Football betting odds explained: How are football odds calculated?

Ever wanted football betting odds explained to you? Have you ever thought “how are football odds calculated?” – if so, you are in the right place!

Understanding betting odds is the most crucial factor before placing a sports bet. The quality of the odds you are getting is an essential consideration, and if you don't know how to calculate them on your own, you should learn. Not understanding the odds is the main reason people lose funds in the long run.

In our article, we would like to help you learn more about football betting, how to understand odds and probabilities better, and how bookmakers work. We also have all the latest news and possible winning bets for you on Football Whispers.

How are football odds calculated?

Calculating the odds is a long and difficult process, but if you get the hang of it, you will be better equipped to place bets, understand what is at stake in the future, and calculate probabilities yourself. Here are the steps to success:

Analysing the data

Data analysis is the first and most crucial step in calculating the odds. Bookmakers usually hire specialists, like traders and odds compilers, to compile all the data possible and make sense of it. Here, we are talking about the smallest decimals and fractions of odds possible to determine what types of bets they can offer.

They use the best tools and software to ensure near-perfect results and objective statistical evaluation of each game and its possibilities. That is why these people answer daily by providing odds for hundreds of thousands of games in different sports.

The best people work on the most popular football events and teams, such as the Bundesliga, Premier League, FIFA World Cup, UEFA Champions League, and other special markets, such as Next Manager to Leave.

There is too much information for an average person to take in these days, so bookies employ these specialists to help you make a profit. To help you get a kick start, certain ones can offer promo codes in order to give you a “free” bet, which will let you experiment with various bookmakers. This can ensure that even if you cannot secure any winnings on your first try, you get a shot to miss.

Cash projections

After calculating each outcome's possibilities, the next step is to include the cash projections in the equation.

Bookmakers use advanced algorithms to calculate the amount of cash flow that would be placed on a specific market. They also have a database of past cash projections that helps them calculate the number better.

You might ask yourself, ‘Why are cash projections so important?' Cash projections help bookmakers keep an individual balance on each outcome and bet so they don't mix up anything and end up losing a lot of money.

This eliminates certain risks of losing money, and bookmakers aren't too fond of losing money, even to their customers.

Cash projections are part of the odds and help market the events as well. Thanks to cash projections, bets that would not usually see the light of day would attract a few more customers because the cash flow projections were added to the mix.

Whether the margin is low or high depends on the popularity of the sport or event.

The margin

After bookies have calculated the odds and how much money they would stand to make from the match, they need to post the odds.

Unfortunately, odds do not leave the printing press without an adjustment first. They go through what’s called a “margin,” or sometimes even called “juice.” This mystery factor allows bookmakers to make their money.

We all know that bookies don’t offer fair odds to their customers, and that is why more and more people prefer to wager on betting exchanges instead.

The bookmakers use the margin and provide overall odds slightly lower than they should be. If both outcomes have the same percent probability, then the odds should be even (1/1 or 2.0), meaning that if you wager £100, you will make £200 if you win.

Unfortunately, the actual odds bookies provide are lower than the conventional ones, which means that they might offer something like 1.5 or 1.9 instead of even odds, depending on their generosity.

The difference between the odds is the “margin” itself. The football betting sites have a margin of about three to five percent, while land-based shops have a higher percentage because they pay more significant taxes than online platforms.

Many bookmakers offer various offers to take advantage of the best odds on the market, like the Ladbrokes sign up offer or the Coral welcome offer.

Who to back after odds calculations

Now that we have delved into the way odds are calculated, we have come up with a number of selections that have undergone this rigorous calculation process and represent decent value for money. We will also offer a brief explanation as to why we feel they are worth pursuing.

Manchester City to win the Premier League (7/1)

Arsenal are clear favourites to win their first Premier League title in 22 years, but Manchester City cannot be counted out just yet. They have the experience of chasing down the Gunners before, and could hold a psychological edge having beaten them 2-0 in the Carabao Cup final.

Borussia Dortmund to win the Bundesliga (150/1)

The widest odds by far of our picks is for Borussia Dortmund to beat heavy favourites Bayern Munich to the Bundesliga title. There is a sizeable gap between both teams, but the Bavarians are still fighting on all fronts, while Dortmund can solely concentrate on the league.

Real Madrid to win LaLiga (17/5)

Real Madrid are slacking behind Barcelona in the LaLiga title race, but Barca are not too far in front. They are favourites with bookmakers, but Los Blancos cannot be ruled out at this stage.

Lens to win Ligue 1 (15/1)

PSG are of course heavy favourites to win the Ligue 1 title, as they are virtually every season. However, Lens have been surprise title challengers, and are not letting go of the Parisians easily.

AC Milan to win Serie A (9/1)

Inter Milan are relatively far in front in the Serie A title race, and are favourites to lift another Scudetto. However, fierce rivals AC Milan are their nearest challengers, and having already beaten Inter this season, the Rossoneri will be extra motivated to pip them to silverware.

Bayern Munich to win the Champions League (7/2)

Bayern were formidable in the last 16, demolishing Atalanta 10-2 on aggregate. The free-scoring Germans are only second-favourites behind Arsenal to win the Champions League, but they could go all the way.

Read more about how to get the best betting odds here.

Betting odds explained: Frequently Asked Questions

How can punters benefit from the football odds?

There are a couple of advantages to punters. The first one is that bookies may be wrong. We are so sure that we are getting the best that they provide. But that's not necessary. Analysts can be wrong; they are people, too.

Bookies focus their best resources on more significant leagues and don't invest as much time in minor leagues and competitions.

The odds there might not be the best, and there could be mistakes. Another benefit is knowing where to place bets. When large sums of money are poured into one place, there is a vortex, and opportunities arise where you can place bets and get good wins.

Ultimately, your winnings will depend on how well you study your probabilities and understand exactly what you are getting into. Each bookmaker has specific terms and conditions, which you must also watch out for.

Have bookies made a big mistake with calculating the odds in the past?

Yes, they have. At the start of the 2016 season, all kinds of bookies placed different odds in the style of 5000/1 on Leicester to win, and in the end, they did. Leicester's team quite literally defied all odds, and very few bets could have implied a Foxes win over the entire season.

That year, bookmakers lost millions or square billions of dollars because they were wrong when calculating the odds correctly. You can be sure that when they check back on it now, they cannot believe what happened, and neither could anybody in the footballing world at the time. That team will forever be engraved in the history books.

Why do odds change?

The odds change because of physical events during the match, like a red flag, player change, injury, penalty, goal, or other events that might change the match's outcome. Another reason why the odds change is because of the initial cash projections whenever they have to be adjusted.

In closing, this is why you should always check, double-check and check again before any games of interest start, to make sure you are aware of exactly who is playing on all sides.