Villarreal are at home at the Ceramica this weekend in the Spanish top flight, and bidding to upset the defending champions. Our Villarreal vs Real Madrid prediction and La Liga betting tips consider whether they can stun Carlo Ancelotti’s side.
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Villarreal vs Real Madrid prediction: Baena to assist in home win
Key stats
- Our Villarreal vs Real Madrid betting tips take into account that Ancelotti’s men are winless in five away games against current top-eight teams in the Spanish top flight.
- 75% of Villarreal’s home games this season have produced over 2.5 goals.
- 83% of their home matches have seen both teams score.
Correct score prediction: Villarreal 2-1 Real Madrid
After 120 gruelling minutes at the Estadio Metropolitano on Wednesday, Real Madrid are unlikely to be in the best shape to go again less than 72 hours on.
Taking into account the quality that exists in this Villarreal side, with the likes of Alex Baena and Ayoze Perez sure to offer a real attacking threat, there’s a strong chance we get an upset here.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookies favour the visitors
- HOME: 2/1 (3.00) – 33.3%
- DRAW: 14/5 (3.80) – 26.3%
- AWAY: 11/10 (2.10) – 47.6%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The visitors are the favourites according to the Villarreal vs Real Madrid odds, with an implied probability of 47.6% that they win this match.
They come into the game following a 1-0 defeat against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, but in good spirits after their penalty shootout victory.
As for Villarreal, they suffered a setback last weekend, with a 1-0 defeat at Alaves doing damage to their top-four prospects.
For more from the upcoming matches, today’s free football tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Not a happy hunting ground for Los Blancos
Our Villarreal vs Real Madrid prediction suggests the Yellow Submarine can extend a five-game unbeaten run at home to this opposition in La Liga.
The sides played out a 4-4 thriller in this fixture last term, with Alexander Sorloth scoring all four Villarreal goals.
Spain La Liga 05/10/24
Real Madrid
Villarreal
Spain La Liga 19/05/24
Villarreal
Real Madrid
Spain La Liga 17/12/23
Real Madrid
Villarreal
Spain La Liga 08/04/23
Real Madrid
Villarreal
Spain Copa del Rey 19/01/23
Villarreal
Real Madrid
Villarreal preview: Moreno still sidelined
Marcelino is again missing his injured forward Gerard Moreno and winger Ilias Akhomach. Kiko Femenia is rated doubtful.
Predicted Lineup: Conde (GK), Cardona, Kambwala, Costa, Foyth, Baena, Comesana, Gueye, Pino, Pepe & A. Perez
Spain La Liga 13/04/25 W Real Betis 1 Villarreal 2 Spain La Liga 06/04/25 D Athletic Bilbao 0 Villarreal 0 Spain La Liga 30/03/25 W Getafe 1 Villarreal 2 Spain La Liga 15/03/25 L Real Madrid 2 Villarreal 1 Spain La Liga 08/03/25 L CD Alaves 1 Villarreal 0
Real Madrid preview: Ancelotti to freshen things up?
There are likely to be some changes after a busy fortnight for some of Real Madrid’s stars. The visitors have a fresh injury doubt over Ferland Mendy, while Dani Ceballos, Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao are definitely out.
Predicted Lineup: Courtois (GK), F. Garcia, Alaba, Rudiger, Vazquez, Bellingham, Camavinga, Tchouameni, Brahim, Vinicius & Mbappe
Spain La Liga 13/04/25 W CD Alaves 0 Real Madrid 1 UEFA Champions League 08/04/25 L Arsenal 3 Real Madrid 0 Spain La Liga 05/04/25 L Valencia 2 Real Madrid 1 Spain Copa del Rey 01/04/25 D Real Sociedad 4 Real Madrid 4 Spain La Liga 29/03/25 W Leganes 2 Real Madrid 3 
Player to watch – Alex Baena
Viillarreal can count on the exceptional creative abilities of Alex Baena on the left flank. He has registered seven assists in La Liga this term, and 21 since the start of last season, more than any other player in the division.
Baena to expose Madrid’s right-back problem?
The Spain international averages 3.2 key passes per game in La Liga this term. He’ll be hoping to exploit the visiting team’s obvious weakness at right-back.