The quarter-finals of the 2025–26 Taca de Portugal will see two of the competition’s most successful sides go head-to-head on Wednesday, as Porto host Benfica at Estadio do Dragao in the second O’Classico of the season.
The Dragons are targeting a 21st Portuguese Cup triumph, having eliminated Celoricense, Sintrense and Famalicao in earlier rounds, while the Eagles are seeking their first trophy since lifting the cup in 2016–17 and have progressed past Chaves, Atletico CP, and Farense to reach this stage.
Our Porto vs Benfica prediction provides a clear outlook on the contest, with additional Taca de Portugal betting tips also included.
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Porto vs Benfica prediction: Arch-rivals clash for supremacy
Key stats:
- Porto have scored first in each of their last 12 matches across all competitions.
- The Dragons enter this fixture on a seven-match winning run.
- Benfica have both scored and conceded in each of their last three outings.
- Porto have won 12 of their 14 home games this season (D1, L1).
Correct score prediction: Porto 2–1 Benfica
Porto approach this encounter with strong momentum, after extending their winning streak to seven matches with a narrow 1–0 victory away to Santa Clara.
That result also marked a third successive clean sheet, although shutting out a Benfica side that has scored in 12 consecutive matches may prove more challenging.
However, Jose Mourinho’s men do not have momentum on their side heading into this encounter, having suffered a 3–1 defeat to Braga in last week’s Taca da Liga semi-final.
As such, we are therefore backing Porto to claim a 2–1 win, fuelled by home support and with Benfica also battling uncertainty in defence.
Pre-match odds and win probability: Hosts slight favourites
- HOME: 6/5 (2.20) – 45.5%
- DRAW: 2/1 (3.00) – 33.3%
- AWAY: 2/1 (3.00) – 33.3%
*Odds courtesy of Ladbrokes and subject to change.
The odds point to a competitive contest, though Porto hold a narrow edge with a 45.5% implied chance of winning in regulation time. Benfica are priced at 33.3%, which is the same probability attached to a draw.
Our hot tip — Porto to score over 1.5 goals — offers solid value at 7/5 (2.40).
Most recent H2H: Porto aiming to end winless run
The most recent meeting between the sides ended in a goalless league draw at the Dragao in October, meaning Porto are winless in the last three encounters (L2) against Benfica.
Portugal Primeira Liga 05/10/25
FC Porto
Benfica
Portugal Primeira Liga 06/04/25
FC Porto
Benfica
Portugal Primeira Liga 10/11/24
Benfica
FC Porto
Portugal Primeira Liga 03/03/24
FC Porto
Benfica
Portugal Primeira Liga 29/09/23
Benfica
FC Porto
Porto preview: Uncertainty at left-back
Porto are sweating over the fitness of Francisco Moura, who was forced off during the win against Santa Clara This potentially leaves head coach Francesco Farioli short at left-back, particularly with Zaidu Sanusi still away on Africa Cup of Nations duty with Nigeria.
Luuk de Jong is ruled out with a knee injury, while Nehuen Perez and Tomas Perez continue their recovery from respective Achilles tendon problems.
Predicted XI: C Ramos (GK), Fernandes, Kiwior, Bednarek, A Costa, Froholdt, Rosario, Mora, Pepe, Samu & Sainz
Porto’s last five results:
- 04/01/26: Santa Clara 0–1 Porto (W)
- 29/12/25: Porto 2–0 AFS (W)
- 22/12/25: Alverca 0–3 Porto (W)
- 18/12/25: Porto 4–1 Famalicao (W)
- 15/12/25: Porto 3–1 Estrela (W)
Benfica preview: Mourinho faces defensive dilemma
Benfica will be without veteran defender Nicolas Otamendi after his dismissal against Braga, meaning the 37-year-old will serve a suspension on Wednesday
Further defensive concerns remain, with Antonio Silva doubtful after missing the last two matches, while midfielder Enzo Barrenechea is also a fitness concern.
Alexander Bah, Nuno Felix, Bruma, Dodi Lukebakio and Samuel Soares are all sidelined through injury.
Predicted XI: Trubin (GK), Dedic, T Araujo, A Silva, Dahl, Ríos, M Silva, Sudakov, Barreiro, Aursnes & Pavlidis
Benfica’s last five results:
- 07/01/26: Benfica 1–3 Braga (L)
- 03/01/26: Benfica 3–1 Estoril (W)
- 28/12/25: Braga 2–2 Benfica (D)
- 22/12/25: Benfica 1–0 Famalicao (W)
- 17/12/25: SC Farense 0–2 Benfica (W)
Player to watch: Samu Aghehowa
Samu Aghehowa enters this fixture in prolific form, having scored nine goals in his last seven appearances for Porto.
The Spanish forward has also found the net in two of his last three meetings with Benfica, making him a key figure to watch on Wednesday.