Rafael Leao to Tottenham: How likely is £42m AC Milan transfer? Football Whispers Index score

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Rafael Leao to Tottenham: How likely is £42m AC Milan transfer? Football Whispers Index score
Rafael Leao to Tottenham - Photo by Iconsport/LiveMedia/SPI

Rafael Leao to Tottenham Hotspur has suddenly gained traction again, in spite of the Lilywhites only just confirming the £75m signing of Savinho from Manchester City on Tuesday morning.

The AC Milan attacker's long-term future has been under the spotlight for many years, and a Premier League move has long been mooted, but previous links with the likes of Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea have gone nowhere.

However, Tottenham, Galatasaray and Aston Villa are all believed to possess real chances to sign Leao before the transfer window slams shut in just a few days' time, and here, the Football Whispers Index assesses how likely Spurs are to win the race.

The Football Whispers Index scores every transfer rumour across five weighted factors. Read how it works here.

Rafael Leao to Tottenham rated ‘Possible'

Rafael Leao to Tottenham – Football Whispers Index
Football Whispers Index: Transfer predictor

Rafael Leao to Tottenham

Possible
AC Milan have accepted a €45m bid from Galatasaray and Aston Villa are in direct talks through Unai Emery, leaving Tottenham without a bid on the table as deadline day approaches.
Updated
Financial viability20 / 25
Buying club need15 / 20
Player motivation7 / 15
Selling club incentive17 / 20
Market momentum0 / 20
Financial viability20 / 25
  • AC Milan are seeking an initial fee of £42m, rising to £51m with add-ons, for the 27-year-old forward.
  • Leao has two years left on his Milan contract, which runs until 30 June 2028.
  • Tottenham posted revenue of €672.6m in the latest Deloitte Money League, giving them room to absorb a fee in Milan's range.
  • Milan have so far turned away interest from clubs unable to match their valuation.
Buying club need15 / 20
  • Tottenham completed the signing of Savinho from Manchester City this summer to fill the left-wing role Leao would occupy.
  • Wilson Odobert and Xavi Simons are both still working back from separate ACL ruptures suffered earlier in 2026.
  • Mikey Moore is closing in on a season-long loan to Bundesliga side Koln, according to Sky Germany and Fabrizio Romano.
  • Leao scored nine goals and added three assists in 1,859 Serie A minutes last season.
Player motivation7 / 15
  • Leao said in June that he dreams of a new challenge in a new league after seven years at Milan.
  • AC Milan have accepted a €45m bid from Galatasaray, with Leao now deciding whether to accept personal terms there.
  • Aston Villa manager Unai Emery has held direct talks with Leao to lay out his plans for the forward.
  • No wage terms between Leao and Tottenham have been reported.
Selling club incentive17 / 20
  • AC Milan have accepted a €45m offer from Galatasaray for the 27-year-old forward.
  • Leao is reported to have no long-term future at San Siro under new head coach Ruben Amorim.
  • Gazzetta dello Sport wrote on 25 August that Leao's market appeal has diminished compared with previous seasons.
  • Milan want a permanent sale this summer rather than a loan arrangement, according to The Athletic.
Market momentum0 / 20
  • Sky Sports, The Athletic and Football365 all reported Milan's Leao decision on 27 August as a straight fight between Aston Villa and Galatasaray.
  • The Athletic's David Ornstein reported Milan have accepted a €45m offer from Galatasaray.
  • Aston Villa boss Unai Emery has personally spoken with Leao to set out the club's plans for him.
  • UK bookmakers cut their odds on Tottenham being Leao's next club to as short as 4/1 on 25 August, before the Villa and Galatasaray news broke.
The verdict50 / 100
AC Milan have accepted a bid from Galatasaray and Aston Villa are working directly with Leao himself, which leaves Tottenham without a bid of their own as the clock runs down.
It happens only if both the Villa and Galatasaray moves collapse and Tottenham move fast enough to get a bid in before deadline day.
It dies the moment either Villa or Galatasaray get Leao's signature, which could happen within days.

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