The action continues in round 17 of the EFL Championship as Swansea and Derby County go head to head at the Swansea.com Stadium on Tuesday. Having failed to win the last five meetings between the two teams, the Rams will head into the game aiming to get one over the hosts and bounce back from their disappointing result against Watford at the weekend.
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Swansea vs Derby County prediction: Goal galore on the cards
Key stats
- There have been at least three goals scored in five of Swansea’s last six games, with a combined 20 goals netted across the six games.
- Derby have opened the scoring in each of their last six outings, but they have also left without a clean sheet in five of the six matches.
- Swansea have conceded the opening goal in four of their most recent five games, while Derby have led at half time in each of their last five games, going on to win four.
- Swansea are unbeaten in their last five against Derby , picking up four wins and one draw since a 2-0 loss in December 2020.
Correct score prediction: Swansea 2-2 Derby County
Derby County’s second-half collapse against Watford at the weekend saw their five-game winning streak come to an end, and they will journey to the Swansea.com Stadium looking to quickly bounce back.
While Swansea’s form is currently nothing to write home about, they have enjoyed the better of this fixture in recent meetings, and we predict they will make the most of their home advantage to force a share of the spoils.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Swansea backed by bookmakers
- HOME: 23/20 (2.15) – 46.5%
- DRAW: 21/10 (3.10) – 32.3%
- AWAY: 13/5 (3.60) – 27.8%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
With a 46.5% win probability, the bookmakers have Swansea down as favourites to come out on top in front of their home supporters on Tuesday.
Derby journey to the Swansea.com Stadium as the more in-form side, but they stand a 27.8% chance of securing maximum points, while there is a 32.3% possibility of the game ending all square.
While we take a deeper look into both teams, you can take a peek at some of FootballWhispers’ best picks and predictions for the midweek fixtures in today’s free football betting tips.
Most recent H2Hs: The Swans hold a slight upper hand
Swansea boast a slightly superior record against Derby across their last 10 encounters since December 2018, having picked up four wins, one more than the Rams’ three.
The Swans are unbeaten in each of the last five meetings between the two sides, including three wins from their most recent three encounters since a goalless draw in October 2021.
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Swansea preview: Out to stop the rot and pull clear of the danger zone
Swansea continued to plummet down the Championship standings as they suffered a humbling 3-0 defeat against Bristol City on Saturday.
In a one-sided affair at the Ashton Gate Stadium, Robert Dickie, Emil Riis Jacobsen and substitute Yu Hirakawa all hit the target to fire Bristol City to their first win in November.
This was a third defeat on the trot for Swansea, who have now failed to taste victory in their last five games, a run which saw them crash out of the EFL Cup courtesy of a 3-1 loss against Manchester City on October 29.
Darren O'Dea’s men now set out to stop the rot and secure their first win since beating Norwich City 2-1 on October 25, as they find themselves 20th in the Championship table, level on 17 points with 19th-placed Portsmouth.
Breaching opposition defences has not been a concern for the Swans, who have netted in four of their last five games, but their struggles have come at the back, where they have shipped 13 goals since the win over Norwich.
Predicted lineup: Vigouroux (GK), Key, Casey, Burgess, Tymon, Stamenic, Galbraith, Ronald, Cullen, Eom & Idah
Last five games
- Bristol City 3-0 Swansea
- Swansea 1-4 Ipswich Town
- Preston 2-1 Swansea
- Charlton 1-1 Swansea
- Swansea 1-3 Manchester City
Derby preview: Rams to cope without league top scorer
Derby were left spitting feathers on Saturday when they fell to a 3-2 home defeat against Watford after giving up their two-goal lead in the final 30 minutes at Pride Park.
Dion Sanderson and Sondre Klingen Langas hit the target to put Derby in the driver’s seat, but a 61st-minute strike from Luca Kjerrumgaard and a late brace from Edo Kayembe helped Watford turn the tie on its head in dramatic fashion.
This was a first defeat since October 18 for John Eustace’s men, who had won each of their previous five matches, scoring eight goals and conceding just three since the 1-0 loss against Oxford United at the Kassam Stadium.
Despite last weekend’s defeat, Derby could move level on points with fourth-placed Bristol City on Tuesday, as they sit 12th in the Championship table with 23 points from 16 matches.
However, the Rams will take to the pitch without league joint-top scorer Carlton Morris, who was forced off with a knee injury after just 18 minutes against Watford at the weekend.
Predicted lineup: Zetterstrom (GK), Langas, Batth, Clarke, Ward, Clark, Adams, Elder, Diaz, Weimann & Agyemang
Last five games
- Derby 2-3 Watford
- Blackburn 1-2 Derby
- Derby 2-1 Hull
- Sheffield United 1-3 Derby
- Derby 1-2 QPR
Player to watch — Patrick Agyemang
With Carlton Morris set for a spell on the sidelines, we expect Patrick Agyemang to spearhead Derby’s attack on Tuesday, and the American striker will be one to keep an eye on at the Swansea.com Stadium.
Morris will be a big miss for Eustace’s men, having netted 10 goals so far to lead the way in the league’s Golden Boot race, alongside Coventry’s Brandon Thomas-Asante, who also has 10 goals to his name.
With five goal involvements in nine league starts, Agyemang has proven capable of leading the line for Derby, and we expect the 25-year-old to team up with Ben Brereton Diaz and Andreas Weimann in the front three.