Southampton vs Burnley prediction
An improving Southampton could edge out Burnley in the FA Cup. (Photo by Imago)
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Under 2.5 total goals

80% of Burnley’s last ten games in all competitions have featured under 2.5 goals.

Premier League strugglers Southampton take on Championship side Burnley at St. Mary’s Stadium in the FA Cup on Saturday, 8 February. Read our FA Cup betting tips for the contest below.

Southampton vs Burnley prediction: Low-scoring contest anticipated

Key Stats

  • 80% of Burnley’s last ten games in all competitions have featured under 2.5 goals.
  • Burnley have failed to score in four of their last nine assignments in league and cup.
  • Southampton beat Championship outfit Swansea 3-0 in the previous round of the FA Cup.
  • Southampton have picked up more cards (73) than any other team in the Premier League this season.

Correct score prediction: Southampton 1-0 Burnley

Burnley have failed to score in four of their last nine games while 80% of their last ten fixtures have featured under 2.5 goals. Expect margins to be similarly slim when they visit Southampton.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Saints are favourites

  • HOME: 3/4 (1.75) – 57.1%
  • DRAW: 23/10 (3.30) – 30.3%
  • AWAY: 17/4 (5.25) – 19%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Southampton beat relegation rivals Ipswich in their last outing and the Saints have been playing better football in general of late. The hosts look like good value at 3/4 to win on Saturday.

Burnley are in the midst of a 19-game unbeaten run in all competitions, though they score very few goals and have just a 19% of outscoring Southampton here. View more of our latest football predictions and analysis on our dedicated page.

Most recent H2Hs: Southampton have had the better of it

Southampton have lost only one of their last four meetings with Burnley. The clubs’ last encounter in April 2022 (Premier League) finished 2-0 in the Clarets’ favour, however.

England Premier League 21/04/22

Burnley

Burnley

2
Southampton

Southampton

0

England Premier League 23/10/21

Southampton

Southampton

2
Burnley

Burnley

2

England Premier League 04/04/21

Southampton

Southampton

3
Burnley

Burnley

2

England Premier League 26/09/20

Burnley

Burnley

0
Southampton

Southampton

1

England Premier League 15/02/20

Southampton

Southampton

1
Burnley

Burnley

2

Southampton preview: Downes and Stephens are out

Ross Stewart, Cameron Archer, Ryan Manning, Flynn Downes and Jack Stephens are out of action for Southampton while Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Nathan Wood-Gordon and Ryan Fraser could also miss out.

Predicted lineup: Ramsdale (GK), Bree, Bednarek, Harwood-Bellis, Walker-Peters, Ugochukwu, Aribo, Welington, Fernandes, Gronbaek, Onuachu

England Premier League 10/05/25

D

Man City

Man City

0

Southampton

Southampton

0

England Premier League 03/05/25

L

Leicester

Leicester

2

Southampton

Southampton

0

England Premier League 26/04/25

L

Fulham

Fulham

2

Southampton

Southampton

1

England Premier League 19/04/25

D

West Ham

West Ham

1

Southampton

Southampton

1

England Premier League 12/04/25

L

Aston Villa

Aston Villa

3

Southampton

Southampton

0

Burnley preview: Visitor’s squad looks strong

Burnley have very few injury issues, though attacker Enock Agyei is a slight doubt. The Clarets are in second place in the Championship and Burnley beat Oxford 1-0 in their last assignment.

Predicted lineup: Trafford (GK), Roberts, Egan-Riley, Esteve, Humphreys, Cullen, Laurent, Anthony, Mejbri, Foster, Flemming

England Championship 03/05/25

W

Millwall

Millwall

1

Burnley

Burnley

3

England Championship 26/04/25

W

QPR

QPR

0

Burnley

Burnley

5

England Championship 21/04/25

W

Sheff Utd

Sheff Utd

1

Burnley

Burnley

2

England Championship 18/04/25

W

Watford

Watford

1

Burnley

Burnley

2

England Championship 11/04/25

W

Norwich

Norwich

1

Burnley

Burnley

2

Player to watch – Paul Onuachu

Paul Onuachu has been getting more game time for Southampton since the appointment of new head coach Ivan Juric and the Nigerian attacker has been taking his opportunities with both hands.

Southampton vs Burnley prediction
Paul Onuachu has been in good goal-scoring form for Southampton. (Photo by Imago)

Onuachu is hitting form

Onuachu scored a crucial goal against Ipswich last weekend and that was his second strike in his last three appearances. The 28-year-old is playing with plenty of confidence, so he should be a threat on Saturday.


Simon Winter is a professional football tipster and sports journalist with over ten years in the industry. Best known for his time with Racing Post, Simon has also had work published by Freesupertips, Bloomberg Sports, bet365, Paddy Power, Colossus Bets, These Football Times and more. Simon covers the Bundesliga and Serie A for Football Whispers.