Metz vs Marseille prediction, odds & betting tips – 04/10/2025
Credit: IMAGO / PRESSE SPORTS
🔥 Our Hot tip

Home win or draw and both teams to score

Marseille have enjoyed a nine-game unbeaten streak against Metz, with seven of those outings seeing both teams score, including the most recent three meetings.

Fresh from an emphatic Champions League victory, Les Olympiens will aim to carry that momentum into this weekend’s Ligue 1 visit to Metz, seeking a fourth successive win in the French top flight.

Read our Metz vs Marseille predictions and preview to find out, but remember to also check our other Ligue 1 tips.

Metz vs Marseille preview: Les Olympiens aim to continue winning streak

Key stats:

  • Marseille have emerged victorious in each of their last three Ligue 1 outings.
  • Metz remain winless in their six league games this term, having suffered four defeats.
  • Marseille’s most recent win over Metz came with a 2-1 scoreline.

Correct score prediction: Metz 1-2 Marseille

Les Phocéens lost their first two away games of the Ligue 1 season without finding the net but responded with a 2-0 success at Strasbourg last weekend to claim their initial victory on the road, and confidence is likely to follow into this encounter, although the visitors may concede once again, having let in exactly one goal in all three league trips so far.

Pre-match analysis: Visitors overwhelming favourites

  • HOME: 19/4 (5.75) – 17.4%
  • DRAW: 17/5 (4.40) – 22.7%
  • AWAY: 1/2 (1.50) – 66.7%

*Odds courtesy of Ladbrokes; subject to change.

The above odds highlight Marseille as clear favourites, boasting more than three times the probability of victory compared to their hosts. Les Olympiens carry a 66.7% chance of winning, which aligns with expectations given their current run of form, while Metz’s 17.4% probability underlines the uphill task facing the hosts in this encounter.

Our hot tip of a home win or draw with both sides scoring offers odds of 2.00, providing solid value given Marseille’s unbeaten history in this fixture combined with the fact that recent meetings have often seen goals at both ends.

Most recent H2H: Draws dominate recent meetings

The last encounter between Metz and Marseille ended 1-1 at the Stade Velodrome, while both league fixtures last term concluded as stalemates, making draws the result in six of the previous seven meetings between these sides.

France Ligue 1 09/02/24

Marseille

Marseille

1
Metz

Metz

1

France Ligue 1 18/08/23

Metz

Metz

2
Marseille

Marseille

2

France Ligue 1 13/02/22

Metz

Metz

1
Marseille

Marseille

2

France Ligue 1 07/11/21

Marseille

Marseille

0
Metz

Metz

0

France Ligue 1 23/05/21

Metz

Metz

1
Marseille

Marseille

1

Metz preview: Sabibou Sane returns from suspension

Metz occupy the bottom spot in the Ligue 1 standings, remaining the only team yet to record a win this season, with two points from six games. Stephane Le Mignan’s squad come into this clash off a goalless draw with Le Havre and will aim to end a five-match winless home sequence this weekend.

The manager faces uncertainty over Fode Ballo-Toure and Malick Mbaye, both doubts for the game, while Joseph Mangondo and Benjamin Stambouli are confirmed absentees due to injury. On a brighter note, Sabibou Sane returns to contention after serving a three-match suspension.

Predicted XI: Fischer (GK); Kouao, Yegbe, Gbamin, Tsitaishvili, B. Traore, Deminguet, Sane, Hein, Sabaly & Diallo

  • 28/09/25: Metz 0-0 Le Havre (D)
  • 21/09/25: Monaco 5-2 Metz (L)
  • 14/09/25: Metz 1-1 Angers (D)
  • 31/08/25: Paris FC 3-2 Metz (L)
  • 23/08/25: Lyon 3-0 Metz (L)

Marseille preview: At least three absent

Marseille head into the weekend following a successful continental display, having thrashed Ajax 4-0 at the Velodrome in the Champions League, marking three consecutive wins across all competitions, including a 2-1 triumph at Strasbourg in Ligue 1. Roberto De Zerbi’s men sit third in the top-flight standings with 12 points from four wins and two defeats, seeking to climb further with a victory in this fixture.

At least hree players are expected to miss the trip to Metz, with Hamed Traore, Facundo Medina and Geoffrey Kondogbia all ruled out due to injury.

Predicted XI: Rulli (GK); Murillo, Balerdi, Aguerd, Medina; O’Riley, Hojbjerg; Greenwood, Gomes, Weah & Gouiri

  • 30/09/25: Marseille 4-0 Ajax (W)
  • 26/09/25: Strasbourg 1-2 Marseille (W)
  • 22/09/25: Marseille 1-0 PSG (W)
  • 16/09/25: Real Madrid 2-1 Marseille (L)
  • 12/09/25: Marseille 4-0 Lorient (W)

Player to watch: Mason Greenwood

Mason Greenwood (Credit – IMAGO / PRESSE SPORTS)

Greenwood was Ligue 1’s joint top scorer last season with 21 goals but has had a slow start this term, netting twice in six outings while also providing three assists. Following his goal in midweek, the English forward will be looking to score in consecutive matches for the first time this season, bringing confidence and sharpness into the Metz clash.


Adeyeye Oluwapelumi is a writer with over four years of experience covering football and a range of global sports. A passionate Arsenal fan since 2004, he brings sharp insight and a genuine love for the game to every piece.