Luton vs Derby prediction, odds & betting tips – 20/12/2024

Luton and Derby will open the next Championship round on Friday, 20 December.

With both teams struggling to get points lately, who will emerge victorious from this duel? Read our Luton vs Derby prediction to learn more about this match.

Luton vs Derby prediction: A narrow win for the home team

Key stats

• Both teams have scored in 73% of Luton's home matches in the league this season.
• We saw both teams score in 64% of Derby's away games in the Championship so far.
• Luton have won three of their last five duels with Derby County.

Correct score prediction: Luton 2-1 Derby

Given that this is a duel between two teams separated by just a couple of points in the standings and that neither of them have done well recently, we expect it to be close. That being said, Luton will have the advantage of playing at home and we expect them to take it and edge out a narrow win over Derby.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Luton backed by the bookies

• HOME: 9/8 – 47.10%
• DRAW: 9/4 – 30.80%
• AWAY: 5/2 – 28.60%

*Odds from 7Bet, subject to change

We can see from these Luton vs Derby odds that the hosts are seen as the expected winners, but it is not by a big margin, which makes sense given that these teams are close in the standings and that Derby are ahead by a couple of points.

In any case, if you liked our predictions for this duel, take a look at our other football betting tips for today.

Most recent H2Hs: Luton with the advantage

In the last five meetings between these two teams we saw Luton win three times, along with one draw and one win for Derby. Meanwhile, the two teams are tied when it comes to their overall H2H record: 18-11-18.

England Championship 26/02/22

Luton

1

Derby

0

England Championship 19/10/21

Derby

2

Luton

2

England Championship 02/04/21

Derby

2

Luton

0

England Championship 19/09/20

Luton

2

Derby

1

England Championship 28/01/20

Luton

3

Derby

2

Luton preview: Looking for important points at home

With 22 points from 21 games in the Championship so far, Luton have clearly struggled and they have been very inconsistent this season. After all, they are currently just five points ahead of the first team in the relegation zone, which is not a good place to be for a team that played in the Premier League last season.

Meanwhile, Alfie Doughty, Reece Burke, Teden Mengi, and Reuell Walters are all out with injuries, while Liam Walsh is suspended for this game.

Predicted lineup: Kaminski (GK), Holmes, McGuinness, Hashioka, Moses, Krauss, Clark, Chong, Adebayo, Woodrow & Morris

England Championship 03/05/25

L

West Brom

5

Luton

3

England Championship 26/04/25

W

Coventry

0

Luton

1

England Championship 21/04/25

W

Bristol City

1

Luton

3

England Championship 18/04/25

W

Derby

0

Luton

1

England Championship 12/04/25

L

Blackburn

1

Luton

0

Derby preview: Hoping to build on last round's result

After six games without a win in the Championship, Derby County finally ended this poor run with an emphatic 4-0 win over Portsmouth in the last round. Thanks to this win, Derby have moved up to the 14th place in the standings, but still remain closer to the relegation zone than the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Eiran Cashin and David Ozoh are on Derby's injury list ahead of this game.

Predicted lineup: Zetterstrom (GK), Wilson, Nelson, Phillips, Forsyth, Goudmijn, Osborn, Adams, Mendez-Laing, Harness & Yates

England Championship 03/05/25

D

Stoke

0

Derby

0

England Championship 26/04/25

W

Hull

0

Derby

1

England Championship 21/04/25

W

West Brom

1

Derby

3

England Championship 18/04/25

L

Luton

1

Derby

0

England Championship 12/04/25

D

Portsmouth

2

Derby

2

Player to watch: Carlton Morris

The experienced English forward has five goals in the Championship this season, same as his partner from Luton's offence Elijah Adebayo. However, Morris has been more efficient since he scored his five goals in fewer games and that's one of the reason's why he's our player to watch against Derby.