World Cup Group D permutations: What do USA, Australia need to qualify?

After the first two rounds of fixtures in Group D, World Cup 2026 co-hosts USA got off to a great start with wins over Paraguay and Australia to top the group.

Australia and Paraguay have both earned three points so far and are second and third, respectively.

However, all is lost for Turkey, even though the eight best third-placed sides also qualify for the knockouts, as they will finish last, regardless of the outcome of the final round of matches.

Nonetheless, we have outlined the Group D permutations for each nation below, as they all aim to qualify for the knockout stages.

What USA needs to qualify for World Cup knockout stages

Not only have USA secured a place in the round of 32, but they are also guaranteed the top spot in Group D.

Mauricio Pochettino's troops have six points due to their wins over Paraguay and Australia, and having the H2H tiebreaker over both teams, it is impossible for the USMNT to be overtaken.

What Australia needs to qualify for World Cup knockout stages

Australia kicked off their World Cup campaign with a 2-0 victory over Turkey before losing to the United States by two unanswered goals in their second group game.

With three points and a 0 goal difference, the Socceroos are second in Group D.

A victory or a draw would certainly guarantee a top-two finish for Australia, while a defeat would leave them in third place, and their chances of qualification would be hanging by a thread.

What Paraguay needs to qualify for World Cup knockout stages

After their humiliating 4-1 defeat against USA, Paraguay bounced back with an impressive 1-0 victory over Turkey, despite playing an entire half with 10 men.

As it stands, Gustavo Alfaro's men are third in Group D but are guaranteed a top-three finish.

The only way Paraguay can overtake Australia is by winning their final group game, but a draw would massively increase their chances of qualifying as one of the best third-place teams.

Moreover, the CONMEBOL side could still qualify for the round of 32 with a defeat, but their chances would be slim considering their negative goal difference.

What Turkey needs to qualify for World Cup knockout stages

Turkey were one of the favourites to win Group D, but have had a disappointing campaign so far. Despite registering over 60 shots, Vincenzo Montella's side have not scored a single goal, losing to Australia and Paraguay in their first two games.

Interestingly, the Turks have been eliminated, irrespective of the outcome of their final group game against USA.

This is because even if they were to finish level on points with either Paraguay or Australia, they would not own the H2H tiebreaker, having lost to both teams in this competition.