World Cup Group H permutations: What do Spain, Uruguay need to qualify?

From the outset, Group H in this World Cup looked like an easy group for both Spain and Uruguay. But opening draws for both against Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia respectively have blown open chances for all four teams going into the final round.

The qualification odds are completely open – Group H will be decided only on the final day of group fixtures. None of the four qualified or were eliminated after the second round.

Here, we run through the permutations for each nation to qualify for the World Cup last 32, as all four prepare for their final group games matches on Saturday, 27 June.

What Spain need to qualify for the World Cup knockout stages

The 2026 World Cup has already earned its reputation as a tournament of shocks, but it was arguably Spain who endured the biggest of them all.

La Roja entered the tournament as title favourites, ahead of France. However, their odds of winning Group H took a heavy blow as tournament debutants Cape Verde stunned them with a goalless draw. They followed up with an impressive 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia in the second round – scoring at the World Cup for the first time since their final group game in Qatar 2022.

They have a history of making poor World Cup starts. The first result perhaps reminded them of their opening day defeat in 2010 against Switzerland, after which they went on to win their one and only world title.

Spain meet two-time world champions Uruguay next in what will arguably be their toughest test so far. A win or a draw secures them top spot. A defeat, combined with a Cape Verde victory over Saudi Arabia, will see them finish third.

What Uruguay need to qualify for the World Cup knockout stages

While Uruguay’s golden generation is behind them, they entered World Cup hoping to emulate their past successes under the iconic Marcelo Bielsa. La Celeste opened their 2026 account with 1-1 draw against Saudi Arabia – their fifth draw in nine World Cup openers.

Despite dominating possession, Uruguay went behind before the break from Abdulelah Al-Amri’s tap-in. However, they deservedly equalised 10 minutes from full-time, when Maximiliano Araujo fired a low finish. It was Uruguay’s only strike from 22 second-half shots attempted – the most by any team at the World Cup since 1974.

Their second match was a bigger shock, as Cape Verde heroically pulled off another World Cup upset, coming from behind to secure a 2-2 draw after Helio Varela’s second-half equaliser.

The South Americans are tasked with upsetting top dogs Spain next in the decider if they are to finish top of Group H. A defeat or a draw, combined with either Saudi or Cape Verde winning their next match, will put their top two hopes in serious jeopardy.

What Saudi Arabia need to qualify for the World Cup knockout stages

Saudi Arabia pulled one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history when they beat reigning champions Argentina in the 2022 group stages. A victory so big that the following day was declared a public holiday in Saudi Arabia.

They were robbed of a similar result against Uruguay, who salvaged a late point after Maximiliano Araujo tapped in the equaliser from a tight angle. Spain then dominated Saudi completely, ultimately thrashing them 4-0 in a statement result.

Saudi Arabia have now failed to win their last four games at the World Cup. Their last longer winless streak was from July 1994 to June 2018, a run of 12 games.

The Falcons have the grit required to upset the best of teams. However, they have been poor at this tournament. They sit bottom of Group H, needing to beat Cape Verde in the final match. As it stands, they are in line for a sixth successive elimination from the group stages.

What Cape Verde need to qualify for the World Cup knockout stages

As one of the five lowest ranked teams in the tournament, Cape Verde earned a heroic point against reigning European champions Spain in their opener. The draw between the two sides, separated by 65 places in the world rankings, marked the biggest ever gap in a World Cup game that did not end in the higher-ranked side winning.

In what many thought would be a walk in the park for La Roja, an incredibly disciplined performance saw Cape Verde earn their first World Cup point in style. They committed just one foul throughout the match – the fewest on record since the 1966 World Cup. The Blue Sharks were saved by 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha, who single-handedly saved seven out of Spain 27 shots.

They were excellent against Uruguay as well. Kevin Lenini drew first blood with an exquisite low free-kick, before La Celeste pulled back two before half-time. Helio Varela drew the scores level at 2-2 on the hour mark to ensure Cape Verde extend their unbeaten run to two games.

A win in their final game against Saudi Arabia secures a historic knockout spot. A draw could do the same, potentially even if Uruguay lose to Spain. All they would want is to avoid defeat, with Saudi threatening to secure a third-placed finish.

Who will they face in the last 32?

In the round of 32, the winner from Group H will face the Group J (Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan) runner-up, while the runner-up will play the winner of Group J. The third-placed team will also qualify depending on their performance.