transfer request on 17 August, though that approach was reported to be in pursuit of a move to Portugal rather than the Midlands, but his stance has seemingly now changed.

Here, the Football Whispers Index assesses how likely Villa are to sign Harwood-Bellis.

Taylor Harwood-Bellis to Aston Villa rated ‘Very likely'

Taylor Harwood-Bellis to Aston Villa transfer chances: Football Whispers Index
Football Whispers Index: Transfer predictor

Taylor Harwood-Bellis to Aston Villa

Very likely
Villa and Southampton have agreed a £30m package, with only a medical and paperwork left before the deal is completed.
Updated
Financial viability16 / 25
Buying club need20 / 20
Player motivation12 / 15
Selling club incentive7 / 20
Market momentum17 / 20
Financial viability16 / 25
  • Villa have agreed a £30m package for Harwood-Bellis, made up of a £25m guaranteed fee and £5m in bonuses, well above their original £18m opening bid.
  • Aston Villa's top earner, Emiliano Martinez, is on £150,000 a week, more than nineteen times Harwood-Bellis's current £7,500 weekly wage at Southampton.
  • Uefa fined Aston Villa in July for breaching financial fair play rules, even as the club has spent over £150m this summer on Johan Manzambi, Zion Suzuki, Joao Gomes, Matteo Ruggeri and an £18m obligation-to-buy deal for Aaron Wan-Bissaka, largely funded by selling Morgan Rogers to Chelsea for £117m.
  • Harwood-Bellis has two years left on the four-year deal he signed at Southampton in July 2024, running to 30 June 2028.
Buying club need20 / 20
  • Aston Villa agreed a deal worth more than £50m to sell centre-back Ezri Konsa to Arsenal on 19 August, leaving a gap at the heart of Unai Emery's defence.
  • Villa's Premier League win rate drops from 45% with Konsa in the side to 28.1% without him, according to analysis from Read Aston Villa.
  • Tyrone Mings, 33, is no longer first-choice and could be sold this summer, according to Football Insider, leaving Pau Torres as Villa's most established remaining centre-back option.
  • Villa's pursuit of Club Brugge's Joel Ordonez collapsed over a fractured metatarsal, and a look at West Ham's Jean-Clair Todibo was also dropped, leaving Harwood-Bellis as their clear priority.
Player motivation12 / 15
  • Southampton were expelled from the Championship play-off final on 19 May over the Spygate scandal after finishing fourth, missing out on promotion to the Premier League, while Aston Villa reached the Champions League and won the Europa League last season.
  • Harwood-Bellis has made it clear he is keen on the move, and was left out of Southampton's squad for their last three fixtures while the transfer was finalised.
  • He has one England cap to his name, making regular Premier League and Champions League football at Villa a clear route to further international recognition.
Selling club incentive7 / 20
  • Southampton have agreed to sell Harwood-Bellis for £30m, well above their earlier rejections of Benfica's interest and Aston Villa's opening £18m bid.
  • Southampton's own plan to bring in Feyenoord's Anel Ahmedhodzic as defensive cover fell through, with the Bosnian joining Burnley instead.
  • Harwood-Bellis scored 7 goals and added 3 assists in 48 appearances last season, form that helped push the final fee up from Villa's original £18m bid to £30m.
Market momentum17 / 20
  • Sky Sports' Lyall Thomas and The Athletic both reported on 30 August that Villa and Southampton had agreed a deal in principle.
  • Goal.com separately confirmed the £25m plus £5m add-ons structure, with a medical still to be completed.
  • The transfer window shuts on 1 September, leaving both clubs to finalise paperwork before then.
The verdict85 / 100
The score jumps to 85 from 77, now Very likely, after Villa and Southampton agreed a £30m package on 30 August. It happens once Harwood-Bellis completes his medical and the paperwork is filed before the window shuts on 1 September. It only fails to go through if a medical issue or a late change of heart derails a deal both clubs have already signed off.

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