World Cup Group G permutations: What do Belgium, Egypt need to qualify?

Everything is still to play for in Group G for Belgium and Egypt, with qualification for the World Cup knockouts still on the line in their last games.

Egypt are first with four points, Iran are second with two points, Belgium are third with two points and New Zealand are fourth with one point, and while only the top two will be guaranteed progression into the round of 32, eight-third placed teams will also advance.

Below, we run through the Group G permutations for each nation, as all four teams prepare for their final group fixtures of the 2026 World Cup on Saturday.

What Belgium need to qualify for the World Cup knockout stages

Belgium will qualify as group winners if they defeat New Zealand by at least three goals and Egypt draw with Iran.

Alternatively, if they beat New Zealand by a margin of two goals and Egypt draw with Iran, they can finish above Egypt on goals scored or fair play ranking. Should that be equal, then Belgium's higher placement in the FIFA World Cup rankings would see them finish first.

If Iran beat Egypt, Belgium will need to win against new Zealand and have higher goal difference, with the subsequent tie breakers being goals scored and fair play ranking.

The Red Devils will finish second and advance into the knockouts if they beat New Zealand and Egypt beat Iran, or if they win by a margin of one goal and Egypt draw with Iran.

Should Belgium beat New Zealand, they could finish behind the winner of Egypt's clash with Iran depending on the outcome of the various tiebreakers.

Alternatively, a draw would guarantee second if Egypt beat Iran, while Iran drawing with Egypt would mean that Belgium would once again have to rely on tiebreakers to finish second ahead of Iran.

What Egypt need to qualify for the World Cup knockout stages

Egypt will finish first as Group G winners under three circumstances, the first of which is if they win their final game against Iran.

If they draw with Iran and Belgium fail to beat New Zealand by a margin of at least three goals, Egypt will finish first, but a draw with Iran could be enough.

If Belgium beat New Zealand by a margin of two goals, a point would be good enough for Egypt to finish first if they score more goals, but if that number is equal, a better fair play ranking would then secure first.

The Pharaohs will finish second and qualify for the knockout phase as Group G runners-up if they draw with Iran and Belgium beat New Zealand by a margin of three or more goals, though a loss to Iran would still secure second if Belgium fail to win.

What Iran need to qualify for the World Cup knockout stages

Iran can finish first, but they have to beat Egypt and hope that Belgium fail to defeat New Zealand, though a Belgium win would then mean first place is decided by goal difference, then goals scored and then fair play ranking.

They can qualify for the knockouts by finishing second, a scenario that could occur if they drew with Egypt and if Belgium drew with New Zealand.

However, they would still have to score more goals than Belgium, or finish ahead of them in the fair play rankings.

What New Zealand need to qualify for the World Cup knockout stages

There is only one scenario that would make sure that New Zealand advance into the knockouts, and that is if they defeat Belgium and Iran fail to beat Egypt, with those results enough to guarantee second.