World Cup Group H permutations: What do Spain, Uruguay need to qualify?

From the outset, Group H looked like an easy group for both Spain and Uruguay at the World Cup. But opening draws for the giants against Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia respectively have blown open chances for all four teams going into the penultimate round.

The qualification odds are completely open – it is likely that Group H will be decided only on the final day of group fixtures. None of the four can qualify or be eliminated after the second round.

Here, we run through the permutations for each nation to qualify for the World Cup last 32, as all four prepare for their second matches on Sunday, 21 June.

What Spain need to qualify for the World Cup knockout stages

The 2026 edition has already earned its reputation as a tournament of shocks, but it was arguably Spain who endured the biggest of them all.

La Roja entered the tournament as title favourites, ahead of France. However, their odds of winning Group H have taken a huge hit after a tournament debutants Cape Verde stunned them with a goalless draw.

They have a history of making poor World Cup starts. The draw perhaps reminds them of their opening day defeat in 2010 against Switzerland, after which they went on to win their one and only world title. But the reigning European champions have failed to score at the World Cup since Alvaro Morata’s header against Japan in their final group game in Qatar.

Spain need to break that duck against Saudi Arabia, who beat Argentina in the group stages in 2022. Their toughest fixture perhaps is on the final day against two-time world champions Uruguay. They need to win both matches to top Group H.

What Uruguay need to qualify for the World Cup knockout stages

While Uruguay’s golden generation is behind them, they enter the World Cup hoping to emulate their past successes under the iconic Marcelo Bielsa. La Celeste opened their 2026 account with 1-1 draw against Saudi Arabia – their fifth draw in nine World Cup openers.

Despite dominating possession, Uruguay went behind before the break from Abdulelah Al-Amri’s tap-in. However, they deservedly equalised 10 minutes from full-time, when Maximiliano Araujo fired a low finish. It was Uruguay’s only strike from 22 second-half shots attempted – the most by any team at the World Cup since 1974.

The South Americans are tasked with beating underdogs Cape Verde next. They will be wary of the threat the Creoles possess, especially as they came close to defeating Spain late in their opening match.

A win is necessary for Uruguay to boost morale, before they take on La Roja in what is expected to be the group decider. They can finish anywhere in the group, depending on their next result.

What Saudi Arabia need to qualify for the World Cup knockout stages

Saudi Arabia pulled one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history when they beat reigning champions Argentina in the 2022 group stages. A victory so big that the following day was declared a public holiday in Saudi Arabia.

They were robbed of a similar result against Uruguay, who salvaged a late point. Abdulelah Al-Amri pounced on a Fernando Muslera save in the 41st minute to give the Falcons a first-half lead. Uruguay eventually broke through the Saudi backline, with Maximiliano Araujo scoring a similar tap-in from a tight angle. Both goals were rebounds, a result of goalkeeping saves.

Saudi Arabia have now failed to win their last three games at the World Cup. Their last longer winless streak was from July 1994 to June 2018, a run of 12 games.

The Falcons have the grit required to upset the best of teams, but they face Spain next. If they maintain a similar organised structure as they did against Uruguay, they can upset La Roja. Cape Verde await them in the final group match. All is for the taking for Saudi Arabia.

What Cape Verde need to qualify for the World Cup knockout stages

As one of the five lowest ranked teams in the tournament, Cape Verde earned a heroic point against reigning European champions Spain in their opener. The two sides are separated by 65 places in the world rankings, marking the biggest ever gap in a World Cup game that did not end in the higher-ranked side winning.

In what many thought would be a walk in the park for La Roja, an incredibly disciplined performance saw Cape Verde earn their first World Cup point in style.

They committed just one foul throughout the match – the fewest on record since the 1966 World Cup. The Blue Sharks were saved by 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha, who single-handedly saved seven out of Spain's 27 shots.

They have all the chances to go through to the knockouts if they perform similarly against Uruguay next, followed by Saudi Arabia – both highly organised teams. Cape Verde need to channel their spirits once again over the next two rounds to pull off arguably the biggest World Cup surprise in recent history.

Who will they face in the last 32?

In the round of 32, the winner from Group H will face the Group J (Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan) runner-up, while the runner-up will play the winner of Group J.