After barely making it out alive in the semi-finals, USA and Mexico are the last teams standing in the CONCACAF Gold Cup, and they will go head-to-head for the trophy on 7 July 2025. Understandably, we expect a close-call game, with the USMNT perhaps scraping a win, but you should still check out our top USA vs Mexico betting tips before you place a bet on this game.
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USA vs Mexico prediction: Home side’s fans will rejoice
Key Stats
- We saw under 2.5 goals in 70.0% of the last 10 USA vs Mexico head-to-heads.
- The last five matches between the two countries resulted in two victories for the USMNT, two draws, and only one Mexico success.
- Luna has five goal returns in this edition of the CONCACAF Gold Cup.
Correct score prediction: USA 2-0 Mexico
The key reason behind our top USA vs Mexico prediction is the sheer head-to-head data. The USMNT managed to defeat this opponent via a 2-0 score in two of the last six meetings. Seeing, as coach Pochettino’s boys scored two against Guatemala as well, we are very confident that the home side will succeed.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookmakers go with El Tri
- HOME: 41/20 (3.05) – 32.8%
- DRAW: 41/20 (3.05) – 32.8%
- AWAY: 31/20 (2.55) – 39.2%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The expected winners in the CONCACAF Gold Cup final are clearly the visitors. Mexico’s odds are priced at 31/20 (2.55), which translates to a 39.2% chance of winning. However, we still believe the USMNT, led by coach Mauricio Pochettino, has the quality to get the job done, despite only possessing a 32.8% shot at the trophy.
Moreover, we expect to see under 2.5 goals at NRG Stadium. The odds behind our favourite USA vs Mexico prediction are valued at 13/20 (1.65), and this means our betting recommendation has a whopping 60.6% chance of success.
Make the most of our key football betting tips today.
Most recent H2Hs: Pochettino wants to make things right
Pochettino has a negative 0-0-1 record, as the USA lost the last match against this opponent. However, the 53-year-old coach is determined to get a first-ever win over Mexico on Monday.
International Match 16/10/24
Mexico
USA
CONCACAF Nations League 25/03/24
USA
Mexico
CONCACAF Nations League 16/06/23
USA
Mexico
International Match 20/04/23
USA
Mexico
North & Central America - World Cup Qualifying 25/03/22
Mexico
USA
USA team news and form: USMNT need to step up their game
Yes, the USMNT did beat Guatemala, but it’s fair to say that with 20 shots at target, the visitors didn’t deserve to lose. However, coach Pochettino doesn’t have any major injury or suspension issues to deal with, so he should be able to find a way to prove our top USA vs Mexico predictions correct.
Predicted lineup: Freese (GK), Freeman, Richards, Ream, Arfsten, De La Torre, Adams, Tillman, Berhalter, Luna & Agyemang
CONCACAF Nations League 23/03/25
L
Canada
2
USA
1
CONCACAF Nations League 20/03/25
L
Panama
1
USA
0
International Match 23/01/25
W
Costa Rica
0
USA
3
International Match 18/01/25
W
Venezuela
1
USA
3
CONCACAF Nations League 19/11/24
W
Jamaica
2
USA
4
Mexico team news and form: Javier Aguirre to throw everything he’s got
The only injured player that coach Aguirre has to substitute is defensive midfielder Luis Chavez. He underwent an MRI scan, which revealed the worst possible news for the player – rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee.
Predicted lineup: Malagon (GK), Montes, Araujo, Vasquez, Rodriguez, Mora, Alvarez, Ruiz, Vega, Jimenez & Alvarado
CONCACAF Nations League 24/03/25
W
Panama
1
Mexico
2
CONCACAF Nations League 21/03/25
W
Canada
0
Mexico
2
African Nations C'ship Qualifying 22/01/25
L
River Plate
2
Mexico
0
CONCACAF Nations League 20/11/24
W
Honduras
0
Mexico
4
CONCACAF Nations League 16/11/24
L
Honduras
2
Mexico
0
Player to watch: Diego Luna
Coach Pochettino is undoubtedly happy with Luna’s contribution. The Real Salt Lake City star managed to score two game-winning goals in the semi-final against Guatemala, which helped the team advance to the much-desired final against Mexico.
Luna will start on Monday
In five CONCACAF Gold Cup matches, Luna scored three goals and supplied teammates with two valuable assists. You can see why we have him down as the player to watch in our professional USA vs Mexico prediction, right?