Napoli vs Barcelona prediction, odds & betting tips – 21/02/2024

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21/02/24 - 20:00

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Barcelona

Napoli - Barcelona

UEFA Champions League - Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

4th Round

Napoli vs Barcelona prediction
Napoli could harness the energy from the home crowd – Photo by Icon Sport

Napoli take on Barcelona in a high-profile Champions League Last 16 first leg tussle in Naples on Wednesday evening. View our Champions League betting tips for the contest below.

Napoli vs Barcelona predictions: Can Napoli find another gear?

Napoli vs Barcelona predictions
Our pick

⚽Both Teams to Score prediction

Yes

⚽ Correct Score prediction

Napoli 1-2 Barcelona

⚽ Total Goals prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

Napoli are enduring a massive title-winner hangover this season and they could be vulnerable again on Tuesday following a run of just one win in five games. Barcelona meanwhile, have won three of their last four assignments and will be confident of success on Wednesday.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Little to choose between the teams

  • HOME: 31/20 (2.55) – 39.2%
  • DRAW: 12/5 (3.40) – 29.4%
  • AWAY: 8/5 (2.60) – 38.5%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

The bookmakers are finding it difficult to separate the teams ahead of Wednesday’s first leg, though Napoli have a slight edge in the markets with home advantage a factor. Interestingly, Barca have lost each of their last two away games in the Champions League.

Last five H2Hs: Napoli and Barcelona are familiar foes

UEFA Europa League 24/02/22

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Napoli

2
Barcelona

Barcelona

4

UEFA Europa League 17/02/22

Barcelona

Barcelona

1
it

Napoli

1

UEFA Champions League 08/08/20

Barcelona

Barcelona

3
it

Napoli

1

UEFA Champions League 25/02/20

it

Napoli

1
Barcelona

Barcelona

1

Elite Club Friendlies 10/08/19

it

Napoli

0
Barcelona

Barcelona

4

Napoli and Barcelona have met four times in the Champions League previously since 2020 and the Italians failed to win any of those encounters with the Catalonian giants.

Team news and form guide

Napoli: Could Osimhen return?

Victor Osimhen is back in training for Napoli and the Nigerian hotshot could feature in some capacity on Wednesday. Napoli were held at home by Genoa at the weekend in another disappointing result.

Predicted lineup: Meret – Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Ostigard, Mazzocchi – Anguissa, Lobotka, Zielinski – Politano, Kvaratskhelia, Osimhen

Italy Serie A 25/02/24

D

Cagliari

Cagliari

1

it

Napoli

1

UEFA Champions League 21/02/24

D

Barcelona

Barcelona

1

it

Napoli

1

Italy Serie A 17/02/24

D

Genoa

Genoa

1

it

Napoli

1

Italy Serie A 11/02/24

L

AC Milan

AC Milan

1

it

Napoli

0

Italy Serie A 04/02/24

W

Verona

Verona

1

it

Napoli

2

Barcelona: Youthful attack to feature?

Barcelona will be without the services of Ferran Torres, Joao Felix, Sergi Roberto, Alex Balde and Marcos Alonso for their trip to Italy this week.

Predicted lineup: Ter Stegen – Kounde, Araujo, Martinez, Cancelo – de Jong, Gundogan, Pedri – Yamal, Roque, Lewandowski

Spain Primera Liga 24/02/24

W

Getafe

Getafe

0

Barcelona

Barcelona

4

UEFA Champions League 21/02/24

D

it

Napoli

1

Barcelona

Barcelona

1

Spain Primera Liga 17/02/24

W

Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo

1

Barcelona

Barcelona

2

Others 15/02/24

D

Inter Miami CF

Inter Miami CF

0

Barcelona

Barcelona

0

Spain Primera Liga 11/02/24

D

Granada

Granada

3

Barcelona

Barcelona

3

Our free expert picks: Barca’s superior firepower to tell in 2-1 win

You can dig into our expert tips for Napoli’s clash with Barcelona below, while our free betting tips page contains buckets of other football predictions.

Napoli have been given the edge by the bookies and are Wednesday’s expected winners, though the visitors look like better value to us in the first team to score market at 20/21 (1.95). Barca could also be worth a look to win either half at 4/5 (1.80) – an outcome that has a 55.6% chance of landing.

Hot tip – Both Teams to Score

  • Eight of Barcelona’s last nine assignments in all competitions have featured goals from both teams.
  • Napoli have scored in 100% of their Champions League fixtures so far this term.

Other tips

Napoli 1-2 Barcelona

  • Napoli score one goal in two of their last four matches in the Champions League.
  • Barcelona rattled the net twice in three of their last four games in the competition.

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Over 2.5 goals were registered in eight of Barcelona’s last nine tussles in all competitions.
  • 90% of Barcelona’s last ten away tests have also featured at least three goals.
Napoli vs Barcelona prediction
Robert Lewandowski will be the focal point of Barca's attack again – Photo by Icon Sport

Player to watch – Robert Lewandowski

Evergreen Polish striker Robert Lewandowski was Barcelona’s match-winning hero again at the weekend when he notched twice against Celta Vigo. His game-defining strike came deep into injury time to earn Barca all three points and the 35-year-old should be central to his side’s chances of success again on Wednesday

Lewandowski aiming to add to Champions League tally

Robert Lewandowski has been doing his best work domestically this season and the ex-Bayern Munich star has scored only once in the Champions League so far this term. The Polish international is sharp enough in the final third to add to that haul, however.


Avatar of Simon Winter
Simon Winter

Simon Winter is a professional football tipster and sports journalist with over ten years in the industry. Best known for his time with Racing Post, Simon has also had work published by Freesupertips, Bloomberg Sports, bet365, Paddy Power, Colossus Bets, These Football Times and more. Simon covers the Bundesliga and Serie A for Football Whispers.