World Cup 2022 Qatar: Top Scorer Predictions for this World Cup

The World Cup is here and questions regarding the future recipient of the Golden Boot award already started to occur. Some of the top scorers in football right now, like Erling Haaland, Alexander Isaak, Ciro Immobile, Roberto Firmino, and Ivan Toney will miss this World Cup. The fans of this beautiful game can relax and enjoy the World Cup as there are plenty of world-class strikers ready to score goals.

Golden Boot predictions for this World Cup

Here are the top favorites to win the Golden Boot this year.

Prediction 1: Lionel Messi @ 1/2 (1.50)

Perhaps a bit unfair, but if two players are joint-top in the goal-scoring department in the World Cup, the one with the most assists wins. And that’s Lionel Messi. Both he and Kylian Mbappe scored five goals in this campaign but La Pulga has three assists while the 23-year-old PSG superstar has only two.

Lionel Messi has to be careful as Kylian Mbappe needs only one assist to snatch the Golden Boot from Lionel Messi. If the two players have the same number of assists, the player with fewer minutes played wins. And that’s Kylian Mbappe.

Nevertheless, Lionel Messi has been a true magician with the ball this year in the World Cup. It would be highly unlikely for him to start disappointing just now. He said that he wants the 2022 World Cup to be his last World Cup game. And what better ending than winning the World Cup trophy, the Golden Ball, and the Golden Boot in one day?

Prediction 2: Kylian Mbappe @ 7/5 (2.40)

As we stated above, Kylian Mbappe needs only one assist to win the Golden Boot. He and Lionel Messi have five goals and both deserve to win the award. Perhaps Kylian Mbappe would’ve been in 1st place if Didier Deschamps didn’t opt to make experiments in the Tunisia game a couple of weeks ago.

Nevertheless, Kylian Mbappe will do his best to poach the most prestigious goal-scoring award there is. He had a couple of quiet games versus England, Morocco, and Tunisia but we’re convinced that his hard work and dedication are his biggest weapons. He will be the focal point of attack for coach Didier Deschamps once more and it will be surprising to see someone in the French national team outperform him on Sunday.

Prediction 3: Julian Alvarez @ 34/1 (35.00)

It sure is quite the honor for Julian Alvarez to even be mentioned in these predictions. But the 22-year-old Manchester City star deserves all the praise coming his way. He has been sensational up front for Argentina and is part of the reason why La Albiceleste got so far in the tournament.

Yes, Lionel Messi is the undisputed number one in the Argentine squad but he would’ve had issues in pulling Argentina forward if it wasn’t for Julian Alvarez and his outstanding goal-scoring capabilities.

Julian Alvarez scored four goals in the World Cup so far and he currently shares 3rd place with Olivier Giroud. Their chances of snatching the top scorer award are slim as they’ll have to be precise twice to outscore Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe.

World Cup 2022 – Golden boot odds

Before the start of the tournament, the bookies had Cristiano Ronaldo, Kylian Mbappe, and Lionel Messi down as favorites to win the Golden Boot award this year. And for the most part, they were right. Sure, Cristiano Ronaldo and his beloved Portugal are out of the World Cup but we still have Lionel Messi @1/2 (1.50) and Kylian Mbappe @7/5 (2.40) as the top favorites to win this prestigious award. The two of them have five goals each but Lionel Messi is the one with the most assists which is the 2nd tie-breaker.

Player Best Odds by

Lionel Messi

1/2 (1.50)

Kylian Mbappe

7/5 (2.40)

Julian Alvarez

34/1 (35.00)

Olivier Giroud

34/1 (35.00)

Andrej Kramaric

499/1 (500.00)

But the PSG superstars aren’t the only players in the World Cup who know how to score. Julian Alvarez and Olivier Giroud both stand a good chance of poaching the award. Stake and William Hill supply us with outstanding odds @34/1 (35.00) for either one of them winning the Golden Boot this year. Julian Alvarez scored a brace in the last game versus Croatia after a sensational solo run that left Dominik Livakovic shell-shocked and a tap-in from a great Lionel Messi pass.

Olivier Giroud’s chances, according to Stake, are the same as he too has four goals. Kylian Mbappe often gets nullified by an ultra-defensive approach toward him and it’s Olivier Giroud who’s the difference-maker. He also found the woodwork on two occasions. Either one of these two players could be a surprise winner in the Golden Boot race if they are at their lethal best on Sunday.

Top scorer predictions – History of the Golden Boot trophy

Being a top scorer during a world cup is a dream for every attacking player out there. Every edition of the tournament going all the way back to 1930 gave an award to the best goalscorer. Officially, the trophy was created back in 1982 and was known as the Golden Shoe. Players who scored the most goals in world cup editions before that are recognized as winners as well. In 2010 the reward got a new name and has been called the Golden Boot ever since. Argentinian Guillermo Stabile is the first player in history to win the Golden Boot. He scored eight goals at the inaugural edition of the world cup back in 1930.

top scorer predictions

From that point up until the 1994 world cup, several players could share the Golden Boot. It was changed in 1994 and a tie-breaker was introduced. If two or more players score the same amount of goals, the one who had more assists will win the trophy. It didn't quite work out as in that same world cup Oleg Salenko and Hristo Stoichkov shared the reward. Both of them scored six goals and had one assist. In 2006, another tie-breaker was added to the list. If two players had the same amount of goals and assists, the one who played fewer minutes will get the trophy.

