France vs Spain: Why this Desire Doue play looks huge value in mouthwatering World Cup semi-final

Only four teams remain in the race to become world champions, and France and Spain meet in a mouthwatering heavyweight semi-final with a place in Sunday's final on the line.

Between them, France, Spain and Argentina have lifted three of the last four World Cups, while England are chasing a first triumph since 1966. It is only the third time in history that all four World Cup semi-finalists have previously won the competition.

The Opta supercomputer makes France slight favourites to lift the 2026 World Cup, reaching the final in 57.7% of its latest 25,000 simulations and lifting the trophy in 34.0% of them. With Spain conceding just one goal all tournament, Les Bleus may need a moment of individual brilliance to edge through, and Desire Doue looks well placed to provide it.

Desire Doue can trouble Spain from range

Doue is expected to start on France's left flank, where he is likely to renew his battle with Spain right-back Pedro Porro.

That matchup offered encouragement in Spain's quarter-final win over Belgium. Jeremy Doku repeatedly caused Porro problems with his pace and direct running, completing five dribbles and creating a chance despite not registering a shot. Doue possesses a similar willingness to attack defenders one-on-one, but is even more inclined to test the goalkeeper himself.

The Paris Saint-Germain attacker has already attempted shots from outside the box against both Norway and Morocco at this World Cup, while 24 of his 55 Ligue 1 efforts last season came from long range.

That makes Doue to record a shot on target from outside the box an appealing option, particularly in a game where clear-cut opportunities could be limited.

He is also worth backing to enjoy another busy evening in front of goal. Doue averages 2.35 shots on target per 90 minutes across his last 20 France appearances, recording three against Norway and two in the quarter-final against Morocco. Even in 15 minutes from the bench against Sweden, he still managed to test the goalkeeper at least once.

France have averaged a tournament-high 7.8 shots on target per game, narrowly ahead of Spain, and possess enough attacking quality to create opportunities against the competition's meanest defence.

There's also encouraging recent history. In France and Spain's last competitive meeting, Spain survived 24 French shots in a thrilling 5-4 victory. Doue registered three attempts, two of which were on target, during his 63 minutes on the pitch – once again coming up directly against Porro.

France vs Spain best bets

Desire Doue shot on target from outside the box – 9/4 (3.25) with Bet365, 11/5 (3.20) with Sky Bet

Doue is happy to shoot from distance and has shown throughout the tournament that he doesn't need many invitations to test the goalkeeper.

Desire Doue over 1.5 shots on target – 19/5 (4.80) with Ladbrokes and Coral, 15/4 (4.75) with SpreadEx and Sporting Index

His recent international numbers are outstanding, and France's ability to generate shots should ensure Doue remains heavily involved.

Desire Doue shot on target from outside the box and over 1.5 shots on target – 6/1 (7.00) with Bet365

A combination that reflects both Doue's willingness to shoot from range and his excellent shots-on-target numbers for club and country.

Desire Doue to score from outside the box – 14/1 (15.00) with William Hill and QuinnBet, 12/1 (13.00) with Betway

If the semi-final is settled by a single moment of quality, few players are better equipped to produce it than the PSG winger.