Bundesliga top scorer betting tips: Kane odds-on for 40+ goals

Harry Kane has taken to the Bundesliga like a duck to water. The Englishman has 18 goals in just 12 Bundesliga games, making him the comfortable market leader in current Bundesliga top scorer betting tips.

That said, Kane is not without his rivals for top spot on the scoring charts. Serhou Guirassy is hot on Kane’s heels with 16 goals, having played fewer games. With an average of 1.83 goals per game being substantially higher than Kane’s 1.53, this still looks like it will be a fight to the finish for the three-time PL golden boot recipient.

Kane Bayern shot
(© Ulrik Pedersen/Cal Sport Media/Sipa USA) – Photo by Icon sport

Bundesliga top scorer betting tips: outright odds

Kane to score 39 or more goals – 5/6 

Any fears of Harry Kane being unable to adapt to life away from boyhood club Tottenham Hotspur have very quickly evaporated. Kane has struck up a friendship with Bayern hero Thomas Muller off the pitch, and has won the hearts of the Allianz Arena faithful with his astonishing performances.

If Kane were to continue scoring at his current rate, he would hit an eye-watering 52 goals in the Bundesliga alone this season, which would utterly obliterate the record for most goals in a single campaign of 41 set by Robert Lewandowski in 2020/21.

Kane’s underlying numbers are equally good. He is averaging 1.04 expected goals per 90 minutes, almost double the 0.57 he put up with struggling Spurs last season. This indicates that Kane’s rate of over a goal per game is quite sustainable and he can maintain his pace.

These are short odds, but the number don’t lie, and barring injury, Harry Kane will comfortably hit 40 Bundesliga goals this season.

Serhou Guirassy
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Serhou Guirassy to finish as Bundesliga top scorer – 6/1

For all the promise surrounding his chances of winning the golden boot, it's worth remembering that Guirassy has only really burst onto the scene this season. The 27-year-old Guinean striker only made his international debut in 2022, and has taken a more scenic route to the summit of the scoring charts, via Amiens, Rennes and Koln among others.

But after a solid first campaign at Stuttgart, where he scored 11 goals in 20 appearances, he has exploded this season. The skeptic’s question with such a start is always how small the sample size is. After all, Paco Alcacer had a similar spell in 2018/19, where he scored 18 goals in just 11 starts, but could not maintain that momentum.

Guirassy’s underlying stats show someone who is the real deal, however. The Stuttgart front man has an expected goals per 90 value of 1.17, a figure surprisingly higher than Kane’s once again. If Kane is to pick up an injury, which has happened in the past, Guirassy would suddenly become almost certain to top the scoring charts.

The price could also lengthen drastically, depending on how far Guinea get in an upcoming AFCON tournament that sees them take on giants Senegal and Cameroon.

Victor Boniface
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Victor Boniface to finish as Bundesliga top scorer – 100/1

In the realm of real longshot odds resides Victor Boniface. The Nigerian striker has made a big splash at Bayer Leverkusen already, and is being watched by Europe’s elite.

Boniface is some way off Guirassy and Kane’s goals per 90 numbers. With eight so far, he is at 0.64 per 90. Things get a little more intriguing when looking at his 0.88 expected goals per 90. Boniface, despite his top performances, is actually underperforming his xG. 

If Boniface discovers a hot streak in front of goal, and something happens to Kane or Guirassy, Boniface will likely lead the race.

What happens if the Bundesliga top scorer is tied?

If two players in the Bundesliga share the top spot in the scoring charts, the “Kicker-Torjägerkanone” trophy is shared, as it was last season between Christopher Nkunku and Niclas Fullkrug. Your wager will likely follow ‘dead heat rules'. For more on shared golden boot awards, read our guide.

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William Evans

William Evans is a football and politics fanatic. A first-class graduate of UEA's Broadcast and Digital Journalism MA course, he also achieved a first class degree in politics and media studies during his time at UEA.