Primeira Liga matchday 13 opens with one of Portuguese football’s fiercest rivalries as Benfica welcome Sporting Lisbon to Estadio da Luz for the latest instalment of Derby de Lisboa.
Just one place and three points separate both sides, with the Eagles sitting third on 28 points, while the Lions are directly above them, three points behind leaders Porto.
Our Benfica vs Sporting Lisbon prediction offers insight, while the rest of our Primeira Liga tips remain available to check.
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Benfica vs Sporting Lisbon prediction: Fierce encounter anticipated
Key stats:
- Seven of the last eight head-to-head meetings between both sides have seen over 4.5 cards.
- Sporting are unbeaten in their last 16 away league games (W11, D5).
- Benfica have drawn half of their six home matches in the top flight this season.
- The Eagles are unbeaten in their last 27 league fixtures (D7).
Correct score prediction: Benfica 1-1 Sporting
Both teams arrive in excellent rhythm, with Benfica winning each of their last three matches, while Sporting have recorded victories in four consecutive games, so this matchup looks finely balanced.
While victory is vital for the two sides, neither side will want to lose ground in the title race, so caution is likely, with both wary of slipping up.
A score draw appears the most feasible outcome, especially with three of the last four league meetings at Da Luz ending level.
Pre-match analysis: Odds suggest tight affair
- HOME: 17/10 (2.70) – 37.0%
- DRAW: 23/10 (3.30) – 30.3%
- AWAY: 6/4 (2.50) – 40.0%
*Odds courtesy of Ladbrokes; subject to change*
The above odds show there is not much separating the two sides, with Sporting holding a slight edge at 40.0%, while Benfica trail marginally at 37.0%. A 30.3% draw probability further underlines how close this derby could be.
Our hot tip – both teams to score & under 4.5 goals – offers solid value at 2.25 odds, especially given how recent head-to-head games at Da Luz have panned out.
Most recent head-to-head: Did the Reds get their revenge?
Both sides last met in July in the Super Cup, where Benfica recorded a 1-0 victory, ending a six-match winless run against Sporting (L4, D1), with the only respite during that sequence coming via a penalty triumph in last season’s Taca da Liga final.
Meanwhile, their most recent league meeting was a 1-1 draw at Da Luz in the penultimate round of the 2024-25 season, a result that ultimately helped Sporting clinch the title.
Portugal Super Cup 31/07/25
Sporting
Benfica
Portugal Cup 25/05/25
Benfica
Sporting
Portugal Primeira Liga 10/05/25
Benfica
Sporting
Portugal League Cup 11/01/25
Sporting
Benfica
Portugal Primeira Liga 29/12/24
Sporting
Benfica
Benfica preview: Midfield engine returns
Benfica remain without Alexander Bah (cruciate ligament), Bruma (Achilles), Dodi Lukebakio (ankle) and Henrique Araujo (muscle).
However, Richard Ríos returns after suspension and is expected to slot back into the double pivot alongside Enzo Barrenechea.
Predicted XI: Trubin (GK), Dahl, Otamendi, A. Silva, Dedic, Rios, Barrenechea, Aursnes, Sudakov, Schjelderup & Pavlidis
Benfica’s last five results
- 29/11/25: Nacional 1-2 Benfica (W)
- 25/11/25: Ajax 0-2 Benfica (W)
- 21/11/25: Atletico CP 0-2 Benfica (W)
- 09/11/25: Benfica 2-2 Casa Pia (D)
- 05/11/25: Benfica 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen (L)
Sporting preview: Key winger returns to bolster attack
Sporting remain without Fotis Ioannidis, Zeno Debast, Nuno Santos and Daniel Braganca as the quartet work their way back from injury.
Meanwhile, Geny Catamo, Ivan Fresneda and Goncalo Inacio picked up knocks last time out, but reports suggest all three should be available on Friday.
A further boost comes with Pedro Goncalves’s (Pote) return from injury; after a substitute appearance in the previous game, the winger is expected to reclaim his spot on the left flank.
Predicted XI: Silva (GK), Araujo, Inacio, Quaresma, Fresneda, Morita, Hjulmand, Catamo, Trincao, Goncalves & Suarez
Sporting’s last five results
- 30/11/25: Sporting 4-0 Estrela Amadora (W)
- 26/11/25: Sporting 3-0 Club Brugge (W)
- 22/11/25: Sporting 3-0 Marinhense (W)
- 08/11/25: Santa Clara 1-2 Sporting (W)
- 04/11/25: Juventus 1-1 Sporting (D)
Player to watch: Vangelis Pavlidis
Vangelis Pavlidis leads this season’s Golden Boot race with 10 goals, six of them coming across his last three home appearances.
The Greek striker also netted the decider the last time Benfica faced Sporting and will be confident of extending that streak on Friday.