Looking to avoid a fifth group-stage exit in eight Africa Cup of Nations appearances, Uganda will aim to defy the odds and secure a result against already-qualified Nigeria in Tuesday’s round three clash in Group C.
The Cranes sit bottom of the group, having failed to win either of their opening two matches (D1, L1), while the Super Eagles are already assured of topping the pool after two victories.
Our Uganda vs Nigeria prediction provides a clear view of this contest, with further AFCON betting tips also available.
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Uganda vs Nigeria prediction: Expect goals in Fez
Key stats:
- Uganda have both scored and conceded in four of their last five matches.
- Nigeria have won seven of their last nine AFCON group-stage encounters (D1, L1).
- Nine of Uganda’s last 14 games have produced over 2.5 goals.
Correct score prediction: Uganda 1–2 Nigeria
There is little at stake for Nigeria, which could lead coach Eric Chelle to rotate his squad, having secured victories over Tanzania (2–1) and Tunisia (3–2) in the opening two rounds.
Uganda, by contrast, are in need of a result following a 3–1 opening-day defeat to Tunisia and a 1–1 draw with Tanzania on matchday two. A win here would improve their chances of advancing as one of the best third-placed teams, even if finishing second ultimately proves out of reach.
Despite this, Nigeria should still grind out a hard-fought victory, as the gulf in squad quality remains clear, even with a rotated lineup. That said, the Cranes could find the net, making a competitive encounter likely.
Pre-match odds and win probability: Good value for Nigeria?
- HOME: 21/10 (3.10) – 32.3%
- DRAW: 2/1 (3.00) – 33.3%
- AWAY: 23/20 (2.15) – 46.5%
*Odds courtesy of Ladbrokes and are subject to change.
A 23/20 price for Nigeria with a 46.5% win probability looks generous, even though the Super Eagles may rotate their squad. Meanwhile, Uganda are priced at 21/10, suggesting the underdogs could sneak a result, with a draw available at 2/1.
Our hot tip of both teams to score offers excellent value at 11/10.
Most recent H2H: First meeting in seven years
The last encounter between these nations came in 2018, ending in a goalless friendly draw, though Uganda hold the advantage in overall meetings, with four wins in eight clashes (D2, L2).
International Match 20/11/18
Nigeria
Uganda
African Nations C'ship Qualifying 25/03/15
Nigeria
Uganda
Uganda preview: Paul Put to tinker once again?
Uganda reported no fresh injuries following the draw against Tanzania, giving coach Paul Put a variety of options to select from.
The manager made five changes from the opening-day lineup last time out, including dropping goalkeeper Jamal Salim in favour of veteran Denis Onyango, and further adjustments are possible here.
Predicted XI: Onyango (GK), Kayondo, Sibbick, Byaruhanga, Obita, Semakula, Mutyaba, Okello, Omedi, Mato & Ssemugabi
Uganda’s last five results:
- 27/12/25: Uganda 1–1 Tanzania (D)
- 23/12/25: Tunisia 3–1 Uganda (L)
- 18/11/25: Morocco 4–0 Uganda (L)
- 14/11/25: Uganda 2–1 Chad (W)
- 14/10/25: Algeria 2–1 Uganda (L)
Nigeria preview: Chelle likely to rotate
Nigeria also finished their game against Tunisia unscathed, giving Eric Chelle plenty of options. With the Super Eagles already through to the next stage, we could see a heavily rotated squad.
Even if not, players such as Chidera Ejuke, Moses Simon, Chidozi Awaziem, and Paul Onuachu are likely to still see significant minutes on the pitch.
Predicted XI: Nwabali (GK), Onyemaechi, Bassey, Ajayi, Osayi-Samuel, Ndidi, Iwobi, Onyeka, Lookman, Osimhen & Adams
Nigeria’s last five results:
- 27/12/25: Nigeria 3–2 Tunisia (W)
- 23/12/25: Nigeria 2–1 Tanzania (W)
- 16/12/25: Egypt 2–1 Nigeria (L)
- 16/11/25: Nigeria 1–2 DR Congo (L)
- 13/11/25: Nigeria 4–1 Gabon (W)
Player to watch: Uche Ikpeazu
Born to Ugandan and Nigerian parents, this match holds personal significance for Uche Ikpeazu. The 30-year-old forward came off the bench to score the equaliser for the Cranes against Tanzania and is likely to push for a starting berth here.