Brighton vs Brentford: Why you should back Igor Thiago’s 7/5 odds to score against the Seagulls

Brighton host Brentford at the Amex on Sunday in the English Premier League, with the Seagulls having five clean sheets in their last six league games.

Fabian Hurzeler’s side have been incredible at both ends of the pitch, scoring 24 and conceding just seven, having defeated Manchester City 1-0 in their last league game.

Meanwhile, Brentford have drawn all four of their away league games this season, and their main man, Igor Thiago, despite not being at his best, is the Bees’ second top scorer this season.

With both teams facing each other this weekend, we expect Brighton to concede, and we tip Igor Thiago to get on the scoresheet.

Here, FootballWhispers explains why Thiago is still worth backing to score at 7/5, despite the tough task.

Brighton vs Brentford: Why Igor Thiago can score against the Seagulls

Thiago’s numbers look poor on the surface, but they do not tell the whole story of his performance this campaign. 

Last season he scored 22 goals, the most by a Brazilian in a single Premier League campaign.

He has started all nine league games this campaign, with two goals and two assists to show for it, and he is the second top scorer for the Bees. 

He has taken 20 in nine starts, about 2.2 a game, which is close to last season’s rate of 2.4 (76 shots in 32 starts up to mid-April). 

What has changed is his accuracy. Only five of those 20 shots have been on target, or 25%, compared with 51% last season (39 of 76).

He has five goal involvements in his last six games in all competitions, three goals and two assists, including a second-half finish against Nottingham Forest last Saturday.

Brighton vs Brentford: How Igor Thiago can hurt Brighton

Brighton’s strength is also what creates the opening for them in games. They press high, keep the ball and deprive opponents of getting at their defence. 

That leaves space behind their full-backs, and Brentford have the pace to use it through Kevin Schade and Dango Ouattara.

The goal against Forest showed how quickly the Bees can break. Aaron Hickey played in Jaidon Anthony, who squared it for Thiago to finish. 

Brentford have scored in every league game this season, and they could continue their scoring form against Brighton.

Thiago has also scored against Brighton before, having converted an early penalty in the 2-1 defeat at the Amex last November, though he missed a second late on. 

In February’s 2-0 defeat at Brentford, he had two decent chances, a shot off target and a header wide, but nothing on target.

Brighton vs Brentford best bet

Igor Thiago to score anytime – 7/5 (2.40)

The odds given to Igor Thiago to score against Brighton imply roughly a 42% chance of scoring. 

Against a team with the joint most clean sheets in the league, it is not going to be an easy task for the Brazilian.

However, Thiago starts every week, still takes more than two shots a game, and has finishing to recover. 

Brentford should get at least one good counter-attacking chance, and he is the player most likely to get the goal.