A place in the final of the CONCACAF Gold Cup will be at stake as USA and Guatemala lock horns at CITYPARK Stadium on Thursday, 3 July 2025.
View our free USA vs Guatemala predictions below.
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USA vs Guatemala predictions: Both teams to get on the scoresheet
Key stats
- Both teams’ last two respective games featured goals at both ends.
- USA have lost only once against Guatemala since 1984.
- Four of the last five meetings between these teams went above the 2.5-goal threshold.
Correct score prediction: USA 3-1 Guatemala
To be fair, Guatemala are coming off their biggest win yet, as they eliminated Canada on penalties in the previous round. However, they have a poor track record against the USMNT, having lost four of the last five meetings between these teams.
Keeping in mind that USA have a perfect four wins from four in this competition, we are backing the co-hosts to emerge victorious.
Pre-game odds and win probability: USA are odds-on favourites
- HOME: 2/7 (1.29) – 77.8%
- DRAW: 17/4 (5.25) – 19%
- AWAY: 8/1 (9.00) – 11.1%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
The winner of this CONCACAF Gold Cup semifinal match will face either Mexico or Honduras in the final.
Ahead of this skirmish, USA are the expected winners at 2/7 (1.29). Teams with these odds usually have a 77.8% probability of winning.
Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our USA vs Guatemala predictions.
It is also worth mentioning that USA led at half-time in four of their last five meetings with Guatemala. On that note, HT USA to win has an appealing look at 8/11 (1.73). That one has a 57.9% chance of landing.
Most recent H2Hs: First encounter in nine years
The most recent clash between USA and Guatemala took place in March 2016, during the qualifying rounds of the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
The USMNT have dominated Guatemala over the years, losing only once in the last 22 skirmishes between these sides (W16, D5).
Central America - World Cup Qualifying 30/03/16
USA
Guatemala
Central America - World Cup Qualifying 26/03/16
Guatemala
USA
African Nations C'ship Qualifying 03/07/15
USA
Guatemala
USA preview: Eyeing their eighth CONCACAF Gold Cup title
Damion Downs bagged the decisive sixth penalty goal during the shootout after three saves by Matt Freese to send the USA to the semi-finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup after the contest with Costa Rica ended in a 2-2 draw.
Left-back Max Arfsten righted his wrong of conceding a first-half penalty by assisting Diego Luna and scoring his first senior international goal. He is expected to keep his place, much like almost all the players who started the game last time out, as the contest finished without injury worries.
Malik Tillman has scored three and provided one assist so far for USA. He is expected to partner Sebastian Berhalter and Diego Luna in midfield, while Patrick Agyemang remains the lone striker.
Predicted lineup: Freese (GK), Freeman, Richards, Ream, Arsten, Adams, Torre, Berhalter, Tillman, Luna & Agyemang.
CONCACAF Nations League 23/03/25
L
Canada
2
USA
1
CONCACAF Nations League 20/03/25
L
Panama
1
USA
0
International Match 23/01/25
W
Costa Rica
0
USA
3
International Match 18/01/25
W
Venezuela
1
USA
3
CONCACAF Nations League 19/11/24
W
Jamaica
2
USA
4
Guatemala preview: Sights set on first final since 1969
Guatemala pulled the second upset of the knockout stage as they beat 10-man Canada 6-5 on penalties after the contest had ended 1-1 in regulation time.
With the shootout tied at 5-5 after six rounds, 19-year-old Canadian defender Luc de Fougerolles hit the crossbar and momentum swung for Los Chapines. Jose Morales stepped up and beat Dayne St. Clair in goal to send Guatemala into the last four.
Rubio Rubin scored the equaliser that sent Luis Tena’s men into the decisive penalty shootout. With two goals and an assist so far, the Charleston Battery forward is a crucial piece in Tena’s 4-3-3 system, which he is expected to carry on in this game.
Predicted lineup: Navarro (GK), Morales, Samayoa, Pinto, Herrera, Robles, Marroquin, Munoz, Escobar, Santis & Rubin.
CONCACAF Gold Cup Qualifying 26/03/25
W
Guyana
0
Guatemala
2
CONCACAF Gold Cup Qualifying 22/03/25
L
Guyana
3
Guatemala
2
International Match 16/03/25
W
Honduras
1
Guatemala
2
CONCACAF Nations League 16/10/24
L
Costa Rica
3
Guatemala
0
CONCACAF Nations League 12/10/24
W
Guyana
1
Guatemala
3
Player to watch: Maximilian Arfsten
Maximilian Arfsten has more assists than any other player in the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup. The Columbus Crew midfielder put in an impressive performance in USA's victory over Costa Rica, registering a goal and an assist. He will be called upon to provide goals on Thursday.