Harry Kane to Al-Hilal transfer chances: Could a blockbuster Bayern exit actually happen? Football Whispers Index score

Harry Kane has twice turned down approaches from Al-Hilal this summer, the latest reportedly worth £85m a year.

The Bayern Munich striker is instead moving towards a new contract with the German champions, running through to 2029.

Below, find our latest Football Whispers Index score, calculating how likely any blockbuster deal is to happen.

Kane to Al-Hilal move rated ‘Unlikely' to happen

Our unique algorithm, which calculates numerous factors including the reliability and reputation of the sources, the financial capabilities and needs of both clubs, and the player's own situation, rates this as an ‘Unlikely' transfer to go through this summer, scoring 35/100.

The clearest plus points remain Al-Hilal's genuine need for a fresh centre forward and the scale of the wages on offer, but those are swamped by two rejected approaches, a rapidly advancing Bayern contract, and a complete absence of credible reporting suggesting this deal is going anywhere.

Bayern chief executive Jan-Christian Dreesen said this month there is a strong desire on both sides for an extension, and named negotiators are already working on the paperwork.

Financial viability

Al-Hilal's reported £85m a year proposal is more than Kane could ever hope to make in Europe, and would immediately place him among the super-earners in world football.

That figure is roughly four times what he currently earns at Bayern, a gap few players in the game simply walk past without a second thought.

Al-Hilal's own wage bill shows they can back up a number that size, with Karim Benzema already on close to €122m a year.

None of that changes the fact that no transfer fee has ever been mentioned anywhere in this saga, only personal terms, a deal that has never actually reached the two clubs' negotiating table.

Buying club need

Benzema's decline is not really in question any more, seventy minutes and a single penalty across two matches tells its own story.

Kane, by contrast, was the outstanding number nine in world football last season by almost any measure.

The trouble for Al-Hilal is that wanting Kane and getting him are different problems, and they are already hedging with interest in Osimhen, Watkins and a forward at Chelsea.

Simon Francis flying to meet Kane's own family in England shows real intent, but that intent has already been rebuffed twice this summer.

Player motivation

Turning down close to four times your current salary is about as loud a signal as a player can send.

Kane has done exactly that twice now, according to reports of Al-Hilal's approaches this summer.

Dreesen's own description of a mutual desire to continue the relationship leaves little room for reading between the lines.

England's run to the World Cup semi-final this summer only reinforces that his ambitions still run through European football, not the Gulf.

Selling club incentive

Bayern do not usually assign both their sporting director and chief executive to a contract they are lukewarm about.

A 61-goal season is not the profile of a player any club is looking to move on from, and nobody at the Allianz Arena has been linked as a like-for-like replacement, because nobody there is looking for one.

The only thing that could possibly tempt Bayern into selling is an astronomical transfer fee, although even then the lack of time to find a top-tier replacement makes it unlikely.

Market momentum

This is the pillar where the story falls apart for Al-Hilal entirely.

Every well-sourced update this month, Sport Bild's report on the contract talks, Dreesen's own quotes, Ben Jacobs' reporting on Kane's decision, points the same direction.

Volume of coverage on a transfer saga is not the same thing as momentum towards it happening, and this saga has plenty of the former and none of the latter.

Even the original scoop about Al-Hilal's approach called a move to Saudi Arabia unlikely in the same breath as reporting it.

Kane to Al-Hilal, will it or won't it happen?

A score of 35 is about as close to ‘very unlikely' as this model gets without actually crossing the line.

Two rejected approaches, a specific salary figure turned down, and a Bayern contract already being drafted leave very little room for optimism if you are Al-Hilal.

The only way this realistically happens now is if the Bayern talks stall badly enough that Kane starts listening again, and there is no evidence of that anywhere in this month's reporting.