Spain and France meet on Thursday in a repeat of their Euro 2024 semi-final from last summer. Our Spain vs France prediction considers which team is most likely to progress to the UEFA Nations League final.
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Spain vs France prediction: Yamal to assist in win for La Roja
Key stats
- Our Spain vs France betting tips take into account that Luis de la Fuente’s side are unbeaten in 18 internationals.
- They haven’t lost any of their last 23 competitive matches.
- France have scored more than once in just 36% of their matches since the start of Euro 2024.
Correct score prediction: Spain 2-1 France
This should be a competitive game between two of the best teams in Europe, but Spain have been the more impressive side over the past couple of years, and they haven’t suffered a competitive defeat since losing to Scotland in March 2023.
France haven’t fully convinced over the past 18 months, and they may come out second best here. They aren’t helped by the fact that so many of their players were involved in last weekend’s Champions League final.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bookies favour Spain
- SPAIN: 7/5 (2.40) – 41.7%
- DRAW: 11/5 (3.20) – 31.3%
- FRANCE: 2/1 (3.00) – 33.3%
*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
La Roja are the favourites according to the Spain vs France odds, with an implied probability of 41.7% that they win this match.
They reached the semi-finals after seeing off The Netherlands on penalties after a thrilling 3-3 draw at Mestalla back in March.
France also needed penalties to see off Croatia, after goals from Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembele in Paris levelled their quarter-final at 2-2 on aggregate.
For more from the upcoming matches in Europe, today’s football betting tips look at some of the best picks.
Most recent H2Hs: A mixed picture
Our Spain vs France prediction suggests this game will go the way of La Roja, but this has been a relatively even rivalry in recent years, with two wins each in the last four meetings.
Lamine Yamal and Dani Olmo grabbed the goals as Spain came from behind to beat France 2-1 in the semi-finals of Euro 2024.
Euro 2024 09/07/24
Spain
France
UEFA Nations League 10/10/21
Spain
France
International Match 28/03/17
France
Spain
International Match 04/09/14
France
Spain
Spain preview: Favourites in good shape
There have been no withdrawals from De la Fuente’s initial squad, although he elected against calling up Rodri who has only just returned to fitness. The main uncertainty is in defence, with Pau Cubarsi, Dean Huijsen and Robin Le Normand competing for two places.
Predicted Lineup: Simon (GK), Porro, Cubarsi, Le Normand, Cucurella, Pedri, Ruiz, Yamal, Olmo, Williams & Morata
UEFA Nations League 23/03/25
W Netherlands 3 (4) Spain 3 (5) UEFA Nations League 20/03/25
D Netherlands 2 Spain 2 UEFA Nations League A 18/11/24
W Switzerland 2 Spain 3 UEFA Nations League A 15/11/24
W Denmark 1 Spain 2 UEFA Nations League A 15/10/24
W Serbia 0 Spain 3
France preview: Decisions for Deschamps
Didier Deschamps must decide whether the seven players who were involved in the Champions League final are ready to be considered for a start in this game. He’s already short on defensive options, with Jules Kounde, Dayot Upamecano and William Saliba not in the squad.
Predicted Lineup: Maignan (GK), Gusto, Konate, L. Hernandez, Digne, Tchouameni, Kone, Rabiot, Olise, Mbappe & Kolo Muani
UEFA Nations League 23/03/25
W Croatia 0 France 2 UEFA Nations League 20/03/25
L Croatia 2 France 0 UEFA Nations League A 17/11/24
W Italy 1 France 3 UEFA Nations League A 14/11/24
D Israel 0 France 0 UEFA Nations League A 14/10/24
W Belgium 1 France 2
Player to watch – Lamine Yamal
Yamal announced his arrival to the world with a brilliant goal the last time these sides met. He has matured as a player since then, with nine goals and a league-high 13 assists in the Spanish top flight this season.
Spain’s key creative force
Even at 17, the Barcelona winger is already one of the most important players for club and country. He registered four assists at Euro 2024, and has created more than 20 goals across Barca and Spain matches since the start of that tournament.