Arsenal vs Newcastle: Why goals WON’T be the order of the day on Saturday

Arsenal will welcome Newcastle United to the Emirates Stadium on Saturday evening as they look to return to the top of the Premier League table.

Following Manchester City's 1-0 win over Burnley on Wednesday night, the only thing separating the league's top two is goals scored, which sets us up for a potentially thrilling end to the season.

While Arsenal start the match as firm favourites (4/9 with multiple bookmakers), the temptation to add a handicap to the Gunners should be resisted. Why? Well, we're about to tell you.

Will Arsenal put Newcastle to the sword?

Beyond all the talk about Arsenal's lack of firepower in the final third and their over-reliance on set pieces and defensive stability, the main reason why you should avoid an Arsenal handicap this weekend is all to do with their opponents, Newcastle.

Each of the Magpies' last nine Premier League fixtures have been settled by one goal – three in their favour and six against them. Only three times in the history of the top division in England has a team played 10 consecutive matches settled by a solitary goal – Everton in the 1910s, West Ham in the 1960s and Southampton in the 1990s.

So, instead of backing Arsenal to win by a landslide, just because they ought to, back the Gunners to win by a margin of one goal at 3/1 with Bet365 and/or Newcastle to win by a margin of one goal at 7/1 with Bet365.

What's more, each of the last three and four of the last five meetings between Arsenal and Newcastle have resulted in victories by a margin of just one goal.

Could Arsenal surprise us?

If you're an Arsenal supporter, you are likely praying for a sudden change in system and an open, attacking setup that will breed goals. After all, a four or five-nil thumping on Saturday would put the Gunners back in control of the title race.

Unfortunately for those fans, the data suggests we are likely to see more of the same from Mikel Arteta's men. Arsenal have failed to score more than one goal in each of their six matches, a run that started at Wembley Stadium in the Carabao Cup final.

In better news, Newcastle have failed to score in each of their last nine visits to the Premier League. If you look at all of the data we've discussed, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 Arsenal victory, which is priced at 17/2 by Bet365.