England first goalscorer odds and prediction: Rotation vs Malta could spring surprise

England welcome Malta to Wembley on Friday night in their penultimate qualifying match for EURO 2024. Given the disparity in quality between the two nations, we can expect to see Gareth Southgate rotate his side and give a few newer players a chance.

With England so heavily fancied, there are no shortage of debates surrounding the latest England first goalscorer odds. Though all will be desperate to get in on the goalscoring act, there are absolutely no surprises as to who the favourite to open the scoring against Malta is…

England first goalscorer odds and prediction – our picks

Harry Kane (2/1)

The Bayern striker recently became England’s all-time top scorer with 61 goals, and has been in fine form of late in a Three Lions shirt. He made the difference against England’s main qualification rivals, Italy, in his last appearance, with a brace to secure a 3-1 win. In his prior appearance, he scored in another 3-1 friendly win over old rivals Scotland.

Meanwhile, Kane has also been in scintillating form at club level since moving from Tottenham Hotspur to the Bavarian giants. In 15 starts, he has scored 21 goals and notched a further seven assists, firmly leaving memories of a Super Cup humiliation to Leipzig – which elongated his infamous wait for a major trophy – in the dust.

Kane is the clear favourite to score the opener if he starts. The only factor against Kane is that Gareth Southgate may rest his captain, ahead of a trickier away trip to North Macedonia on Monday, and give someone else a chance to lead the line…

Ollie Watkins (11/4)

If Kane is to watch from the sidelines, Aston Villa’s speedy striker, Ollie Watkins is the favourite to lead the line for England, and consequently the bookies’ top pick to score at any time. The 27-year-old has started the season on a hot streak at Villa Park, with six goals and five assists in 12 Premier League starts. 

Southgate trusted Watkins to deputise for Kane against Australia in October’s round of games, and was not let down, as Watkins scored the only goal of the game, after being set up by former Villa teammate Jack Grealish.

The former Brentford man has a formidable record in an England shirt, as in just 214 minutes on the pitch, he has notched three goals.

Marcus Rashford (9/2)

Many questioned the inclusion of Rashford in the England setup for this international break, as the Manchester United man has suffered a nightmarish start to the season at Old Trafford. The forward has just one Premier League goal this season, and recently got a straight red card in the Red Devils’ embarrassing 4-3 defeat against Copenhagen.

Gareth Southgate has, however, stayed loyal to one of his star performers. Memorably, Rashford scored a superb counter attacking goal against Italy last month, which has likely saved his place in the squad.

And regardless of club-level misfortunes, he has been one of England’s most reliable goalscorers for almost a decade, with 17 international goals (at a rate of 0.59 per 90 minutes) since making his debut in 2016 putting him second behind Kane. He will play a key part in England's closing duo of qualifiers.

Jarrod Bowen (9/2)

West Ham playmaker Bowen has the same odds to score as Rashford, but comes into this one in a very different mood. The 26-year-old has been red-hot this season, and has scored eight goals in 12 Premier League games this season, only behind Erling Haaland and Mo Salah in the scoring charts, despite the Hammers sitting firmly in mid-table.

Bukayo Saka is England’s first choice on the right wing, but he may be rested alongside Kane for the tougher fixture against North Macedonia, giving Bowen a chance to shine.

The Irons' MVP has not yet translated his league form into goals on the international stage yet in his limited appearances. He is goalless across his first five caps, but it seems only a matter of time before that changes. Malta represent the perfect opportunity for Bowen to kick on in an England shirt, and he will be desperate to prove his worth to Gareth Southgate.

See also: Why Kane could also be the LAST goalscorer in his next outing.