Real vs Atletico first goalscorer prediction and odds: Goal threats on both sides of the Madrid divide

It’s derby weekend in the Spanish capital with Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid facing off for the fourth time this season and the third time in 2024. There have been 18 goals in the meetings so far this term and there’s no shortage of Real vs Atletico first goalscorer options with a number of players on both sides enjoying great seasons in front of goal.

Both sides are expected to have their best attacking options all available too so there’s plenty of reason to think we’ll get goals at the Santiago Bernabeu. Real Madrid have only lost two games so far this season in all competitions  – but both defeats came against none other than their capital rivals, so they’ll be hungry to set the record straight on Sunday.

real vs atletico first goalscorer - Bellingham
Real Madrid midfielder Jude Bellingham reaches for the ball against Atletico in the Supercopa in January – Photo by Icon sport

Real vs Atletico first goalscorer prediction – Our picks

Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid) – 11/2

While Jude Bellingham has only scored one goal since the turn of the year, he’s still the joint top scorer in La Liga with 14 goals. Carlo Ancelotti is still using him in an advanced midfield role where he has license to roam forwards and get into shooting positions.

Bellingham has also taken on penalty duties, with a slightly scuffed effort finding the back of the net in the 3-2 win over Almeria in Real Madrid’s last home game. That’s another reason to think the Englishman still has every chance of opening the scoring in this game.

Rodrygo (Real Madrid) – 13/2

Real Madrid rotated in a number of positions on Thursday night at Getafe and Joselu came into the side for Rodrygo and scored both goals in a 2-0 win. However there’s little reason to think the Spaniard will keep his place for this derby showdown with Rodrygo expected to partner Vinicius Junior in attack.

Rodrygo is one ahead of his compatriot in the goalscoring rankings this season with 12 in all competitions and 7 in La Liga. He’s also available at slightly longer odds to score first in this game than Vinicius who’s a best priced 5/1.

Alvaro Morata first goalscorer
Alvaro Morata celebrates after he scored in the Copa del Rey derby in January – Photo by Icon Sport

Alvaro Morata (Atletico Madrid) – 8/1

As far as the visitors go, if you’re looking for a Real vs Atletico first goalscorer prediction, it’s hard to look past the dynamic front duo of Alvaro Morata and Antoine Griezmann, one of the best strike pairings in European football this term.

Morata has fired in 19 goals in all competitions for his club and he’d dearly love to make that 20 on familiar soil as he returns to the Bernabeu this weekend. 4 of his 5 goals since the turn of the year have come in big games too with Morata bagging a hat-trick against Girona and also netting in the Copa del Rey derby last month which Atleti won 4-2 in Extra Time.

Morata also bagged a brace in the league meeting earlier in the season. He is expected to be fit for this game despite missing the midweek win over Rayo.

Antoine Griezmann (Atletico Madrid) – 17/2

It was a wonderful solo goal from Antoine Griezmann in Extra Time that set Atleti on their way to that cup victory at the Civitas Metropolitano. The Frenchman was rested in midweek so should be fresh and hungry for more against Los Blancos this weekend.

Griezmann has netted 11 times in La Liga 2023/24 and has 18 in all competitions, which is an excellent return for a player who is often Atleti’s chief creator as well as a scorer of key goals.

This will be his 41st career appearance against Real Madrid, but he’s only registered 11 goals and he hasn’t scored at the Bernabeu since April 2018.

Real vs Atletico first goalscorer predictions
Dani Carvajal scoring the winning goal in Stoppage Time against Almeria last month – Photo by Icon Sport

Dani Carvajal (Real Madrid) – 40/1

If you’re looking for more of an outsider Real vs Atletico first goalscorer pick, you can do worse than look at Dani Carvajal who’s available at long odds to break the deadlock.

Carvajal has been getting into lots of advanced positions this season and he scored a dramatic late winner in Real Madrid’s last home game against Almeria. The right back also scored in the 5-3 Supercopa Semi-Final win over Atletico in January and is on 4 goals for the season which suggests odds of 40/1 are quite generous for the experienced Spain international to score first.


Avatar of Mark Sochon
Mark Sochon

Mark is a freelance football writer based in Madrid. He regularly attends and covers La Liga matches around Spain, whilst also following football across Europe.