Almeria vs Atletico Madrid prediction, odds & betting tips – 24/02/2024

24/02/24 - 20:00

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Almeria - Atletico Madrid

Spain La Liga - Estadio de los Juegos Mediterraneos

Almeria are still waiting for their first win of the 2023/24 La Liga season when they welcome Atletico Madrid to the Power Horse Stadium this Saturday. Our Almeria vs Atletico Madrid prediction and La Liga betting tips consider whether they can upset Diego Simeone’s side who are struggling on their travels.

Almeria vs Atletico Madrid prediction: Hosts to compete but extend record breaking winless run

Key Stats

• Our Almeria vs Atletico Madrid betting tips and correct score prediction take into account Atleti’s poor away record with 50% of their road games in La Liga this term ending in defeat.
• Almeria have tended to raise their game against the stronger sides, not losing by more than a single goal in any of their last four matches against current top four opponents.
• Bizarrely, winless Almeria have the seventh highest xG tally in La Liga of 33.0 and they’ve been competitive in most games.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Atleti favourites despite away day blues

• HOME: 15/4 (4.75) – 21.1%
• DRAW: 3/1 (4.00) – 25.0%
• AWAY: 3/4 (1.75) – 57.1%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

The visitors are the favourites according to the Almeria vs Atletico Madrid odds with an implied probability of 57.1% that they win this game. Their form has been patchy and they head into this match after a 1-0 defeat to Inter in the Champions League in midweek which leaves them with work to do in the return.

Our free betting tips suggest the hosts can compete though. Almeria came close to ending a 28 game winless streak, the longest in La Liga history, in their 1-1 draw at fellow strugglers Granada last weekend.

Last five H2Hs: Just one point for Almeria since promotion

Spain La Liga 10/12/23

Atletico Madrid

2

Almeria

1

Spain La Liga 16/04/23

Atletico Madrid

2

Almeria

1

Spain La Liga 15/01/23

Almeria

1

Atletico Madrid

1

Spain La Liga 21/02/15

Atletico Madrid

3

Almeria

0

Spain La Liga 24/09/14

Almeria

0

Atletico Madrid

1

Atletico Madrid have dominated the overall head-to-head of late, but it’s worth noting they have only won on one of their last six visits to Almeria in all competitions, drawing 1-1 here last term. Our Almeria vs Atletico Madrid prediction suggests a repeat outcome is very possible on Saturday.

Almeria Preview: Baptistao returns from suspension

Almeria have forward Leo Baptistao available again this weekend but are still missing Luis Suarez and Ibrahima Kone to injury.

Predicted Lineup: Maximiano (GK), Langa, Radovanovic, Edgar, Pubill, Lopy, Robertone, Baptistao, Viera, Arribas, Lozano

Spain Segunda 09/05/25

L

Cadiz

2

Almeria

1

Spain Segunda 04/05/25

W

Eldense

0

Almeria

5

Spain Segunda 29/04/25

W

Racing Ferrol

1

Almeria

2

Spain Segunda 18/04/25

L

CD Castellon

4

Almeria

1

Spain Segunda 13/04/25

W

FC Cartagena

1

Almeria

2

Atletico Madrid Preview: Rotation likely ahead of Cup Semi

Atletico may make some light changes with this game sandwiched between two big cup games and they’ll have to make do without star player Antoine Griezmann who is injured.

Predicted Lineup: Oblak (GK), Reinildo, Gabriel Paulista, Savic, Riquelme, Saul, Vermeeren, Barrios, Molina, Correa, Depay

Spain La Liga 10/05/25

W

Real Sociedad

0

Atletico Madrid

4

Spain La Liga 03/05/25

D

CD Alaves

0

Atletico Madrid

0

Spain La Liga 24/04/25

W

Rayo Vallecano

0

Atletico Madrid

3

Spain La Liga 19/04/25

L

Las Palmas

1

Atletico Madrid

0

Spain La Liga 14/04/25

W

Valladolid

2

Atletico Madrid

4

Player to watch – Memphis Depay

With Griezmann out and Alvaro Morata only just back from injury, Memphis Depay looks set to start for Atleti. His five goals have come at a rate of one every 107 minutes in La Liga this term which is a healthy rate.

Dutch danger after the break

Memphis Depay has scored four of his five league goals in the Second Half. He has frequently been used as a substitute which may explain that with two of those strikes coming after the 75th minute while all three of his Copa del Rey goals have been after the hour mark.