Kylian Mbappe was the clear favourite among the Ligue 1 top scorer odds back in January, with the 24-year-old having scored more than double the amount of goals as his nearest challenger.
But the situation has changed since the beginning of 2024, especially with Mbappe now seemingly bound for Real Madrid. And in order to prepare for the looming post-Mbappe era, PSG manager Luis Enrique has cut the World Cup winner's game time significantly.
One player who has benefitted from Mbappe’s recent withdrawal is Lille’s Jonathan David, who has closed the gap behind PSG's powerhouse in the goalscoring charts. Here, we will find out how the Ligue 1 top scorer odds reflect bookmakers' views, as David looks to prevent Mbappe from breaking Jean-Pierre Papin's record of five straight golden boot wins in the French top flight.
Ligue 1 top scorer odds: Mbappe vs David
Mbappe Ligue 1 top scorer odds are still placed at 1/100, shortening from 1/50 in January. This drop suggests the French superstar can hold or extend his current nine-goal advantage over David, and secure an unprecedented sixth top scorer award, excelling Carlos Bianchi, Delio Onnis and Jean-Pierre Papin in the process.
The outcome may not be as cut and dry as the bookmakers suggest though, as Mbappe has only completed 90 minutes three times in PSG’s last seven matches.
Yet, Enrique’s switch to alternative attacking options has done little to damage Mbappe’s scoring rate, and the 25-year-old has scored four goals in his last five Ligue 1 matches, including a hat-trick in PSG's 6-2 win over Montpellier.
David has somewhat taken advantage of Mbappe’s decreasing game time. The Lille forward has scored seven goals in his last four Ligue 1 appearances, taking his tally to 15 for the campaign.
Although the Canadian’s form has been impressive, he will need to keep up his current goalscorer rate to overtake Mbappe. Only nine fixtures remain this season, giving logic to David's average price of 18/1 to ruin Mbappe's chances of making history.
Best of the rest: Ex-Gunners enjoying late flourish
Alexandre Lacazette
Experienced striker Alexandre Lacazette has been Lyon’s key man in helping Les Gones to rise up the Ligue 1 table in 2024.
The side from Southern France were firmly in a relegation battle at the turn of the year but improved form under Pierre Sage since late November shot Lyon up the standings.
Lacazette has been Sage’s entrusted goalscorer, notching 10 Ligue goals in as many games Across this spell, the former Arsenal striker has also contributed 66% of all Lyon’s goals in the league, taking his count to 13 for the season.
The 32-year-old is likely to find more scoring joy late in the season as Les Gones target a possible late charge for Europe. Yet, top goalscorer odds of 29/1 show that the French forward is expected to finish behind Mbappe and David in the goalscorer standings.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Lacazette’s former Arsenal teammate Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has also found some strong Ligue 1 scoring form for top-six chasing Marseille.
Aubameyang initially struggled for consistency early in the Ligue 1 campaign and only scored his first league goal in October. Since then, the Gabon striker has scored in patches, rather than hitting the net steadily throughout the campaign.
A run of four goals in three games came first in December before Aubameyang’s most recent scoring streak. In his last four league matches, Aubameyang has scored five goals, including braces in wins against Montpellier and Nantes.
Such form has moved Aubameyang onto 11 goals for the Ligue 1 season, but massive outsider odds of 89/1 mean the Marseille man is too far behind Mbappe’s 24 goals to seriously challenge for the Golden Boot.
