World Cup Group D permutations: What do USA, Australia need to qualify?

After the first round of fixtures in Group D, World Cup 2026 co-hosts USA got off to a great start with a 4-1 win over Paraguay to top the group.

Australia also started in winning ways, beating Turkey 2-0 to occupy second spot.

However, all is not lost for Paraguay or Turkey as the eight best third-placed sides also qualify for the knockouts, so a win in either of their final two group games would still give them a decent chance of going through.

Nonetheless, we have outlined the Group D permutations for each nation below, as they all aim to qualify for the knockout stages.

What USA needs to qualify for World Cup knockout stages

After winning their opening game, another victory for USA would see them reach the World Cup knockout stages.

It would put them on six points, and due to their better H2H record against other teams in the group, it would guarantee them a top-two finish.

A draw would also almost guarantee qualification, but the USMNT would then be relying on other results going their way.

If USA beat Australia and Turkey fail to beat Paraguay in their next match, then Mauricio Pochettino's side would also guarantee first place in the group, which in theory would give them an easier opponent in the next round.

What Australia needs to qualify for World Cup knockout stages

Similar to USA, another victory for Australia would send them through to the World Cup knockout stages.

They would then be on six points and guaranteed a top-two finish based on their H2H record.

Similarly, a draw would also almost guarantee qualification, but Australia would also then be relying on other results going their way.

If Australia beat USA and Paraguay fail to beat Turkey in their next game, then they would guarantee first place in the group instead.

What Turkey needs to qualify for World Cup knockout stages

After losing their first game, Turkey have it all to do to qualify for the World Cup knockout stages.

However, it is still possible for them, but to guarantee qualification they would have to win their remaining two games, starting with Paraguay and finishing with USA.

Four points from those matches should be enough too depending on other results, as even if they finish third, they would likely be one of the best eight third-placed teams, while even just one win could also be enough depending on other factors.

However, it should be noted that Turkey would be knocked out of the World Cup if they lose to Paraguay and USA avoid defeat against Australia.

What Paraguay needs to qualify for World Cup knockout stages

Paraguay are in a similar position to Turkey after defeat in their opening match.

Like the Turks, the South Americans would still guarantee qualification by winning their remaining two games against Turkey and Australia respectively.

Four points should also be enough, while a win could also see them through depending on other factors.

However, Paraguay would be knocked out of the World Cup if they lose to Turkey and Australia avoid defeat against USA in the next round of fixtures.