Igor Thiago to Nottingham Forest transfer chances: How likely is £70m Brentford move? Football Whispers Index score

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Igor Thiago to Nottingham Forest transfer chances: How likely is £70m Brentford move? Football Whispers Index score
Is Igor Thiago to Nottingham Forest for £70m possible? Photo by IconSport/SPI

Nottingham Forest have submitted a £70m bid to sign Brentford striker Igor Thiago, according to Rudy Galetti of TEAMtalk, with the Premier League window closing on 1 September.

The 25-year-old finished second only to Erling Haaland in the Premier League Golden Boot standings last season with 22 goals, attracting enquiries from Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham, Atletico Madrid and Juventus since the campaign ended.

Brentford extended his contract to June 2031 in February, publicly told multiple suitors they would not sell at any price this summer, and Thiago himself has been described as keen to stay – all before Forest's formal offer arrived.

The Football Whispers Index scores every transfer rumour across five weighted factors. Read how it works here.

Igor Thiago to Nottingham Forest rated ‘Unlikely'

Igor Thiago to Nottingham Forest — Football Whispers Index
Football Whispers Index: Transfer predictor

Igor Thiago to Nottingham Forest

Unlikely
Brentford stated they would not sell before a formal £70m bid arrived below their £80m floor, from a Forest side already at the upper limit of Premier League spending rules.
Updated
Financial viability8 / 25
Buying club need17 / 20
Player motivation7 / 15
Selling club incentive6 / 20
Market momentum10 / 20
Financial viability8 / 25
  • At £70m, Forest's bid accounts for more than a third of the club's annual football revenue.
  • Morgan Gibbs-White is the highest earner at the City Ground at £110,000 per week in the 2026/27 season.
  • Forest carry the same High Squad Cost Ratio risk status as Aston Villa and Chelsea in the current Premier League.
  • Thiago's contract at Brentford runs until 30 June 2031, with Brentford also holding a further one-year club option.
Buying club need17 / 20
  • Igor Jesus scored six Premier League goals in 28 starts for Nottingham Forest in 2025/26, a rate of 0.23 per 90 minutes.
  • In the same season, Thiago scored 22 Premier League goals from 37 starts at Brentford, finishing second only to Erling Haaland in the Golden Boot standings.
  • Thiago registered in the 92nd percentile for goals and the 78th percentile for aerial duels won among Premier League forwards last season.
  • Chris Wood, Forest's other senior striker, turns 35 in December 2026 and has one year remaining on his contract.
Player motivation7 / 15
  • Opta's global Power Rankings rate Brentford at 91.3 and Nottingham Forest at 91.1, placing the two clubs within two tenths of a point of each other.
  • Thiago started 37 of Brentford's 38 Premier League matches in 2025/26 and would be Forest's undisputed first choice too.
  • Thiago signed a new contract at Brentford in February 2026 and has since been described as keen to remain at the Gtech Community Stadium.
  • Thiago earns £75,000 per week at Brentford, matching Mikkel Damsgaard as the club's joint-highest earner in 2026/27.
Selling club incentive6 / 20
  • Brentford communicated to Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham that Thiago was not available at any price this summer before Forest's formal approach arrived.
  • His contract was extended to June 2031 in February 2026, less than six months before Forest's £70m bid landed.
  • Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa both left Brentford before the current window opened, but no striker replacement has been publicly identified for Thiago.
Market momentum10 / 20
  • Rudy Galetti reported on 23 August that Nottingham Forest had submitted a formal £70m offer to Brentford for Thiago.
  • No response from Brentford to Forest's specific bid has been reported, against the backdrop of a public refusal to entertain offers that predates it.
The verdict41 / 100
The score sits in the Unlikely band because Forest's £70m bid arrives more than £10m short of Brentford's known floor, from a club already at the upper edge of Premier League spending rules, for a player who extended his contract in February and has been publicly described as keen to stay.
The deal moves forward if Forest raise their offer to meet Brentford's £80m-plus valuation and Thiago changes his position before the window closes on 1 September 2026.
It dies if Brentford formally reject this bid, if Forest turn to Liam Delap as the more attainable option, or if the nine days remaining are not enough to close a gap that has already stopped Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham in their tracks.

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