Euro 2024 Group D fixtures & predictions: Kylian killer instinct set to dominate

Group D promises to be one of the most entertaining of Euro 2024, and could well produce a surprise or two due to the strength of all four teams involved.

France are, of course, one of the tournament favourites, with Kylian Mbappe the runaway hot pick to claim this competition's golden boot, just 18 months after finishing as the 2022 World Cup's top gun. Meanwhile, the Netherlands are always predicted to go far in international competitions, and both Austria and Poland can cause any team problems on their day.

Mbappe is clear favourite to be the Euro 2024 player of the tournament
Mbappe is a clear favourite to be the Euro 2024 player of the tournament – Photo by Icon Sport

Euro 2024 Group D winners prediction & group forecast

Group Winners – France

After England, France are second-favourites overall to win, and thus claim the European Championship for a third time. Runners-up in the 2022 World Cup only via a defeat on penalties to Argentina, France certainly have the calibre to demolish each of their three competitors in Group D.

We're expecting the likes of Aurélien Tchouaméni and Eduardo Camavinga to shine in midfield, with Benjamin Pavard and Dayot Upamecano providing a solid base at the back. And in attack, the experience of Olivier Giroud and Antoine Griezmann compliments the world-class ability of Mbappe.

Georginio Wijnaldum of the Netherlands celebrates a friendly goal – Photo by Icon Sport

Runners Up – Netherlands

The 1988 European Championship winners are our pick to finish as runners-up behind France in Group D. With plenty of tournament experience in their squad, the Netherlands certainly possess the ability to go far at Euro 2024. However, many of these players have failed to produce the goods on the big stage before, and this will be the last chance of international glory for several of them.

Virgil van Dijk, Daley Blind, Stefan de Vrij, Georginio Wijnaldum, Marten de Roon, Wout Weghorst and Memphis Depay are all in their 30s, but still have plenty to offer at this level. However, their younger players also bear a burden of expectation – especially Liverpool duo Cody Gakpo and Ryan Gravenberch, alongside talents such as Xavi Simons and Matthijs de Ligt.

Austria vs Turkey prediction
Christoph Baumgartner looks disappointed whilst in action for Austria – Photo by Icon Sport

Third Place – Austria

Austria have never won a major international trophy, and we're not expecting that to change at Euro 2024. But we have backed Ralf Rangnick's side to avoid certain elimination at Poland's expense. Given the difficulty of the group, ‘Das Team' aren't expected to emulate the second-place route to the knockouts they earned three years ago, during which they lost 2-0 to the Netherlands on German soil.

Michael Gregoritsch provides his country's main goal threat, while Konrad Laimer, Christoph Baumgartner and Marcel Sabitzer offer quality and experience in midfield.

wales vs poland predictions
Will this be Robert Lewandowski's final major tournament for Poland? – Photo by Icon Sport

Eliminated – Poland

Poland put in a poor performance at Euro 2020, finishing bottom in a group that consisted of Spain, Sweden and Slovakia, but improved at the 2022 World Cup where they finished second behind Argentina, only to be knocked out by France in the next round.

This Poland squad is full of experience, with Robert Lewandowski, Kamil Grosicki and Wojciech Szczęsny all in their mid-30s. All three are likely to be playing in their final European Championship.

Elsewhere on the field, Karol Świderski, Jakub Moder and Piotr Zieliński are all very good players, but we're not sure that this Poland side will be able to avoid an early elimination.

Group D Winners – Potential Round of 16 opponents

If France do take the top spot in Group D as expected, they will go up against the runners up of Group F. A clash against Portugal – a repeat of the Euro 2016 final – is possible, though it will far likelier be Czechia or Turkey lying in wait for Les Bleus.


A lifelong Evertonian, James started writing for an Everton fan site in the mid-2000s and then developed his own blog covering football transfers from across Europe's big leagues before becoming a regular match preview and betting tips writer for Biggest Free Bets. James moved to Free Super Tips next, and then Racing Post, where he worked as a full-time writer for a few years, taking on extra responsibilities such as creating the schedule and assigning out work. Following that, James wrote for a number of websites including Fore Bet before joining Football Whispers in December 2020.