Chaves vs Porto prediction, odds & betting tips – 04/05/2024

04/05/24 - 20:30

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Chaves - FC Porto

Portugal Primeira Liga - Estadio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

We're bringing you our Portuguese league predictions for Porto's trip to Chaves this weekend.

Porto might be out of the title race but that didn't stop them from contributing to the top two battle as they drew 2-2 with Sporting last time out. The Portuguese giants can't afford to drop any points on Saturday against Chaves as Braga are breathing down their necks and could pip Porto to third place in the table this season.

Chaves vs Porto predictions: Porto's class to guide them to victory

Key Stats

• Four of the last seven encounters between Chaves and Porto in league and cup have ended with both teams scoring, while four of the hosts' and five of the visitors' last six outings in all competitions have also produced goals at both ends of the pitch.
• Saturday's guests have won each of their last six games against Chaves in all competitions and have scored at least two goals in five of those victories, but the hosts have only failed to score in one of their last six outings so a 2-1 scoreline in favour of Porto makes the most sense to us.
• Four of Chaves' and five of Porto's last six outings in league and cup have witnessed at least three goals, while four of the pair's last six head-to-heads have also produced over 2.5 goals.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Porto the big favourite

• HOME: 10/1 (11.00) – 9.1%
• DRAW: 19/4 (5.75) – 17.4%
• AWAY: 2/7 (1.29) – 77.8%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Porto are the expected winners of this game with a probability of 77.8%, and we agree with the bookmakers on this one.

Chaves lost 3-1 at Casa Pia last time out, while Porto were held to a 2-2 draw at home to Sporting.

For more football betting tips on the game, check out the Anytime Goalscorer market. Porto's Francisco Evanilson is the bookmaker's choice to score in this game at 11/10 (2.10) which has a probability of 47.6%, while his teammate Antonio Martinez is priced at 6/5 (2.20) to score with a probability of 45.5%.

Last five H2Hs: Porto dominate

World Club Friendlies 10/07/24

FC Porto

4

Chaves

0

Portugal Primeira Liga 29/12/23

FC Porto

1

Chaves

0

Portugal Primeira Liga 04/03/23

Chaves

1

FC Porto

3

Portugal League Cup 08/12/22

Chaves

0

FC Porto

2

Portugal Primeira Liga 10/09/22

FC Porto

3

Chaves

0

Porto have won 22, drawn two and lost one of their last 25 meetings with Chaves, winning 1-0 in the pair's reverse league fixture back in December.

Team news and form guide

Chaves: Lost four of last six

Saturday's hosts head into the Porto game with a clean bill of health and no suspended players so could field the same starting lineup that lost to Casa Pia.

Predicted lineup: Souza (GK), Fernandes, Sylla, Nogueira, Correia, Cruz, Ribeiro, Guzzo, Nwakali, Essugo & Hernández

Portugal Segunda Liga 12/04/25

W

Portimonense

0

Chaves

2

Portugal Segunda Liga 05/04/25

L

Vizela

2

Chaves

1

Portugal Segunda Liga 30/03/25

L

Pacos Ferreira

2

Chaves

0

Portugal Segunda Liga 15/03/25

W

UD Oliveirense

0

Chaves

4

Portugal Segunda Liga 07/03/25

W

Feirense

0

Chaves

1

Porto: Unbeaten in last four

João Mário, Toni Martínez, André Franco, Ivan Jaime, Jorge Sánchez, Zaidu Sanusi and Ivan Marcano are expected to miss the trip to Chaves due to injury.

Predicted lineup: Costa (GK), Wendell, Zé Pedro, Otávio, Fernandes, González, Varela, Galeno, Aquino, Evanilson & Conceição

Portugal Primeira Liga 12/04/25

W

Casa Pia

0

FC Porto

1

Portugal Primeira Liga 06/04/25

L

Benfica

4

FC Porto

1

Portugal Primeira Liga 30/03/25

W

Estoril

1

FC Porto

2

Portugal Primeira Liga 15/03/25

W

AVS

0

FC Porto

2

Portugal Primeira Liga 08/03/25

L

Braga

1

FC Porto

0

Player to watch – Evanilson

Evanilson top scores for Porto this season with 12 league goals but the Portuguese giants are going to need to invest in a new striker this summer if they want to compete with Benfica and Sporting.

The 24-year-old Brazilian netted 14 league goals in the 2021/22 season but last time out he only scored seven times and in this campaign, he has managed 12 which is a bad return but a club like Porto need a 20+ goals-a-season striker if they want to win the league and challenge for European titles.

Porto have lacked a top-tier goalscorer this season

Evanilson will be looking to impress in the final few games of the season and after scoring against Sporting last time out, the Brazilian should be full of confidence. Evanilson still has plenty to prove at Porto but a strong finish to the campaign could maintain his position as the club's number one choice up front.