St Pauli vs Union Berlin prediction, odds & betting tips – 26/01/2025

St Pauli take on Union Berlin at the Millerntor-Stadion in the German Bundesliga on Sunday, 26 January. Read our German football predictions for the clash below.

St Pauli vs Union Berlin prediction: Margins could be slim

Key Stats

• 100% of St Pauli’s last five games in the Bundesliga have featured under 2.5 goals.
• Union Berlin have lost six of their last seven away matches in the Bundesliga.
• 67% of St Pauli’s Bundesliga fixtures this season have produced under 2.5 goals.
• Union Berlin have failed to score in five of their nine away games in the league this term.

Correct score prediction: St Pauli 1-0 Union Berlin

St Pauli earned a crucial win over relegation rivals Heidenheim (2-0) last time out and they could force another victory over a bottom six opponent when they host Union Berlin.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Union Berlin are slight underdogs

• HOME: 31/20 (2.55) – 39.2%
• DRAW: 21/10 (3.10) – 32.3%
• AWAY: 2/1 (3.00) – 33.3%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

St Pauli scored a significant win over Heidenheim last weekend to strengthen their bid for survival and they are 31/20 favourites to beat another relegation rival on Sunday.

Union Berlin managed to beat Mainz (2-1) in their last assignment, however, they have lost five times in a row on the road and offer little value at 2/1 to win here. View more of our latest football predictions and analysis on our dedicated page.

Most recent H2Hs: St Pauli targeting revenge

Union Berlin beat St Pauli 1-0 in the reverse fixture between the clubs in August. The Iron Ones have won each of their last three tussles with St. Pauli overall.

Germany Bundesliga I 30/08/24

Union Berlin

1

St Pauli

0

Europe Friendlies 21/12/22

Union Berlin

3

St Pauli

2

Germany DFB Pokal 01/03/22

Union Berlin

2

St Pauli

1

Germany Bundesliga II 04/02/19

St Pauli

3

Union Berlin

2

Germany Bundesliga II 26/08/18

Union Berlin

4

St Pauli

1

St Pauli preview: Smith and Dzwigala suspended

Elias Saad, Soeren Ahlers, Conor Metcalfe, Sascha Burchert, Simon Zoller, Karol Mets and Lars Ritzka are injured while Eric Smith and Adam Dzwigala are suspended. St Pauli could leapfrog Union in the table with a win on Sunday.

Predicted lineup: Nicolas (GK), Lainer, Itakura, Elvedi, Ullrich, Cvancara, Reitz, Weigl, Sander, Hack, Kleindienst

Germany Bundesliga I 11/05/25

D

Eintracht Frankfurt

2

St Pauli

2

Germany Bundesliga I 03/05/25

L

VfB Stuttgart

1

St Pauli

0

Germany Bundesliga I 27/04/25

D

Werder Bremen

0

St Pauli

0

Germany Bundesliga I 20/04/25

D

Bayer Leverkusen

1

St Pauli

1

Germany Bundesliga I 12/04/25

W

Holstein Kiel

1

St Pauli

2

Union Berlin preview: Ronnow still out

Frederik Ronnow, Yannic Stein, Kevin Vogt and Ivan Prtajin are in the treatment room for Union Berlin while Tom Rothe is serving a ban and also misses out. The Iron Ones secured a surprise win over highflying Mainz in their last outing.

Predicted lineup: Drewes (GK), Oermann, Ordets, Bernardo, Passlack, Bero, Sissoko, Wittek, De Wit, Broschinski, Boadu

Germany Bundesliga I 10/05/25

L

Heidenheim

3

Union Berlin

0

Germany Bundesliga I 03/05/25

D

Werder Bremen

2

Union Berlin

2

Germany Bundesliga I 27/04/25

D

Bochum

1

Union Berlin

1

Germany Bundesliga I 19/04/25

D

VfB Stuttgart

4

Union Berlin

4

Germany Bundesliga I 12/04/25

D

Bayer Leverkusen

0

Union Berlin

0

Player to watch – Morgan Guilavogui

St Pauli will need more from Morgan Guilavogui in the final third if they are to stay up this season, though last year’s summer signing did manage to net a crucial goal against Heidenheim last weekend.

Guilavogui chasing consistency

Guilavogui has notched just three times in the Bundesliga since his move from Lens to St Pauli last summer, though the 26-year-old has the talent to make more of an impact and he could embark on a goal-getting run having scored last weekend.