The final of the UEFA Nations League on Sunday night will serve up an Iberian derby, when Portugal face neighbours Spain at the Allianz Arena. Both nations are looking to win the competition for a second time, after Portugal clinched the inaugural title, and Spain won the previous edition in 2023.
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Portugal vs Spain prediction: La Roja to edge this Iberian derby
Key stats
- Spain have scored 23 goals in their nine UEFA Nations League games this campaign.
- Both teams have scored in each of Spain's last five fixtures.
- Portugal have won just one of their last four games outside of their home country, but that did come on Wednesday against Germany.
Correct score prediction: Portugal 1-2 Spain
Despite all of Portugal's talent and strength in depth, no international side has been able to handle Spain for over two years, and their devastating wide players could cause all sorts of trouble for Roberto Martinez's men in this final, and ultimately be the deciding factor.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Spain odds-on to retain title
- PORTUGAL: 14/5 (3.80) – 26.3%
- DRAW: 27/10 (3.70) – 27.0%
- SPAIN: 10/11 (1.91) – 52.4%
With neither side benefiting from home advantage, this final really could go either way, but with form of Lamine Yamal in particular, Spain will enter as favourites, with an implied probability of 52.4% to win.
Portugal are priced at 14/5, which are similar odds to what they started against Germany, and they won on that occasion, so Martinez's men cannot be written off, but Spain's long unbeaten run speaks for itself, hence why they are 4/9 to lift the trophy.
For more predictions on the weekend’s football, take a look at our football betting tips page.
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Most recent H2Hs: Spain dominant over the years
Portugal have only ever beaten Spain in a competitive fixture once, back on home soil at Euro 2004, and after drawing 3-3 at the 2018 World Cup, the two met in the group stage of the last Nations League campaign, with La Roja beating their Iberian neighbours on the final matchday to pip them to top spot.
UEFA Nations League A 27/09/22
Portugal
Spain
UEFA Nations League 02/06/22
Spain
Portugal
International Match 04/06/21
Spain
Portugal
International Match 07/10/20
Portugal
Spain
World Cup 2018 15/06/18
Portugal
Spain
Portugal preview: Martinez to adjust his XI
After going 1-0 down to Germany on Wednesday, Martinez responded with a triple substitution that swung the balance in their favour, with Francisco Conceicao making a big impact in particular.
The Juventus winger will feel he deserves to come into the XI, along with Vitinha, who only started as a sub a few days after winning the Champions League with Paris Saint-Germain.
Predicted lineup: Diogo Costa (GK), Dalot, Ruben Dias, Goncalo Inacio, Nuno Mendes, Joao Neves, Vitinha, Bernardo, Conceicao, Ronaldo & Fernandes
UEFA Nations League 23/03/25
W
Denmark
2
Portugal
5
UEFA Nations League 20/03/25
L
Denmark
1
Portugal
0
UEFA Nations League A 18/11/24
D
Croatia
1
Portugal
1
UEFA Nations League A 15/11/24
W
Poland
1
Portugal
5
UEFA Nations League A 15/10/24
D
Scotland
0
Portugal
0
Spain preview: One change from Stuttgart stunner
Manager Luis de la Fuente will be concerned at how his side nearly threw a four-goal lead away in their 5-4 win over France on Thursday, but he should keep largely the same XI, with a front three of Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal and Nico Williams set to cause problems.
Fabian Ruiz was only a substitute after being part of the victorious PSG team last week, but he should come into a midfield which is still strong, but is missing the hugely important Rodri.
Predicted lineups: Unai Simon (GK), Porro, Le Normand, Huijsen, Cucurella, Merino, Fabian, Pedri, Yamal, Oyarzabal & Williams
UEFA Nations League 23/03/25
W
Netherlands
3 (4)
Spain
3 (5)
UEFA Nations League 20/03/25
D
Netherlands
2
Spain
2
UEFA Nations League A 18/11/24
W
Switzerland
2
Spain
3
UEFA Nations League A 15/11/24
W
Denmark
1
Spain
2
UEFA Nations League A 15/10/24
W
Serbia
0
Spain
3
Player to watch: Lamine Yamal
Yamal seems to be man of the match every times he stops onto the pitch at the moment, and Thursday night was no exception, as the teenage sensation scored twice in Spain's 5-4 semi-final success over France.
The 17-year-old will now come up against Cristiano Ronaldo for the first time, but the pressure of big matches has never flustered the young winger, and another match-winner performance will keep him in the Ballon d'Or conversation.