Southampton vs Middlesbrough prediction, odds and betting tips 29/03/2024

29/03/24 - 15:00

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Southampton - Middlesbrough

England Championship - St. Mary's Stadium

Two defeats in a row at the back end of February and heading into March saw Middlesbrough's chances of making the playoffs disappear, but a run of three wins and a draw has them back in the hunt. However, coming up against an automatic promotion hopeful in Southampton won't be an easy task on the road.

Southampton vs Middlesbrough prediction: Saints look vulnerable at home

Key stats

• Southampton have lost two of their last three home matches
• Middlesbrough have kept three consecutive clean sheets
• Boro won on the road the last time they played a team in the top four

Pre-game odds and win probability: Southampton expected to come out on top

Home: 11/20 (1.55) – 64.5%

Draw: 10/3 (4.33) – 23.1%

Away: 17/5 (4.4) – 22.7%

With the Saints being six places above Boro and also playing at home this Friday, it's no surprise they're overwhelming favourites. While Boro could cause an upset, it's best to leave the outright market given the odds, and instead, we believe you may find more value in our free betting tips.

The promotion race in the Championship is certainly hotting up with Leicester City losing their dominant advantage in recent weeks. So, we've taken a look at when teams could be promoted and the odds of them reaching the Premier League on our betting insights page, which may interest any Saints fans who have faith in their side to finish in the top two.

Last five H2Hs: Neither side has been able to get the edge

These two teams have not met much in the past few years with the Saints often finding themselves in the Premier League while Middlesbrough languished in the Championship. So, the H2H record is very even, although Boro did win this clash earlier in the season 2-1.

England Championship 23/09/23

Middlesbrough

2

Southampton

1

England Premier League 13/05/17

Middlesbrough

1

Southampton

2

England Premier League 11/12/16

Southampton

1

Middlesbrough

0

Southampton preview: This is a must-win clash

Southampton already find themselves nine points behind Leicester who occupy the final automatic promotion spot. While the Saints do have a game in hand, if they have aspirations to leapfrog the sides above them, they must win this match.

Predicted lineup: Bazunu (GK) – Manning, Bednarek, Stephens, Harwood-Bellis, Downes, Rothwell, S. Armstrong – A. Armstrong, Adams, Brooks

England FA Cup 08/02/25

L

Burnley

1

Southampton

0

England Premier League 01/02/25

W

Ipswich

1

Southampton

2

England Premier League 25/01/25

L

Newcastle

3

Southampton

1

England Premier League 19/01/25

L

Nottm Forest

3

Southampton

2

England Premier League 16/01/25

L

Man Utd

3

Southampton

1

Middlesbrough preview: Playoffs may be too far away

Middlesbrough will look back at some mid-season wobbles and wonder what could have been for them this campaign. Boro find themselves seven points off the playoffs and are running out of games, so it looks to be yet another year of Championship football.

Predicted lineup: Dieng (GK) – McNair, Clarke, Ayling – Engel, Barlaser, O'Brien, Howson, Jones – Latte Lath, Azaz

England Championship 03/02/25

L

Sunderland

3

Middlesbrough

2

England Championship 25/01/25

L

Preston

2

Middlesbrough

1

England Championship 21/01/25

W

West Brom

0

Middlesbrough

2

England Championship 18/01/25

L

Portsmouth

2

Middlesbrough

1

England FA Cup 11/01/25

L

Blackburn

1

Middlesbrough

0

Player to watch – Adam Armstrong

Having dropped down with the Saints into the Championship, Adam Armstrong has been leading his side from the front. The ex-Newcastle United man has even captained the Saints on numerous occasions showing his qualities are more than just on the ball.

Rich vein of form to continue?

After going three games without a goal or an assist for Southampton, Armstrong has now scored in back-to-back league games against Birmingham and Sunderland respectively. So, with a big home crowd behind him, the English attacker is the most likely to find the back of the net in this close encounter.