Is Martin Zubimendi joining Real Madrid? January transfer ‘possible’ for £77m-rated midfielder – Football Whispers Index score

Martin Zubimendi has gone from a first-choice starter in Arsenal's title-winning midfield to a fringe figure in the space of one transfer window.

Real Madrid have taken notice, and Jose Mourinho is said to see the Spain international as exactly the kind of experienced midfielder his squad is missing.

Here is how likely the Football Whispers Index thinks a move actually is.

Martin Zubimendi to Real Madrid rated ‘Possible'

The Football Whispers Index scores every transfer rumour across five weighted factors. Read how it works here.

The model weighs finances and squad fit heavily, and on paper this is an easy deal for Real Madrid to do.

What holds the score back is timing, since nothing here is closer to negotiations than contact between camps and a reported asking price.

The single most decisive fact is that Zubimendi has told people around Arsenal he wants to fight for his place before he thinks about leaving.

Financial viability

A €90m fee would represent barely eight percent of Real Madrid's annual income, which is why finance is comfortably the strongest part of the case.

Zubimendi's contract running to 2030 also works in Arsenal's favour at the negotiating table, since there is no ticking clock forcing them to sell cheap.

Real Madrid's clean bill of health under UEFA's Squad Cost Ratio rules means Financial Fair Play is not the obstacle it has been for some of the other clubs chasing the same profile of player this year.

Buying club need

Missing out on Rodri stung, but Real Madrid did not go into the season with a bare hole in midfield the way that defeat might suggest.

Zubimendi's underlying defensive numbers put him well ahead of Tchouameni, which is the strongest single argument for signing him rather than simply rotating existing options.

The counterargument is that Tchouameni, Camavinga and Valverde already give Mourinho three ways to cover the same role, so Zubimendi reads as an upgrade rather than a necessity.

Player motivation

This is the pillar dragging the overall score down, and it is not close.

A player who turned down Liverpool in 2024 to keep fighting for his place has already shown he is in no rush to leave when the going gets tough.

Real Madrid's midfield is arguably even more competitive than Arsenal's right now, so a move would not obviously hand Zubimendi more certain football, only different circumstances.

Selling club incentive

Arsenal are in the rare position of being able to sell from a position of strength rather than necessity.

A €90m return on a player signed for around £60m twelve months ago would represent one of the club's most profitable pieces of transfer business in years, which is exactly why the price has been set that high.

None of that changes the fact that Arteta has personally told Zubimendi he has a future at the club, and managers do not usually make that promise to players they plan to sell.

Market momentum

Two separate outlets in two different countries reporting the same asking price is a meaningful signal, since it suggests genuine information rather than one journalist's guesswork.

What is missing is any sign of Real Madrid actually testing that price with an offer, and that gap between interest and action is exactly why this pillar cannot score any higher.

The Rice link complicates the picture further, since it shows Real Madrid canvassing more than one name for the long term rather than fixating on Zubimendi alone.

Martin Zubimendi to Real Madrid: Will or won't it happen?

The number says Possible rather than Likely because every ingredient for a deal exists except the deal itself.

A concrete bid in January, or a fresh dip in Zubimendi's game time, would be the surest signs this is about to move.

Until then, this reads as a rumour with real substance behind it rather than a transfer waiting to be confirmed.