Brighton vs Southampton prediction
Brighton in action against Bournemouth - Photo by Imago
🔥 Our Hot tip

Over 2.5 Brighton goals

Southampton concede an average of 2.75 goals per home game in the Premier League.

Bottom-of-the-table Southampton go in search of their third league win of the campaign on Saturday when they play host to Brighton in a 15:00 kick-off.

Southampton vs Brighton prediction: At least three goals for the visitors?

Key Stats

  • Brighton have scored exactly three goals in each of their last two wins against the Saints and put three goals past Chelsea last time out.
  • Both teams have scored in 69% of the Seagull's away games this season and have Saturday's guests have only won-to-nil in 23% of their games on the road.
  • Southampton score an average of 0.75 goals per home game and have only managed to keep clean sheets in 8% of their matches at St Mary's.

Correct score prediction: Southampton 1-3 Brighton

Brighton have won two of their last three encounters with Southampton and on both occasions, the scoreline ended 3-1. Having put three goals past Chelsea last time out and another three in a recent away game against Manchester United, we're backing Brighton to win by three goals to one this weekend, especially as the Saints have lost three of their last five league games by the same scoreline.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Brighton backed by the bookmakers

  • HOME: 19/4 (5.75) – 17.4%
  • DRAW: 7/2 (4.50) – 22.2%
  • AWAY: 8/13 (1.62) – 61.9%

*odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change

Brighton are the expected winner of this game with a probability of 61.9% and we can't see this game ending in anything but victory for the visitors.

You can find all our predictions for today's games on our football betting tips page.

Most recent H2Hs: The Seagulls lead

Brighton have won two and drawn three of their last five games against Southampton in the Premier League with the pair drawing 1-1 when they met in November at the AmEx.

England Premier League 29/11/24

Brighton

Brighton

1
Southampton

Southampton

1

England Premier League 21/05/23

Brighton

Brighton

3
Southampton

Southampton

1

England Premier League 26/12/22

Southampton

Southampton

1
Brighton

Brighton

3

England Premier League 24/04/22

Brighton

Brighton

2
Southampton

Southampton

2

England Premier League 04/12/21

Southampton

Southampton

1
Brighton

Brighton

1

Southampton preview: Another home defeat

The Saints would have been expecting a tough 90 minutes at home against in-form Bournemouth, and that's just what they got.

The visitors went in at the break 2-0 up and although Kamaldeen Sulemana pulled a goal back for the home side in the 72nd minute, the Cherries scored again late on to wrap up a 3-1 victory.

Flynn Downes, Ross Stewart, Ryan Fraser, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Jack Stephens and Adam Lallana are all doubts for the Brighton game due to injury.

Predicted lineup: Ramsdale (GK), Bednarek, Bree, Walker-Peters, Wood-Gordon, Welington, Aribo, Smallbone, Sulemana, Fernandes & Onuachu

England Premier League 10/05/25

D

Man City

Man City

0

Southampton

Southampton

0

England Premier League 03/05/25

L

Leicester

Leicester

2

Southampton

Southampton

0

England Premier League 26/04/25

L

Fulham

Fulham

2

Southampton

Southampton

1

England Premier League 19/04/25

D

West Ham

West Ham

1

Southampton

Southampton

1

England Premier League 12/04/25

L

Aston Villa

Aston Villa

3

Southampton

Southampton

0

Brighton preview: Back-to-back wins against Chelsea

Not content with knocking Chelsea out of the FA Cup six days earlier, Brighton secured all three points against the Londoners in the Premier League last Friday.

Karou Mitoma scored one of the goals of the season in the 27th minute to put Brighton in front and the Seagull's pacey winger Yankuba Minteh made it 2-0 before the break. Minteh scored the all-important third goal of the game just after the hour mark to wrap up an impressive 3-0 victory for the home side.

Igor Julio, Ferdi Kadioglu, James Milner, Jason Steele, Pervis Estupinan, Solomon March and Lewis Dunk make up the list of possible absentees for the Seagulls this weekend.

Predicted lineup: Verbruggen (GK), Webster, Veltman, Lamptey, van Hecke, Mitoma, Hinshelwood, Baleba, Welbeck, Rutter & Minteh

England Premier League 10/05/25

W

Wolverhampton

Wolverhampton

0

Brighton

Brighton

2

England Premier League 04/05/25

D

Newcastle

Newcastle

1

Brighton

Brighton

1

England Premier League 26/04/25

W

West Ham

West Ham

2

Brighton

Brighton

3

England Premier League 19/04/25

L

Brentford

Brentford

4

Brighton

Brighton

2

England Premier League 12/04/25

D

Leicester

Leicester

2

Brighton

Brighton

2

Player to watch: Karou Mitoma

Karou Mitoma has been a fantastic addition to Brighton and the Premier League ever since he made the move to England from Belgian side Unuon Saint-Gilloise in 2022.

Mitoma
Mitoma in action against West Ham – Photo by Imago

This season, the Japanese international joint-top scores in the Premier League for Brighton with six goals and the 27-year-old has also chipped in with three assists.

Scored a goal-of-the-season contender against Chelsea

After his goal-of-the-season contender against Chelsea last time out, we're expecting another big performance from Mitoma who should cause the Southampton defence plenty of headaches.

epl predictions this weekend

James developed his own blog covering football transfers from across Europe's big leagues before becoming a regular match preview and betting tips writer and now has 10+ years experience covering club and international leagues and competitions across the globe.