Recently, the Ballon d'Or winner betting odds for 2024 have only seen the trend going in one direction. That direction firmly favours Real Madrid winger Vinicius Jr, who is now as little as 1/8 on to lift the Ballon d’Or, and become the first Brazilian to do so since Kaka in 2007.
In fact, he’s odds on across the board, with his best price going into the final week of September being 4/9. Here, we’ll consider why that is the case, and if there is any hope for his nearest challenger Rodri, who will now miss a huge chunk of 2024/25, if not the entirety of its remainder.
Best Ballon d'Or winner betting odds
Vinicius Jr
4/9 (1.44)
Rodri
9/2 (5.50)
Jude Bellingham
20/1 (21.00)
Dani Carvajal
28/1 (29.00)
Lamine Yamal
40/1 (41.00)
Vinicius Jr – 4/9
After Lionel Messi won his eighth Ballon d'Or in October 2023, the race for the 2024 award quickly began to take shape. The smart money was initially on Erling Haaland, who finished as the runner up behind Messi, fresh off his Champions League triumph with Manchester City.
However, Vinicius Jr has been the favourite to win the 2024 Ballon d'Or for months, after a string of impressive performances in La Liga and the Champions League in the early part of the year, and ultimately lifting the trophy in both competitions.
He ended the 2023/24 season with 24 goals and 10 assists in all competitions. And while there are Ballon d’Or rivals who can trump those numbers, they are impressive for a player who was out injured for more than a month over the Christmas period of last season.
Champions League prowess makes the difference
It's not just his goal record that has seen him become the favourite for the Ballon d'Or but rather the importance of them. He scored twice at the Allianz Arena to earn Real Madrid an undeserved draw in their Champions League semi-final first-leg against Bayern Munich, before going on to net the killer second goal against Dortmund in the final.
The Ballon d’or has always favoured those with European honours, but more especially so over the past 17 years. Indeed nine of the 12 editions spanning 2007 to 2018 saw the winner receive their award in the same year as a UCL triumph. So too did Karim Benzema in 2022, contributing further to another trend that works in Vinicius Jr’s favour – namely, Real Madrid’s joint-supremacy of the competition with Barcelona.
Both of Spain’s ‘big two’ have seen one of their own lift the award 12 times, meaning that Vinicius Jr is very likely to put Los Blancos in front in this particular ‘series’ between the El Clasico rivals. That is a distinction they haven’t had since Johan Cruyff scooped the 1974 with Barcelona.
Rodri – 9/2
Prior to losing to Man Utd in the 2024 FA Cup final, Rodri had recorded 74 consecutive club appearances without defeat, surpassing the previous record held by Paulo Maldini. With a fourth successive Premier League title to boot, that made him a popular bet to lift the Ballon d’Or.
And his case was then furthered by Spain's triumph at Euro 2024. The midfielder was at the heart of everything La Roja did during the tournament and he has now gone more than 500 days without losing a match with the national team.
But Vinicius Jr’s momentum in the Ballon d’Or winners market has been relentless, and after Rodri sustained a serious knee injury in a 2-2 draw against Arsenal on 22nd September, his odds to win the greatest individual honour in football drifted significantly.
Jude Bellingham – 20/1
Jude Bellingham was the favourite to win the 2024 Ballon d'Or just before Euro 2024. However, the Real Madrid man failed to produce his best form for England at the tournament, with a show-stopping late equaliser against Slovakia doing nothing to alter his negative trajectory in the Ballon d’Or winners market.
Of course, nothing should be taken away from his excellent debut at Real Madrid. The 21-year-old scored 23 goals and provided 12 assists during the 2023/24 season, and flourished in the advanced role that Carlo Ancelotti carved out for him. However, it seems too speculative to say with any confidence that he will end the 23-year wait for an Englishman to win the Ballon d'Or.
Dani Carvajal – 28/1
Hopeless though it seems in light of Vinicius Jr’s price, Carvajal's case is helped by the fact he has won La Liga, the Champions League and Euro 2024 this year. As we know, trophies go a long way to determining the Ballon d’Or winner – but so do key moments, and the 32-year-old has one of them too, specifically his header against Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League final that broke the deadlock.
In short, Carvajal isn’t going to win the 2024 Ballon d’Or, but he could well be a dark horse for third place, and worth backing if any markets for the silver and bronze places become active.
Lamine Yamal – 40/1
After watching Lamine Yamal light up Euro 2024 at the age of 16, there is a feeling that it would be a huge shock if he doesn't go on to win the Ballon d'Or at some point in his career. That point is unlikely to be this year, but he is still considered the fifth favourite with the bookmakers.
Yamal has become a Barcelona and Spain regular despite his young age, and scored the goal of the tournament at Euro 2024 when he found the back of the net with a wicked left-footed strike from distance in the semi-finals against France.
The teenager also ended the tournament as the top assist maker with four, proving that he is the real deal. Such accolades may provide some of the reasoning behind Yamal being as short as 8/1 to win the Ballon d’Or going into the final week of September.
