Southampton vs West Brom prediction, odds & betting tips – 17/05/2024

17/05/24 - 20:00

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Southampton - West Brom

England Championship - St. Mary's Stadium

2nd Round

Southampton and West Brom will go head to head on Friday night for a place in the playoff final. The tie is finely in the balance after the first leg on Sunday afternoon ended goalless which makes the match at the St Mary's Stadium on Friday a winner-takes-all scenario. Ahead of what will be another nervy night of playoff action, check out our Southampton vs West Brom prediction below.

Southampton vs West Brom prediction: Saints to book their place at Wembley

Key stats

• Southampton have won three of their last four home Championship matches.
• West Brom have failed to win any of their last four Championship matches (two losses, two draws).
• Southampton have won their last three home matches against West Brom.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Can the Baggies overcome the odds?

• HOME: 4/5 (1.80) – 55.6%
• DRAW: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%
• AWAY: 10/3 (4.33) – 23.1%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

The Southampton vs West Brom odds indicate that Southampton supporters can start booking their train tickets to Wembley for the playoff final. The Saints have been given a 55.6% chance of winning the match in 90 minutes while West Brom have only been given a 23.1%.

Neither team came into the playoffs in brilliant form which is why the opening leg result of 0-0 wasn't a huge shock to anyone. Both teams lost three of their final four league matches before the playoffs but with a home win now needed to give them a trip to Wembley, Southampton will fancy their chances.

One key factor that makes us favour Southampton for this tie is West Brom's away form. In terms of points picked up on the road in the Championship this season, the Baggies are in the bottom half of the table. They have only won one of their last seven away matches which makes it hard to imagine them leaving St Mary's with the win they need to reach the playoff final.

Additional free betting tips for Southampton vs West Brom:

• BTTS, No – 17/20 (1.85)
• Adam Armstrong to score anytime – 27/20 (2.35)

Last five H2Hs: Advantage Southampton

Southampton have the advantage over West Brom when it comes to the recent H2H. The Saints have won three of their last five meetings with the Baggies, including a 2-1 win at St Mary's earlier this season. West Brom's last away win at Southampton came back in 2016.

England Championship 12/05/24

West Brom

0

Southampton

0

England Championship 16/02/24

West Brom

0

Southampton

2

England Championship 11/11/23

Southampton

2

West Brom

1

England Premier League 12/04/21

West Brom

3

Southampton

0

England Premier League 04/10/20

Southampton

2

West Brom

0

Southampton preview: Searching for an immediate PL return

Southampton are looking to join Leicester City in an immediate return to the Premier League and a win here takes them one step closer. Russell Martin could make a few changes from the first leg with Che Adams fighting to be fit. Ryan Fraser and David Brooks could also earn a start with Southampton needing goals.

Predicted lineup: McCarthy (GK), Walker-Peters, Harwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Manning, Smallbone, Downes, Aribo, Brooks, Adams, Armstrong

England Premier League 10/05/25

D

Man City

0

Southampton

0

England Premier League 03/05/25

L

Leicester

2

Southampton

0

England Premier League 26/04/25

L

Fulham

2

Southampton

1

England Premier League 19/04/25

D

West Ham

1

Southampton

1

England Premier League 12/04/25

L

Aston Villa

3

Southampton

0

West Brom preview: What does Corberan have up his sleeve?

West Brom boss, Carlos Corberan, may elect to keep things fairly similar after a solid first leg performance, however, he does have one wildcard option on the bench. Matt Phillips has been a scorer of big goals for West Brom over the years and could come in for Tom Fellows on the right flank.

Predicted lineup: Palmer (GK), Furlong, Bartley, Kipre, Townsend, Mowatt, Yokuslu, Phillips, Diangana, Johnston, Thomas-Asante

England Championship 03/05/25

W

Luton

3

West Brom

5

England Championship 26/04/25

D

Cardiff

0

West Brom

0

England Championship 21/04/25

L

Derby

3

West Brom

1

England Championship 18/04/25

L

Coventry

2

West Brom

0

England Championship 12/04/25

W

Watford

1

West Brom

2

Player to watch: Che Adams

Che Adams is doing “everything” to be fit for the match against West Brom and the expectation is that the forward will make it. Regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench, Adams' performance could be the difference in this tie especially as Southampton missed his tenacity in the first leg.

A scorer of big goals

Although Adam Armstrong is the main goalscorer in this Saints team, Adams scored some big goals for the Saints as the season came to a close. He scored six goals in five appearances in April and it wouldn't be a shock to see him pop up with another big one tonight.