After a dramatic night in Europe, Atletico Madrid are back at the Estadio Metropolitano this weekend. Our Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal prediction and La Liga betting tips consider whether Diego Simeone’s side can keep up the pressure on leaders Real Madrid at the top of the table.
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Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal prediction: Alvarez to fire in home win
Key stats
- Our Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal betting tips take into account that the Yellow Submarine have the third best goalscoring record in La Liga, with 1.90 per game on average.
- It’s 16 wins from 17 competitive matches for Atletico Madrid.
- Only Los Blancos can better their average of 2.60 points per home game in the Spanish top flight.
Correct score prediction: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Villarreal
There could be a bit of fatigue in the home camp after a busy night in Europe, but their squad is deep and they should be able to cope with a second game in five days.
Villarreal have looked weak defensively throughout this campaign, and while they could get on the scoresheet here, they may struggle to cope with a very strong Atleti front two.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Atleti win expected
- HOME: 4/6 (1.67) – 60.0%
- DRAW: 3/1 (4.00) – 25.0%
- AWAY: 18/5 (4.60) – 21.7%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The hosts are the favourites according to the Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal odds with an implied probability of 60.0% that they win this match.
Despite being reduced to 10 men in the first half, they came back to beat Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 in the Champions League on Tuesday, with Julian Alvarez scoring twice.
As for Villarreal, they put in one of their best performances of the season to beat Mallorca 4-0 on Monday, with all the goals coming between the 20th and 30th minutes.
For more from the upcoming action around Europe, today’s football tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: Goals normally guaranteed
Our Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal prediction suggests we’ll see both teams score for the sixth time in seven meetings.
Atleti are unbeaten in four meetings, since Villarreal’s impressive 2-0 win here under Unai Emery in August 2022.
Spain La Liga 19/08/24
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
Spain La Liga 01/04/24
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
Spain La Liga 12/11/23
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
Spain La Liga 04/06/23
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
Spain La Liga 21/08/22
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid preview: Double defensive blow for Simeone
The hosts are missing defenders Javi Galan and Clement Lenglet to suspensions. Alexander Sorloth is out injured.
Predicted Lineup: Oblak (GK), Reinildo, Le Normand, Gimenez, Molina, Gallagher, Barrios, De Paul, Simeone, Griezmann & Alvarez
Spain La Liga 10/05/25
W Real Sociedad 0 Atletico Madrid 4 Spain La Liga 03/05/25
D CD Alaves 0 Atletico Madrid 0 Spain La Liga 24/04/25
W Rayo Vallecano 0 Atletico Madrid 3 Spain La Liga 19/04/25
L Las Palmas 1 Atletico Madrid 0 Spain La Liga 14/04/25
W Valladolid 2 Atletico Madrid 4
Villarreal preview: Same again from Marcelino?
The visitors could be unchanged following their win on Monday. Ilias Akhomach and Alfonso Pedraza are still out injured.
Predicted Lineup: Junior (GK), Cardona, Foyth, Costa, Femenia, Baena, Parejo, Gueye, Pino, Barry & G. Moreno
Spain La Liga 10/05/25
W Girona 0 Villarreal 1 Spain La Liga 03/05/25
W Osasuna 2 Villarreal 4 Spain La Liga 27/04/25
W Espanyol 0 Villarreal 1 Spain La Liga 23/04/25
L Celta Vigo 3 Villarreal 0 Spain La Liga 20/04/25
D Real Sociedad 2 Villarreal 2
Player to watch – Julian Alvarez
After his midweek brace, Alvarez should be full of confidence heading into this match. The Argentina international has scored 16 in 31 appearances so far for his new club, with only 23 of those being starts.
Alvarez scoring late
His 90th minute winner against Leverkusen, was the sixth time this season that the former Man City man has netted in the final 15 minutes or stoppage time. 38% of his goals have come in that time period.