Belgium have a 3-1 deficit to overcome in their Nations League playoff second-leg clash with Ukraine at the Cegeka Arena in Genk on Sunday, 23 March. Read our Nations League predictions for the clash below.
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Belgium vs Ukraine prediction: Could visitors avoid defeat?
Key Stats
- Ukraine were much the better team in Thursday’s first leg, registering 2.82 in xG to Belgium’s 0.59 in an impressive 3-1 victory.
- Belgium have lost five and drawn one of their last six assignments in the Nations League.
- Five of Ukraine’s last seven away matches have featured goals at both ends.
- Belgium won four corners to Ukraine’s three in Thursday’s first leg in Murcia.
Correct score prediction: Belgium 2-2 Ukraine
Ukraine outplayed Belgium on neutral ground in Murcia (Spain) in an exciting first leg and they should be able to cause problems on the counter attack in Sunday’s return fixture. Look to a high-scoring draw in the markets here.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Ukraine offer decent value
- HOME: 21/50 (1.42) – 70.4%
- DRAW: 15/4 (4.75) – 21.1%
- AWAY: 6/1 (7.00) – 14.3%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Belgium were alarmingly below standard in their 3-1 first-leg defeat to Ukraine on Thursday, so it’s a little surprising to see them priced as short as 21/50 to bounce back with a victory on Sunday.
Ukraine will kick off Sunday’s second leg as massive 6/1 underdogs, though they were comfortably better than Belgium on Thursday and they look like top value at that price. View our latest football tips page for more Nations League predictions and analysis.
Most recent H2Hs: Recent history favours Ukraine
Ukraine won in impressive style in the first leg and they are unbeaten in two previous encounters with Belgium overall.
UEFA Nations League 20/03/25
Ukraine
Belgium
Euro 2024 26/06/24
Ukraine
Belgium
Belgium preview: Hosts could make changes
Orel Mangala, Amadou Onana and Romeo Lavia are missing for Belgium through injury. Timothy Castagne and Lois Openda are available again following suspensions. Head Coach Rudi Garcia could make changes to the starting XI that lost convincingly on Thursday evening.
Predicted lineup: Courtois (GK), Meunier, De Winter, Mechele, Mokio, Debast, Tielemans, De Ketelaere, Doku, De Bruyne, Lukaku
UEFA Nations League 23/03/25
W
Ukraine
0
Belgium
3
UEFA Nations League 20/03/25
L
Ukraine
3
Belgium
1
UEFA Nations League A 17/11/24
L
Israel
1
Belgium
0
UEFA Nations League A 14/11/24
L
Italy
1
Belgium
0
UEFA Nations League A 14/10/24
L
France
2
Belgium
1
Ukraine preview: Lunin to keep his place
Andriy Lunin started ahead of Anatolii Trubin between the sticks on Thursday and he should keep the number one spot again on Sunday. Ukraine used a 4-1-4-1 formation in the first leg, so expect a similar setup this weekend. Ukraine needed two goals from substitutes (Hutsuliak & Vanat) to win the first leg.
Predicted lineup: Lunin (GK), Konoplia, Zabarnyi, Matvienko, Mykolenko, Kaliuzhnyi, Tsygankov, Zinchenko, Shaparenko, Sudakov, Yaremchuk
UEFA Nations League 23/03/25
L
Belgium
3
Ukraine
0
UEFA Nations League 20/03/25
W
Belgium
1
Ukraine
3
UEFA Nations League B 19/11/24
W
Albania
1
Ukraine
2
UEFA Nations League B 16/11/24
D
Georgia
1
Ukraine
1
UEFA Nations League B 14/10/24
D
Czechia
1
Ukraine
1
Player to watch – Jorthy Mokio
At 17 years and 19 days, wonderkid Jorthy Mokio became the third-youngest player this century to make his debut for Belgium when he came on as a late substitute in Thursday’s first leg and the talented teen could be handed a first start on Sunday.
Mokio has obvious talent
Mokio’s call-up to the Belgium national team caused a bit of a stir due to the defender’s lack of involvement at first-team level for Dutch giants Ajax this season, though the teenager came off the bench on Thursday and he could continue his meteoric (and unexpected) rise with a first senior international start on Sunday.