One of the biggest fixtures on the German football calendar returns as St. Pauli prepare to welcome noisy neighbours Hamburger SV to the Millerntor Stadion.
Can the hosts escape the bottom of the standings, or will the visitors end their winless run away from home? Read our St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV prediction and preview to find out, but don’t forget to also check out our other Bundesliga predictions here.
Contents
- 1 St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV prediction: Visitors crave derby revenge
- 2 Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookies stumped ahead of derby
- 3 Most recent H2Hs: History of drama
- 4 St. Pauli preview: Shocking form and injury double
- 5 Hamburger SV preview: Dreadful away record
- 6 Player to watch; Robert Glatzel
St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV prediction: Visitors crave derby revenge
Key Stats
St. Pauli kicked off 2026 with successive defeats to Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund.
St. Pauli are the only Bundesliga club yet to score a league home goal before the 30th minute.
Hamburg will be looking to avoid a sixth straight Bundesliga away defeat.
Seven of Hamburg’s last nine Bundesliga games saw both teams score.
Correct score prediction: St. Pauli 2-2 Hamburger SV
The mother of all German derbies is back as the two rivals meet at the Millerntor in a Bundesliga fixture for the first time since 2010.
Both clubs are embroiled in a relegation battle this season, with St. Pauli currently rooted to the bottom of the standings, and HSV sitting four points above the bottom three.
Despite being among the two lowest goalscoring clubs in the Bundesliga, the epic rivalry between these two sides often tends to goals-galore – in four of their last seven, to be precise.
What’s more, HSV have revenge on their minds after being beaten by their arch rivals 2-0 at the Volksparkstadion.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookies stumped ahead of derby
HOME: 3/2 (2.50) – 40.00%
DRAW: 11/5 (3.20) – 31.30%
AWAY: 9/5 (2.80) – 35.70%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Looking at those St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV odds, it is clear that the bookmakers are really not sure which way this game is going to go. The hosts are slight favourites, but only by narrow margins.
If you liked our predictions for this game, remember to also check our betting tips for today.
Most recent H2Hs: History of drama
This is not one of the biggest fixtures in German football for no reason. St. Pauli and HSV tend to deliver epic fixtures full of goals, cards, and insane moments.
The last meeting took place in August when St. Pauli powered to a 2-0 win away at the Volksparkstadion. That was their first derby win since 2022, ending a three-match dry run.
Hamburger SV, on the other hand, have won two of the last four meetings, though their last victory at the Millerntor came all the way back in 2019.
Germany Bundesliga I 29/08/25
Hamburg
St Pauli
Germany Bundesliga II 03/05/24
Hamburg
St Pauli
Germany Bundesliga II 01/12/23
St Pauli
Hamburg
Germany Bundesliga II 21/04/23
Hamburg
St Pauli
Germany Bundesliga II 14/10/22
St Pauli
Hamburg
St. Pauli preview: Shocking form and injury double
St Pauli have slumped to the bottom of the league standings after losing their first two matches of 2026. The team will be desperate to change things as they look to mount a survival bid.
The hosts have only managed one league win in four months, which came in December against fellow strugglers Heidenheim. In fact, most of their points this season have come against teams around them in the standings.
The hosts will have to attempt to turn their form around without midfielder Jackson Irvine or centre-back David Nemeth, who are both carrying injuries.
Predicted lineup: Vasilj (GK), Dzwigala, Wahl, Mets, Pyrka, Sands, Smith, Ritzka, Fujita, Kaars & Lage
Last five matches
Borussia Dortmund 3-2 FC St. Pauli (Bundesliga)
VfL Wolfsburg 2-1 FC St. Pauli (Bundesliga)
FC St. Pauli 0-0 SV Werder Bremen (Club friendlies)
FSV Mainz 05 0-0 FC St. Pauli (Bundesliga)
FC St. Pauli 2-1 1. FC Heidenheim (Bundesliga)
Hamburger SV preview: Dreadful away record
Looking at home form alone, Hamburger SV would be in the fight for European places this season. Unfortunately for them, that is not how football works.
The visitors have won just two points on the road this season, managing to score four times and concede 18 goals along the way.
On top of that, Hamburg striker Yussuf Poulsen is set to miss out on selection due to an ankle injury. However, the player is said to be on the mend, and a return is in sight.
Predicted lineup: Fernandes (GK), Capaldo, Vuskovic, Torunarigha, Jatta, Lokonga, Remberg, Muheim, Vieira, Downs & Dompe
Last five matches
Hamburger SV 0-0 Borussia Monchengladbach (Bundesliga)
SC Freiburg 2-1 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
Hamburger SV 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga)
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 4-1 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
Hamburger SV 3-2 SV Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
Player to watch; Robert Glatzel
Hamburg’s Robert Glatzel has scored six of his last seven goals after the 60th minute. This includes a winner in their only competitive away victory this season.
The striker returned from injury against Borussia Monchengladbach last weekend and Glatzel will be looking to make an impact against HSV's biggest rivals – something he knows about well having played in Hamburg for seven years.