Burnley vs Newcastle prediction, odds & betting tips – 04/05/2024

Burnley
04/05/24 - 15:00

Finished

1

-

4

Newcastle

Burnley - Newcastle

England Premier League - Turf Moor

Burnley vs Newcastle prediction
Newcastle United's Bruno Guimaraes (left) and Burnley's Josh Brownhill battle for the ball – Photo by Icon Sport

We're bringing you our Premier League predictions for Newcastle's trip to Burnley on Saturday.

Hosts Burnley are battling for their Premier League survival and could really do with a victory this weekend, while Newcastle are still in the race for a top-five finish and could move up one place and into sixth if they better  Manchester United's result.

Burnley vs Newcastle predictions: Both teams need the points

Burnley vs Newcastle Predictions
Our pick

🔥 Hot Tip

BTTS

⚽ Correct Score prediction

Burnley 1-1 Newcastle

⬆️ Over 2.5 Goals prediction

No

Key Stats

  • Three of the last five league meetings between Burnley and Newcastle have ended with both teams scoring, while five of the host's last six outings in the Premier League have produced goals at both ends of the pitch.
  • Four of Burnley's last six league games have ended in draws, three of which ended 1-1. Newcastle have only won one of their last six away games (within 90 minutes) in all competitions which is another reason we have backed a 1-1 draw this weekend.
  • Three of the last four head-to-heads between these two clubs have produced under 2.5 goals, while four of the host's last six fixtures have witnessed fewer than three goals.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Newcastle the clear favourite

  • HOME: 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%
  • DRAW: 3/1 (4.00) – 25%
  • AWAY: 21/20 (2.05) – 48.8%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Newcastle are the expected winners of this game with a probability of 48.8%, but we're predicting a close and competitive match on Saturday.

Burnley played out a 1-1 draw at Manchester United last time out, while Newcastle thrashed Sheff Utd 5-1 at St James' Park.

For more football betting tips on the game, check out the Anytime Goalscorer market. Newcastle's Alexander Isak is the bookmaker's pick to score in this game at 11/10 (2.10) which has a probability of 47.6%, while Burnley's Lyle Foster is priced at 27/10 (3.70) with a probability of 27%.

Last five H2Hs: Burnley edge it

England Premier League 30/09/23

Newcastle

Newcastle

2
Burnley

Burnley

0

England Premier League 22/05/22

Burnley

Burnley

1
Newcastle

Newcastle

2

England Premier League 04/12/21

Newcastle

Newcastle

1
Burnley

Burnley

0

England EFL Cup 25/08/21

Newcastle

Newcastle

0 (3)
Burnley

Burnley

0 (4)

England Premier League 11/04/21

Burnley

Burnley

1
Newcastle

Newcastle

2

The hosts have claimed 34 wins, 17 draws and 33 defeats from their last 84 games against Newcastle in all competitions.

Team news and form guide

Burnley: Only lost one of last six

Aaron Ramsey, Jordan Beyer, Nathan Redmond, Ameen Al-Dakhil and Luca Koleosho could all miss the Newcastle game due to injury so Vincent Kompany could go with the same starting lineup that faced Manchester United.

Predicted lineup: Murić (GK), O'Shea, Vitinho, Esteve, Assignon, Berge, Cullen, Bruun Larsen, Foster, Fofana & Odobert

UK Friendlies 09/07/24

L

Warrington Rylands

Warrington Rylands

2

Burnley

Burnley

1

England Premier League 19/05/24

L

Nottm Forest

Nottm Forest

2

Burnley

Burnley

1

England Premier League 11/05/24

L

Tottenham

Tottenham

2

Burnley

Burnley

1

England Premier League 04/05/24

L

Newcastle

Newcastle

4

Burnley

Burnley

1

England Premier League 27/04/24

D

Man Utd

Man Utd

1

Burnley

Burnley

1

Newcastle: Struggled in their last away game

The visitors could be without Matt Targett, Sven Botman, Jamaal Lascelles, Joseph Willock, Lewis Miley, Joelinton, Kieran Trippier and Nick Pope through injury, but Fabian Schar and Miguel Almiron are expected to be available.

Predicted lineup: Dúbravka (GK), Schär, Burn, Livramento, Hall, Murphy, Guimarães, Anderson, Longstaff, Isak & Gordon 

Elite Club Friendlies 24/05/24

L

A-League All Stars

A-League All Stars

8

Newcastle

Newcastle

0

Elite Club Friendlies 22/05/24

W

Tottenham

Tottenham

1 (4)

Newcastle

Newcastle

1 (5)

England Premier League 19/05/24

W

Brentford

Brentford

2

Newcastle

Newcastle

4

England Premier League 15/05/24

L

Man Utd

Man Utd

3

Newcastle

Newcastle

2

England Premier League 11/05/24

D

Brighton

Brighton

1

Newcastle

Newcastle

1

Player to watch – Dara O'Shea

Burnley's Dara O'Shea has impressed in his debut season with the club after making the step up from the Championship at West Brom.

Dara O'Shea player to watch
Dara O'Shea of Burnley runs with the ball – Photo by Icon Sport

The Irish defender as been very consistent at the back for Vincent Kompany's side but has also chipped in with a couple of league goals. However, it's creatively where O'Shea has shined with the 25-year-old providing four assists this season, more than any other Burnley player.

The Irish defender has been excellent this season

If Burnley are going to get anything out of this game then O'Shea is going to have to be at his best at both ends of the pitch as Newcastle have some fantastic attacking talent and the hosts are likely to need at least one goal to even secure a point this weekend.


A lifelong Evertonian, James started writing for an Everton fan site in the mid-2000s and then developed his own blog covering football transfers from across Europe's big leagues before becoming a regular match preview and betting tips writer for Biggest Free Bets. James moved to Free Super Tips next, and then Racing Post, where he worked as a full-time betting tips writer for a few years. Following that, James joined Football Whispers in December 2020 and has been a permanent fixture ever-since, currently covering the Premier League amongst other things