Group D promises to be one of the most entertaining of Euro 2024, and could well produce a surprise or two due to the strength of all four teams involved.
France are, of course, one of the tournament favourites, with Kylian Mbappe the runaway hot pick to claim this competition's golden boot, just 18 months after finishing as the 2022 World Cup's top gun. Meanwhile, the Netherlands are always predicted to go far in international competitions, and both Austria and Poland can cause any team problems on their day.
Euro 2024 Group D winners prediction & group forecast
Group Winners – France
After England, France are second-favourites overall to win, thus claiming the European Championship for a third time. Runners-up in the 2022 World Cup only via a defeat on penalties to Argentina, France certainly have the calibre to demolish each of their three competitors in Group D.
We're expecting the likes of Aurélien Tchouaméni and Eduardo Camavinga to shine in midfield, with Benjamin Pavard and Dayot Upamecano providing a solid base at the back. In attack, the experiences of Olivier Giroud and Antoine Griezmann complement Mbappe's world-class ability.
Runners Up – Netherlands
The 1988 European Championship winners are our pick to finish as runners-up behind France in Group D. With plenty of tournament experience in their squad, the Netherlands certainly possess the ability to go far at Euro 2024. However, many of these players have failed to produce the goods on the big stage before, and this will be the last chance of international glory for several of them.
Virgil van Dijk, Daley Blind, Stefan de Vrij, Georginio Wijnaldum, Marten de Roon, Wout Weghorst and Memphis Depay are all in their 30s, but still have plenty to offer at this level. However, their younger players also bear a burden of expectation – especially Liverpool duo Cody Gakpo and Ryan Gravenberch, alongside talents such as Xavi Simons and Matthijs de Ligt.
Third Place – Austria
Austria have never won a major international trophy, and we're not expecting that to change at Euro 2024. But we have backed Ralf Rangnick's side to avoid certain elimination at Poland's expense. Given the group's difficulty, ‘Das Team' aren't expected to emulate the second-place route to the knockouts they earned three years ago, during which they lost 2-0 to the Netherlands on German soil.
Michael Gregoritsch provides his country's main goal threat, while Konrad Laimer, Christoph Baumgartner and Marcel Sabitzer offer quality and experience in midfield.
Eliminated – Poland
Poland performed poorly at Euro 2020, finishing bottom in a group that included Spain, Sweden, and Slovakia. However, they improved at the 2022 World Cup, finishing second behind Argentina, only to be knocked out by France in the next round.
This Poland squad is full of experience, with Robert Lewandowski, Kamil Grosicki and Wojciech Szczęsny all in their mid-30s. All three are likely to be playing in their final European Championship.
Elsewhere on the field, Karol Świderski, Jakub Moder and Piotr Zieliński are all very good players, but we're not sure that this Poland side will be able to avoid an early elimination.
Group D Winners – Potential Round of 16 opponents
If France does take the top spot in Group D as expected, they will face the runners-up of Group F. A clash against Portugal—a repeat of the Euro 2016 final—is possible, though it will far likelier be Czechia or Turkey lying in wait for Les Bleus.
