Ecuador vs Italy prediction, odds & betting tips – 24/03/2024

24/03/24 - 20:00

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Ecuador - Italy

International Match

Ecuador and Italy clash this weekend in New Jersey and we're bringing you our top predictions for the game.

Mateo Retegui continued his excellent start to international football with a brace for Italy against Venezuela in midweek but Ecuador's Enner Valencia will be hoping to outdo his young counterpart in front of goal on Sunday, and you can find all our goalscoring tips for this game, and more, in our betting insights area.

Ecuador vs Italy predictions: Close game on the cards

Key Stats

• Both teams scored when these two nations last clashed back in 2005 with the game ending in a 1-1 draw, while four of Italy's last six outings in all competitions have ended with both teams finding the back of the net.
• Ecuador have drawn two of their last four international matches and are unbeaten in their last six outings, while Italy have only lost one of their last six fixtures and have only kept two clean sheets during that period.
• Enner Valencia has scored five goals in his last nine international matches for Ecuador and the La Tri captain has a total of 40 goals in 83 caps for his country.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Italy the favourites

• HOME: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%
• DRAW: 27/11 (3.45) – 28.9%
• AWAY: 6/5 (2.20) – 45.5%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Italy are the expected winners of this game with a probability of 45.5%, but we are expecting a very close game between these two countries.

Ecuador continued their unbeaten run in all competitions in midweek when they ran out 2-0 winners against Guatemala, while Italy beat Venezuela 2-1 a day earlier and have picked up four wins, one draw and one defeat from their last six outings.

For more football betting tips on the game, check out the Under/Over 2.5 Goals market. You can back under 2.5 goals to be scored in this game at 5/7 (1.71) which has a probability of 58.3%, while a bet on over 2.5 goals has odds of 5/4 (2.25) with a probability of 44.4%.

Last five H2Hs: Italy edge it

These two countries have only met twice before with Italy winning the initial encounter 2-0 at the 2002 World Cup which was followed up by a 1-1 draw in a 2005 friendly.

Team news and form guide

Ecuador: Hard to beat of late

Ecuador will be expected to change the majority of their starting eleven for the Italy game as the likes of Enner Valencia, Moisés Caicedo, Piero Hincapié and Pervis Estupiñán didn't play a single minute of the 2-0 win over Guatemala. Valencia wasn't in the squad for that game but is hopeful of starting against Italy on Sunday.

Predicted lineup: Domínguez (GK), Torres, Hincapié, Estupiñán, Pacho, Ortiz, Caicedo, Plata, Franco, Valencia & Páez

South America - World Cup Qualifying 26/03/25

D

Chile

0

Ecuador

0

South America - World Cup Qualifying 21/03/25

W

Venezuela

1

Ecuador

2

South America - World Cup Qualifying 19/11/24

W

Colombia

0

Ecuador

1

South America - World Cup Qualifying 15/11/24

W

Bolivia

0

Ecuador

4

South America - World Cup Qualifying 15/10/24

D

Uruguay

0

Ecuador

0

Italy: Won four of their last six

Italy ran out 2-1 winners against Venezuela in midweek but we are expecting Luciano Spalletti to mix things up against Ecuador with the likes of Alessandro Bastoni, Jorginho and Nicolò Barella to be in the starting lineup this weekend.

Predicted lineup: Donnarumma (GK), Dimarco, Mancini, Bastoni, Darmian, Pellegrini, Barella, Jorginho, Frattesi, Chiesa & Retegui 

UEFA Nations League 23/03/25

D

Germany

3

Italy

3

UEFA Nations League 20/03/25

L

Germany

2

Italy

1

UEFA Nations League A 17/11/24

L

France

3

Italy

1

UEFA Nations League A 14/11/24

W

Belgium

0

Italy

1

UEFA Nations League A 14/10/24

W

Israel

1

Italy

4

Player to watch – Enner Valencia

In 2022, Enner Valencia became only the fourth player to score six World Cup goals in a row, joining an elite list that includes Eusebio and Paolo Rossi.

The 34-year-old striker, who now plies his trade in Brazil with Internacional, has scored 40 times in 83 caps for Ecuador making him his country's highest goalscorer ahead of Agustin Delgado who scored 31 times in 71 caps between 1994-2006.

Ecuador's veteran striker leads by example

We're backing Valencia to step up for his country once again this weekend even though he missed the match against Guatemala. He might now play the entire 90 minutes but if he does feature then we expect him to cause the Italian defence a few headaches.

The latest Tweets from each camp

Ecuador

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? @ElCanalDFutbol

• #LaTriItalia • #FechaFIFA • pic.twitter.com/lEnGjnNCTB

— La Tri ?? (@LaTri) March 24, 2024

Italy

The words of @FrelloJorginho 24hrs before the match against Ecuador ?️#ECUITA #VivoAzzurro #Azzuri pic.twitter.com/Ri2SznQygS

— Italy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@Azzurri_En) March 23, 2024