There’ll be just ten rounds of fixtures left in La Liga after this weekend and there’s already a strong idea of what direction the key battles are heading in. Real Madrid are in control of the title race while Almeria look all but doomed at the bottom. The winless Andalusians feature in our La Liga handicap betting tips for matchday 28.
La Liga handicap betting tips – Our picks
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano – Rayo Vallecano (+1)
Sunday’s action starts with a bottom half clash between Alaves and Rayo Vallecano. The hosts are the favourites to win the game and they’ve a danger man in the shape of striker Samuel Omorodion who features in our La Liga goalscorer predictions for this weekend.
However, Alaves aren’t in great form overall and there’s reason to think Rayo are capable of getting a result. The visitors are under new management with Iñigo Perez recently taking over from Francisco. While his return is only two points from three games so far, it is worth noting that his first two games were against Real Madrid and Girona so it’s way too early to judge a man who used to be Andoni Iraola’s assistant in Vallecas.
Rayo actually have a better away record than they do home record this season. They average 1.14 points per game on their travels compared to just 0.96 points per game overall. The Madrid outfit have avoided defeat in five of their six away games against current bottom half opposition this term.
That bodes well for their chances here against an Alaves side that has gone five without a win in La Liga and while they may not necessarily win the match, Rayo look good with a +1 Handicap.
Real Betis vs Villarreal – Villarreal (+1)
This games features two sides who are normally competing in a similar part of La Liga with the two jostling for European places in recent years. That won’t be the case this term with Villarreal enduring a miserable first half of the season but there are clear signs now that the Yellow Submarine are starting to find their feet under Marcelino.
Villarreal come into this game having gone seven without defeat in La Liga, by far their best run of the campaign. They’ve also shown they can play effectively in different ways.
They’ve produced some clinical counter attacking football to claim impressive away wins at Barcelona and Real Sociedad since the turn of the year. Last weekend required a different approach though as creative midfielder Dani Parejo was recalled to the eleven and he assisted three goals in the 5-1 rout of Granada.
While Villarreal were well beaten in Marseille in the Europa League on Thursday, they do have enough depth to their squad to rotate and come back much stronger here with January signings like Bertrand Traore likely to feature while Parejo and Alexander Sorloth could return to the eleven after strong showings against Granada.
Betis are solid at home but their form at the Benito Villamarin has dipped a bit since the turn of the year with three of their last four league visitors leaving with a result which will offer plenty of encouragement to Villarreal.
Almeria vs Sevilla – Sevilla (-1)
The Monday night game comes from the Power Horse Stadium where Almeria are aiming to win a match at the 28th time of asking this season. They are currently on course for the first ever winless top flight campaign in Spain, as well as the lowest ever points tally.
While they’ve actually played a lot better than their record suggests in patches this season and shouldn’t even be in the bottom three if you believe in xG differentials, all too often they’ve failed to turn up for the games that mattered most. Another example of that was their trip to Celta Vigo last time out when they were distinctly second best in a 1-0 defeat where they failed to even muster a shot on target.
The absence of forwards Luis Suarez and Leo Baptistao is adding to their problems in the final third and it’s hard to see them causing too many problems for a Sevilla side that has been much more assured defensively in recent weeks.
The Europa League holders have won three of their last five in the league to ease their own relegation concerns. With in-form strike duo Youssef En-Nesyri and Isaac Romero capable of pouncing on the often inevitable Almeria defensive errors, we’re backing Sevilla in our La Liga handicap betting tips for matchday 28.