No player in football history has won this award more than once. Looking at most top scorer predictions, it might happen during the world cup 2022. Harry Kane who won the trophy back in 2018 is once again among the favourites to win this coveted prize.

Golden Boot rules, regulations, and winners

During the 2022 FIFA World Cup, we witnessed some world-class finishing by the leading scorers in the past decade. Before the start of the tournament, the spotlight was shared between the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Romelu Lukaku, Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, Neymar, and Luis Suarez. Sadly, there can be only one winner and to ensure that, FIFA regulated heavily the Golden Boot award so that the award can’t be shared between two players.

Here are some of the most interesting rules, facts, and things you need to know regarding the Golden Boot award:

  • The Golden Boot award is received by the player who has the most goals in the World Cup.
  • If two or more players have the same number of goals, it’s the number of assists that determines the winner.
  • If the players are still equal after considering their assists, then the total minutes played in the tournament will be taken into account – the player with fewer minutes will win the Golden Boot.
  • The players ranked 2nd and 3rd will respectively receive a Silver and Bronze Boot.

It’s important to be aware of those rules as the Golden Boot race this year is fierce, to say the least. We have Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi sharing 1st place with five goals each but La Pulga has three assists while the 23-year-old PSG superstar has only two.

These are the different scenarios you can expect from the World Cup final at Lusail and the Messi vs Mbappe battle on Sunday:

  • Neither one of them has a goal contribution in the game – Lionel Messi wins due to having more assists.
  • Kylian Mbappe scores while Lionel Messi doesn’t – Kylian Mbappe wins due to having more goals.
  • Lionel Messi scores while Kylian Mbappe doesn’t – Lionel Messi wins due to having more goals.
  • Kylian Mbappe provides a teammate with an assist – Kylian Mbappe wins due to having fewer minutes played in the World Cup.

But this wasn’t always the case. These regulations are relatively new and we’ve had different rules regarding the Golden Boot in the past. While there has always been a top goal-scorer award, it was the 1982 World Cup that had the first official Golden Shoe award as it was known back then. The rules were a bit different and two players could’ve shared the award.

Such was the case in the 1994 World Cup in the USA when the Bulgarian legend Hristo Stoichkov and the Russian one, Oleg Salenko, both had six goals each. The two players had to share the award as they had one assist each as well. Starting in 2006, the 3rd tie-break rule was added and now we can have only one true winner.

Here are the players whose names will forever be in the pantheon of football as the greatest scorers in World Cup events:

  • Golden Boot winners
  • 2018 Russia – Harry Kane – 6 goals
  • 2014 Brazil – James Rodriguez – 5 goals
  • 2010 South Africa – Thomas Muller – 5 goals
  • Golden Shoe winners
  • 2006 Germany – Miroslav Klose – 5 goals
  • 2002 Japan/South Korea – Ronaldo – 8 goals
  • 1998 France – Davor Suker – 6 goals
  • 1994 USA – Hristo Stoichkov/Oleg Salenko – 6 goals each
  • 1990 Italy – Salvatore Schillaci – 6 goals
  • 1986 Mexico – Gary Lineker – 6 goals
  • 1982 Spain – Paolo Rossi – 6 goals
  • Top goalscorer winners
  • 1978 Argentina – Mario Kempes – 6 goals
  • 1974 West Germany – Gregorz Lato – 7 goals
  • 1970 Mexico – Gerd Muller – 10 goals
  • 1966 England – Eusebio – 9 goals
  • 1962 Chile – Florian Albert, Valentin Ivanov, Garrincha, Vava, Drazan Jerkovic, Leonel Sanchez – 4 goals each
  • 1958 Sweden – Just Fontaine – 13 goals
  • 1954 Switzerland – Sandor Kocsis – 11 goals
  • 1950 Brazil – Ademir – 8 goals
  • 1938 France – Leonidas – 7 goals
  • 1934 Italy – Oldrich Nejedly – 5 goals
  • 1930 Uruguay – Guillermo Stabile – 8 goals


Who is the Golden Boot favourite?

Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe both have five goals each but it's La Pulga who's the bookie's favorite.

Who won the last Golden Boot trophy?

Harry Kane is also the player who won the Golden Boot in 2018.

Which player holds the record for most goals at a world cup?

Miroslav Klose holds this record with 16 goals. However, Ronaldo can overtake him in Qatar as he already has 15 goals to his name.

Which nations are the favourites to lift the world cup trophy?

The trophy will be lifted on Sunday by either Argentina or France.

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Zack TC

Zack is a longtime football fan, writer, and bettor. He also has experience playing and coaching the game of football at a local level. His interest in the MLS, Liga MX and the Canadian Premier League adds a new dimension to the content we have at FootballWhispers.