Rafael Leao to Tottenham: How likely is £42m AC Milan transfer? Football Whispers Index score

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Rafael Leao to Tottenham: How likely is £42m AC Milan transfer? Football Whispers Index score
Rafael Leao to Tottenham - Photo by Iconsport/LiveMedia/SPI

Rafael Leao to Tottenham Hotspur has suddenly gained traction again, in spite of the Lilywhites only just confirming the £75m signing of Savinho from Manchester City on Tuesday morning.

The AC Milan attacker's long-term future has been under the spotlight for many years, and a Premier League move has long been mooted, but previous links with the likes of Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea have gone nowhere.

However, Tottenham, Galatasaray and Aston Villa are all believed to possess real chances to sign Leao before the transfer window slams shut in just a few days' time, and here, the Football Whispers Index assesses how likely Spurs are to win the race.

The Football Whispers Index scores every transfer rumour across five weighted factors. Read how it works here.

Rafael Leao to Tottenham rated ‘Likely'

Rafael Leao to Tottenham – Football Whispers Index
Football Whispers Index: Transfer predictor

Rafael Leao to Tottenham

Likely
Wilson Odobert and Xavi Simons are still working back from ACL surgery and Mikey Moore is closing in on a loan to Koln, leaving Tottenham with a genuine gap Rafael Leao could fill if AC Milan's £42m-plus valuation is met.
Updated
Financial viability20 / 25
Buying club need15 / 20
Player motivation8 / 15
Selling club incentive14 / 20
Market momentum12 / 20
Financial viability20 / 25
  • AC Milan are seeking an initial fee of £42m, rising to £51m with add-ons, for the 27-year-old forward.
  • Leao has two years left on his Milan contract, which runs until 30 June 2028.
  • Tottenham posted revenue of €672.6m in the latest Deloitte Money League, giving them room to absorb a fee in Milan's range.
  • Milan have so far turned away interest from clubs unable to match their valuation.
Buying club need15 / 20
  • Tottenham completed the signing of Savinho from Manchester City this summer to fill the left-wing role Leao would occupy.
  • Wilson Odobert and Xavi Simons are both still working back from separate ACL ruptures suffered earlier in 2026.
  • Mikey Moore is closing in on a season-long loan to Bundesliga side Koln, according to Sky Germany and Fabrizio Romano.
  • Leao scored nine goals and added three assists in 1,859 Serie A minutes last season.
Player motivation8 / 15
  • Leao said in June that he dreams of a new challenge in a new league after seven years at Milan.
  • Fabrizio Romano reported in July that Tottenham had turned down the chance to sign Leao in favour of pursuing Savinho.
  • Milan News reported on 25 August that Tottenham are one of three clubs Milan are in talks with, alongside Aston Villa and Galatasaray.
  • No wage terms between Leao and Tottenham have been reported.
Selling club incentive14 / 20
  • Milan have been linked with Young Boys midfielder Alvyn Sanches and Manchester City's Jack Grealish for the same attacking areas this week.
  • Leao is reported to have no long-term future at San Siro under new head coach Ruben Amorim.
  • Gazzetta dello Sport wrote on 25 August that Leao's market appeal has diminished compared with previous seasons.
  • A thigh injury sustained on 22 August is expected to keep Leao out until early September.
Market momentum12 / 20
  • Gazzetta dello Sport reported on 25 August that Aston Villa's interest has cooled sharply over Milan's valuation and Leao's own wage demands.
  • Galatasaray are described by both Gazzetta dello Sport and TEAMtalk as the only suitor currently able to meet Leao's financial terms.
  • Gazzetta dello Sport reported that Leao has been offered to Tottenham by agent Jorge Mendes, while questioning whether that path is genuinely viable.
  • UK bookmakers cut their odds on Tottenham being Leao's next club to as short as 4/1 on 25 August.
The verdict65 / 100
Tottenham's wide-attacking options have thinned out fast, with Odobert and Simons both still recovering from ACL surgery and Moore closing in on a loan exit, which is what pushes this into Likely territory.
It happens if Milan accept a fee close to their valuation and Tottenham decide Leao solves a genuine gap rather than adding to a crowded position.
It dies if Galatasaray move first, or if Odobert and Simons return to full training before deadline day and ease the pressure on Tottenham's front line.

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