World Cup rule changes and what it means for betting

With the World Cup set to start on June 11, the International Football Association Board (IFAB) have confirmed a number of new rule changes that will be enforced during the tournament hosted by Canada, Mexico and the United States.

These include added VAR protocols, attempts to reduce timewasting and harsher punishments for unsportsmanlike behaviour.

The following rule changes have been set for the World Cup:

• Five-second countdowns for throw-ins and goal-kicks
• Red cards for players covering their mouths during confrontations (in light of the incident involving Vinicius Jr and Gianluca Prestianni where the former accused the latter of making a racist comment towards him during Real Madrid's Champions League tie against Benfica earlier this season)
• Punishments for nations walking off the pitch in protest (in light of Senegal walking off the pitch in protest of a refereeing decision during the AFCON final against Morocco earlier this season)
• Mandatory one-minute off-field treatment period (exceptions will apply in cases involving goalkeeper injuries, collisions, head injuries, concussions or situations where the injured player is due to take a penalty)
• VAR can intervene for wrongly-awarded second yellow cards, mistaken identity incidents and incorrectly-awarded corner kicks
• Officials can step in if a foul is committed before the ball is in play at a set-piece, such as an attacker blocking a defender before a corner is taken
• Substituted players will have just 10 seconds to leave the pitch after the substitution board has been shown and must exit using the nearest point on the boundary line (if a player fails to leave within the time limit, their replacement will only be allowed onto the pitch at the first stoppage after one minute has elapsed following the restart)
• Mandatory three-minute hydration break in each half during every World Cup match, with referees given flexibility over when the stoppage takes place depending on injuries or the flow of the game

Of course, these rule changes will also have an affect on betting, and we have outlined how certain markets can benefit and be hindered by them below:

World Cup rule changes and what it means for betting

More goals in regulation time

Markets affected: Total goals, BTTS

The reduction of timewasting should theoretically allow for more goals to potentially be scored in regulation time. In fact, there could be a 5-10% increase in average effective playing time from the 2022 World Cup, which was between 56-58 minutes.

Should this happen, the popular BTTS market could see an increase in wins with both nations having longer time to score, while Over x goals is another that could become more popular should we see a general increase in goals.

Fewer goals in stoppage time

Markets affected: Stoppage time goal bets

Theoretically, a decrease in timewasting should also see fewer minutes added on in stoppage time to compensate for it. Thus, there is less time for stoppage time goals, and so we could see fewer goals scored beyond the 90th minute.

More penalties and cards

Markets affected: Penalty in match, Total cards

With VAR able to intervene for possible fouls before a set-piece is being taken, we could see more penalties awarded and cards given. Players can also receive red cards for covering their mouths during confrontations, which further enhances the Over x cards market.

“Rhythm-breaking” nations punished

Markets affected: Match result, Total cards

Nations who will typically use “dark arts” to try and slow the game down if protecting a lead will be punished further with the new timewasting protocols. Typically, these nations include the likes of Croatia, Morocco and Uruguay, which could reduce their chances of beating the traditionally more attacking powerhouses like Argentina, Brazil, France and Spain.

Fewer goals from substitutes

Markets affected: Goals from substitutes

Players being substituted must leave the pitch at the nearest boundary line within 10 seconds, and should they fail to, the substitute will not be able to come on until the first stoppage after one minute has elapsed following the restart. This would give substitutes less time to score or have a significant impact, while also giving an advantage to the nation with an extra player on the field.

Live betting more volatile

Markets affected: Live betting

With the reduction in timewasting, it should theoretically mean games run smoother with fewer stoppages. This means live odds will change faster, which benefits bettors who are more responsive and well-equipped, while hindering bettors who place their bets in advance.