Tunisia vs Netherlands: Remarkable Denzel Dumfries stat makes 6/5 selection stand out

On Thursday night, Tunisia will take on the Netherlands in Kansas City in a match that is far more important to the Dutch than it is to the Tunisians.

The Netherlands need a win to qualify as group winners from Group F, whereas for Tunisia, the match is about nothing more than professional pride, having already been eliminated from the competition.

The bookies are firmly in the Dutch camp, giving them a 1/14 chance of winning the match on Thursday, while Tunisia are rank outsiders at 28/1.

While the result of the match is perhaps a foregone conclusion, there is still one bet worth looking at for this one, and it revolves around Denzel Dumfries.

Denzel Dumfries to score or assist vs Tunisia?

Anyone who has watched the Netherlands or Inter Milan at any point over the last five years will know all about Denzel Dumfries and what he offers going forward as a right-wing back.

In the Netherlands' 5-1 demolition job of Sweden, Dumfries recorded two assists and was a constant threat down the right-hand side throughout the 90 minutes.

That performance was far from a fluke in an orange shirt, either. The 30-year-old has registered seven goals and assists across his last nine competitive outings for the national team.

Therefore, his odds of 6/5 to register another goal or assist against Tunisia offer remarkable value. These odds suggest an implied probability of 45.5%, while Dumfries has contributed a goal or assist in 77.7% of his last nine competitive appearances for the Netherlands.

Quality of opposition should also be considered

Not only is Dumfries operating at an elite level at right back for the Netherlands, but Tunisia are the weakest team Ronald Koeman's side have faced so far at the World Cup, hence their odds of 28/1 to win the match.

The African side will have little motivation to dig in on Thursday night, whereas the Netherlands will be actively pushing for the win, setting us up for a scenario where the majority of the match is likely to be played in the Tunisian half. Naturally, this will mean Dumfries operating more as a winger than a full-back.

What's more, Tunisia had the worst defensive record at the World Cup after two matches, conceding nine goals across their matches with Sweden and Japan.