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Sturm Graz face a difficult route into the Champions League playoff round as they welcome Fenerbahce to Merkur Arena for Tuesday's third qualifying round second leg.
A 2-0 defeat in last week's meeting in Istanbul has left the Austrian champions with plenty of ground to make up, while the Yellow Canaries are now within three matches of potentially ending their wait for another appearance in the competition's main stage.
Read our prediction, preview and betting tips for the game below, and make sure to check out our today's betting tips page for more of our expert predictions.
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce key stats
- Fenerbahce have conceded no more than one goal in each of their last five away games in UEFA competition.
- There have been under 2.5 goals in each of Sturm Graz's last four games.
- Fenerbahce's previous away match in the Champions League ended in a 1-1 scoreline at Gornik Zabrze.
- Sturm Graz have lost just one of their five competitive matches this season.
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce preview: Austrian comeback mission faces stern test
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce — Tale of the Tape
| Sturm Graz | vs | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| 4th (Austrian Football Bundesliga) | Position | N/A |
| 4 | Points | N/A |
| 3 | Goals For | N/A |
| 1 | Goals Against | N/A |
| 1 | Clean Sheets | N/A |
| 9th | Home / Away Rank | N/A |
Sturm Graz face the difficult task of overturning a two-goal deficit after suffering a 2-0 defeat in Istanbul last week, leaving the Austrian champions needing a significant improvement if they are to preserve their Champions League ambitions.
The Graz side had enjoyed a comfortable passage past Hearts in the previous qualifying round, winning the home leg 4-0 before advancing on a 5-1 aggregate scoreline to set up this considerably tougher assignment.
Fabio Ingolitsch's team were punished for their sluggish beginning in Istanbul as Talisca opened the scoring early, while Mason Greenwood added a second shortly before the interval to put Fenerbahce firmly in command.
Sturm responded positively at the weekend by beating Hartberg 2-0 away from home, with Nelson Weiper playing a decisive role in a result that provides some encouragement ahead of their attempt to overturn the deficit.
The Austrian club have also shown that they can be a formidable opponent at Merkur Arena, where their six victories from nine European matches underline why Fenerbahce cannot afford to approach the second leg expecting a straightforward evening.
Sturm's route back into the Champions League will disappear if they fail to overturn the deficit, although elimination from this tie would at least guarantee another appearance in the Europa League league phase after reaching that stage last season.
Meanwhile, Fenerbahce arrive in Graz with a sizeable advantage after producing a disciplined performance in the first leg to claim a 2-0 victory and put themselves within touching distance of the playoff round.
The Turkish giants began their qualifying campaign by overcoming Gornik Zabrze 2-1 on aggregate, meaning they have already negotiated one two-legged tie successfully before taking control of this encounter.
Ismail Kartal's appointment in June has given Fenerbahce a fresh opportunity to end a lengthy wait for Champions League football, with the Istanbul club last reaching the competition's main stage in the 2008-09 season.
The Yellow Canaries also have the added incentive of reaching the playoff round, where they would meet either Sparta Prague or Lyon, giving them another hurdle to clear before potentially returning to Europe's elite competition.
Fenerbahce will be particularly keen to avoid a repeat of last season's disappointment, when they were eliminated at this stage under Jose Mourinho, as Kartal attempts to guide the club further than his predecessor managed.
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce form guide & betting tips
| Sturm Graz | vs | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
W
W
D
L
W
|
Form |
W
D
W
|
| 8 | Goals For | 4 |
| 3 | Goals Against | 1 |
W
W
L
|
Champions League |
W
D
W
|
Whispers predicts: Sturm Graz 1-1 Fenerbahce
Sturm Graz's home record in European competition means they should have enough attacking intent to make the second leg competitive, particularly after responding to their Istanbul defeat with a convincing victory at Hartberg.
Fenerbahce, however, have little reason to take unnecessary risks with a two-goal advantage already secured, making a controlled approach more logical as they seek to protect their lead rather than turn the tie into an open contest.
The Fenerbahce win or draw and under 3.5 goals at 10/11 (1.91) appeals as the standout option, combining the visitors' strong position in the tie with the expectation of another relatively restrained encounter.
Under 2.5 goals at 7/10 (1.70) also looks possible, particularly with both sides coming into the second leg after a sequence of matches in which scoring has been limited.
A 1-1 correct score at 13/2 (7.50) provides an attractive outsider selection, as Sturm should be capable of finding a response at Merkur Arena while Fenerbahce's advantage means the visitors do not necessarily need to chase a victory.
> Sturm Graz under 1.5 goals at 2/5 (1.40) | Likelihood: Probable
> Under 2.5 goals at 7/10 (1.70) | Likelihood: Possible
> Fenerbahce win or draw and under 3.5 goals | Likelihood: Possible
> Correct score – Sturm Graz 1-1 Fenerbahce at 13/2 (7.50) | Likelihood: Outsider