Ballon d’Or odds comparison, prediction and our top three bookmakers

With the award ceremony drawing ever closer, here are the latest 2024 Ballon d'Or odds and predictions we've made.

Current Ballon d'Or odds, market comparison and predictions

Odds for the winner are the most popular type of Ballon d'Or bets. The thrill of predicting the winner has always been one of the most popular types of markets in sports betting, and that won't change in the future. The odds for these types of outright markets are better than others, especially if you place the wager months in advance, so be sure to bet as early as possible on the 2025 outcome.

As for the current odds themselves, we've already taken a more detailed look at the frontrunners to lift the 2024 Ballon d'Or award. To little surprise, La Liga and Champions League winner Vinicius Jr is the clear favourite. In our bookmaker comparison below, we can see how likely he is considered to win the Ballon d’Or, and just how far ahead of the chasing pack he currently is.

Prediction to win the Ballon d’Or: Vinicius Jr

There are a few voices in the media that are quick to dismiss Real Madrid star Vinicius Junior in the Ballon d’Or race but we simply don’t understand that. For us, he’s the standout pick and the bookies agree. His stunning Champions League hat-trick in mid-week to rescue Los Blancos from defeat to Dortmund is a timely reminder of his class, albeit falling outside of the Ballon d’Or scope for this year.

Cast your mind back to the months that do count though and Vini was still tearing it up. He chipped in with 34 goal contributions across all competitions; 24 of those were goals with 10 assists for his teammates. Bear in mind the speedster was out injured for a period and that’s a tidy stat pack.

Throw into the mix that some of those goals came in high-profile matches – notably the semi-final and final of the Champions League – and you can see why he ranks so highly in the bookmakers minds.

Predicted runners up: Rodri (2nd) & Dani Carvajal (3rd)

Some bookmakers let punters request other bets related to the Ballon d’Or, like “To Finish in Top Three for Ballon d'Or”, or something similar. For anyone going down this route, Rodri is the go-to choice, having been instrumental in Man City winning a record-breaking fourth consecutive Premier League title.

In addition, he scooped the Player of the Tournament honour at Euro 2024, where his Spain side were head and shoulders the best team throughout. If he was an attacker, he'd be nailed on to win the Ballon d'Or. However, his under-the-radar work does mean he will always struggle to match more attack-minded players like Vinicius Jr.

An injury sustained against Arsenal on 22nd September appears to have affected his Ballon d’Or odds for the worse, though he should easily finish an honourable second and claim the Ballon d’Argent (Silver Ball).

Our choice to finish third is far more open to contention, though it has ample justification if looking only at the time that has elapsed since the Champions League final.

At present, Jude Bellingham is the third-favourite in the long list to win the Ballon d’Or, and would therefore be the logical pick to take the bronze. And though he did claim the same club honours as Vinicius Jr in 2023/24, his Euro 2024 performances – injury-time equaliser against Slovakia excepted – were largely disappointing.

By contrast, Bellingham’s Real Madrid teammate Carvajal was a key part of Spain’s success in the summer, playing all but one game on La Roja’s route to Euro 2024 glory. It’s a tough call, but fresher memories of a player’s success can swing a close battle for the podium towards a less-fancied pick.

Top 3 bookmakers for Ballon d'Or odds

Established bookmakers offer odds and markets on the Ballon d'Or each year, and based purely on prices available going into the final month before the awards ceremony, these are our picks.

888 Sport

888 Sport is one of the more popular bookmakers in the UK, and they offer a wide array of services on their platform, including an online casino, live poker and slots. They provide attractive welcome offers for each of the available platforms. They regularly offer bonuses to customers, especially around the prevalent competitions, such as the Premier League.

Betfred

Betfred is a well-known name in sports and sports betting. They provide one of the best online platforms and have a unique website design. Compared to other bookmakers, they might not have the most extensive library of betting markets and sports. Still, they offer quality bonuses for new and existing customers, including their attractive welcome offer. You can also use some of their betting features to have a better chance at winning.

Ladbrokes

Ladbrokes are an excellent choice because they have one of the best online and mobile platforms for betting in the UK. They also have numerous betting shops where you can go to place football bets. Ladbrokes’ platform offers a wide array of sports and markets to choose from, including outright markets for many competitions. You can also use one of the betting features available to all customers or benefit from bonuses, promotions, and games for existing customers.

2024 Ballon d'Or FAQ

Who won the Ballon d'Or last year?

In 2023, Lionel Messi won the Ballon d'Or award. Second place went to Erling Haaland, while Kylian Mbappe got third place.

Who has won the Ballon d'Or most times?

Following his latest success, Messi has won the Ballon d'Or eight times in his career. That is the current record, followed closely by long-time rival Ronaldo with five wins.

Could Messi win the Ballon d’Or in 2024?

Messi’s World Cup success of 2022 was the obvious main cog in his selection as the world’s greatest player in 2023.

And though he comes into the next awards ceremony with another international-level honour under his belt, with Argentina lifting their 16th Copa America title in July 2024, he’s not shown enough at club level to be seriously considered for the award this time around.

When is the Ballon d'Or usually presented?

The Ballon d'Or award is due to be presented on 28th October at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris.

Is the Ballon d'Or going to be presented next year?

FIFA has no plans to cancel the Ballon d'Or award next year, and we think that as long as there aren't any significant competition cancellations like in 2020, FIFA will present the award in 2025.

Who decides who the winner of the Ballon d'Or will be?

The shortlist of players to choose from is created by a select committee, while the actual winner is selected by media representatives who are football experts in their field.