With Manchester City, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and PSG into the Champions League quarter finals, this week’s last 16 competitors have just four places to compete for.
After 1-0 away losses, Arsenal and Atletico Madrid need to take and maintain two goal leads at home to FC Porto and Inter Milan respectively. Barcelona vs Napoli and Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven are neck-a-neck, after 1-1 draws.
Champions League 2up and win predictions: our picks
Arsenal vs FC Porto
Arsenal have had a near-flawless 2024 so far. The Gunners have been a juggernaut in the Premier League. They have scored 31 goals and conceded just three in seven games.
But three weeks ago in Porto, they struggled. Arteta’s side huffed and puffed, had most of the possession and limited Porto to few opportunities, but had zero shots on target and were beaten by a stunning strike from Galeno in the dying embers of the game.
Porto frustrated Arsenal in a way few have been able to for a long time. They did this with a mid-block that denied Arsenal any space in the middle of the pitch. Sergio Conceicao’s team were scrappy and ran down the clock, preventing Arsenal from getting any kind of rhythm. They will be even tougher to crack with a one goal lead.
Arsenal, after seven years out of the Champions League, will be desperate not to fall at the first knockout hurdle. But to avoid that fate they must score two.
In the Gunners’ favour, they have developed a knack of settling scores in front of their home fans.
After a controversial loss at Newcastle in November, the Gunners thrashed the Magpies 4-1. When Liverpool knocked them out of the FA Cup, Arsenal totally dominated the Reds a few weeks later. They even defeated their long-term tormenters, Manchester City, at Emirates Stadium in October.
It won’t be easy, but we back Arsenal to come back in this one and take inspiration from some of their previous iconic Champions league goals.
Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven
Many casual watchers, unfamiliar with Dutch football may have understandably presumed that Borussia Dortmund would cruise through this tie, but Peter Bosz’s PSV have been one of Europe’s form sides this season, have only lost once in the Champions League, and were unfortunate to draw 1-1 at home in the reverse fixture.
But travelling to Borussia Dortmund’s infamous cauldron of noise, Signal Iduna Park, is another kettle of fish.
The stadium, home to the cacophonous ‘Yellow Wall’ is a notoriously hard place to go, and has been the scene of some remarkable Dortmund wins, such as their famous 4-0 win over Real Madrid in 2013.
PSV’s only defeat in Europe this season was 4-0 away to Arsenal, who, like Dortmund, had a qualitative advantage over the Dutch side and a stadium full of energy and excitement at being back in the Champions League.
Bosz's team will put up a fight, but with an early goal, Dortmund could expose them the same way the Gunners did.
Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan
Atletico Madrid have been like Dr Jekyll at home this season, and Mr Hyde on the road.
At the Estadio Metropolitano, they have won 16/17 La Liga and Champions League matches, with only one draw, the best record of any side in the top five European leagues.
But away, things are less positive, they have only won 5/17 La Liga and Champions League matches, as shown in their away defeat to Inter three weeks ago. Inter dominated that game, besting Atleti on expected goals 2.30 – 0.61. The positive for Los Colchoneros is that the game only finished 1-0, keeping them in the tie.
They now have the chance to play in front of their notoriously vociferous home supporters and leverage their remarkable home form this season.
But their opponents are arguably Europe’s hottest team. Inter are 15 points ahead in Serie A and have only lost two games all season, both of which actually came at the San Siro rather than on the road.
It is an incredibly tough challenge, but if Atleti want to advance, they simply must take a two goal lead.
