Harry Kane to Al-Hilal transfer chances: Could a blockbuster Bayern exit actually happen? Football Whispers Index score

Al-Hilal have all but completed a separate deal for Ollie Watkins instead of continuing to chase Harry Kane.

Kane, meanwhile, has twice turned down Al-Hilal approaches this summer and now says his own Bayern Munich extension talks are “looking pretty good”.

Below, find our updated Football Whispers Index score, recalculating how likely the Al-Hilal deal still is to happen.

Kane to Al-Hilal move rated ‘Very unlikely' to happen

Our unique algorithm, which calculates numerous factors including the reliability and reputation of the sources, the financial capabilities and needs of both clubs, and the player's own situation, rates this as a ‘Very unlikely' transfer to go through this summer, scoring 32/100.

The clearest plus point remains the scale of the wages Al-Hilal have shown they're willing to offer, but that's now outweighed by a striker line that no longer needs Kane, on top of two rejected approaches and a Bayern extension both parties describe as close.

Bayern chief executive Jan-Christian Dreesen said this month there is a strong desire on both sides for an extension, and named negotiators are already working on the paperwork.

Financial viability

Al-Hilal's reported £85m a year proposal would have made Kane comfortably the best-paid player in Saudi Pro League history.

That figure is roughly four times what he currently earns at Bayern, a gap few players in the game simply walk past without a second thought.

Al-Hilal's own wage bill shows they can back up a number that size, with Karim Benzema already on close to €122m a year.

None of that changes the fact that no transfer fee has ever been mentioned anywhere in this saga, only personal terms, a deal that has never actually reached the two clubs' negotiating table.

Buying club need

A month ago this pillar scored highly because Al-Hilal's forward options looked thin next to a declining Benzema, and that reasoning no longer holds.

Watkins arrives as a proven, prolific Premier League number nine in his own right, exactly the kind of upgrade Al-Hilal were shopping for.

Adding Kane on top of Watkins, Benzema, Summerville and Nunez would be squad-hoarding rather than filling a gap, and clubs rarely pay superstar wages to solve a problem they've already solved.

Simon Francis flying to meet Kane's own family in England still shows real intent existed, but Al-Hilal's business this summer suggests that intent has moved on.

Player motivation

Turning down close to four times your current salary is about as loud a signal as a player can send.

Kane has done exactly that twice now, according to reports of Al-Hilal's approaches this summer.

Dreesen's own description of a mutual desire to continue the relationship leaves little room for reading between the lines.

England's run to a first World Cup semi-final since 1990 only reinforces that his ambitions still run through European football, not the Gulf.

Selling club incentive

Bayern do not usually assign both their sporting director and chief executive to a contract they are lukewarm about.

A 61-goal season is not the profile of a player any club is looking to move on from.

Nobody at the Allianz Arena has been linked as a like-for-like replacement, because nobody there is looking for one.

Market momentum

This is the pillar where the story falls apart for Al-Hilal entirely.

Every well-sourced update this month, Kane's own quotes, Bayern's confirmations, Al-Hilal's actual transfer business, points the same direction.

Signing Watkins instead is itself a form of evidence, a club spending its money and its striker slot elsewhere is a louder signal than any quote could be.

Even the original scoop about Al-Hilal's approach called a move to Saudi Arabia unlikely in the same breath as reporting it.

Kane to Al-Hilal, will it or won't it happen?

A score of 32 puts this firmly in Very unlikely, and the Watkins deal is the reason it crossed the line rather than just drifting lower within Unlikely.

Two rejected approaches, a specific salary figure turned down, and a Bayern contract already being drafted leave very little room for optimism if you are Al-Hilal.

The only way this realistically happens now is if the Bayern talks stall badly enough that Kane starts listening again, and there is no evidence of that anywhere in this month's reporting.